Fredrikstad1Kristiansund0

HT 1–0Sun 16 Aug 2026, 17:15 Predictions graded

Predictions7–370%

Edges5–183%

PossPossession 46%–54%ShotsShots 10–18On targetOn target 4–3CornersCorners 1–10

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 13 Aug 2026, 08:15 · Europe/Bucharest

Fredrikstad are favoured at home against a poor Kristiansund away side, but the match winner price offers no value.

The best edges are the first-half draw at 2.25 (+11 points) and under 2.5 goals at 2.00 (+8 points), driven by both teams' low scoring rates.

Context

Kristiansund away record: 1W 1D 6L, 5 goals scored in 8 matches.
- They failed to score in 3 of their last 5 away matches.
- Average 0.6 goals per away match.
Home record: 4W 1D 2L, 10 goals scored in 7 matches.
- They failed to score in 2 of their last 5 home matches.
- Average 1.4 goals per home match.
Kristiansund won 2-0 at home on 19 Apr 2026.
- Fredrikstad won 3-1 at home on 3 Nov 2025.
- Kristiansund won 1-0 at home on 11 May 2025.
Fredrikstad average 0.4 first-half goals per match.
- Kristiansund average 0.3 first-half goals per match.
- Fredrikstad have drawn at half-time in 3 of their last 5 matches.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Fredrikstad's strong home form and Kristiansund's poor away record give the hosts a clear edge, supported by the structural home/away signal.
- Fredrikstad home record: 4W 1D 2L, 10 goals for, 8 against in 7 home matches
- Kristiansund away record: 1W 1D 6L, 5 goals for, 15 against in 8 away matches
- Fredrikstad last 5 home matches: 3W 1D 1L
- Kristiansund last 5 away matches: 1W 0D 4L
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonFredrikstadEstimated chance45%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Combining Fredrikstad's home strength and Kristiansund's away struggles, the hosts are very likely to avoid defeat.
- Fredrikstad home record: 4W 1D 2L
- Kristiansund away record: 1W 1D 6L
- Fredrikstad have lost only 2 of 7 home matches
- Kristiansund have lost 6 of 8 away matches
BetBugs · Double ChancewonFredrikstad or DrawEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Low first-half scoring and similar first-half records make a level score at the break likely.
- Fredrikstad have drawn at half-time in 3 of their last 5 matches
- Kristiansund have drawn at half-time in 2 of their last 5 matches
- Fredrikstad average 0.4 first-half goals, Kristiansund 0.3
- Both teams concede 0.7 first-half goals on average
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A common pattern for Fredrikstad is a level first half followed by a home win, but the probability remains modest.
- Fredrikstad have drawn at half-time in 3 of last 5 matches
- Fredrikstad have won 3 of last 5 home matches
- Kristiansund have lost 4 of last 5 away matches
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublewonDraw/FredrikstadEstimated chance25%

Goals3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have low scoring rates, especially Kristiansund away, making a low-scoring match likely.
- Fredrikstad average 0.8 goals per match overall, 1.4 at home
- Kristiansund average 0.9 goals per match overall, 0.6 away
- Fredrikstad concede 1.5 goals per match overall, 1.1 at home
- Kristiansund concede 1.5 goals per match overall, 1.9 away
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 2.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams struggle to score consistently, and Kristiansund's away scoring is particularly weak, so at least one team is likely to blank.
- Fredrikstad have failed to score in 3 of their last 5 matches
- Kristiansund have failed to score in 3 of their last 5 away matches
- Fredrikstad average 0.8 goals per match overall
- Kristiansund average 0.6 goals per away match
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonNoEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have low first-half scoring rates, suggesting a tight opening period.
- Fredrikstad average 0.4 first-half goals per match
- Kristiansund average 0.3 first-half goals per match
- Fredrikstad average 0.7 first-half goals conceded
- Kristiansund average 0.7 first-half goals conceded
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Second halves tend to see more goals as fatigue sets in, but the evidence is not strong enough for high confidence.
- Fredrikstad average 0.4 second-half goals per match (derived from total minus first half)
- Kristiansund average 0.6 second-half goals per match
- Fredrikstad average 0.8 second-half goals conceded
- Kristiansund average 0.8 second-half goals conceded
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance50%

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have moderate corner counts, and the combined average is below the 9.5 line.
- Fredrikstad average 4.1 corners per match, concede 5.9
- Kristiansund average 4.4 corners per match, concede 6.3
- Combined average corners: 8.5 per match
- Recent H2H matches averaged 8.2 corners
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostUnder 9.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined average is above 3.5, but card counts can be volatile, so confidence is low.
- Fredrikstad average 1.9 yellow cards per match
- Kristiansund average 2.4 yellow cards per match
- Combined average yellow cards: 4.3 per match
- Kristiansund have received 5 yellow cards in a match twice in recent form
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 3.5Estimated chance55%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 55% leaves no cushion vs our 45% estimate; price already reflects the directional read.

Prediction history

Fredrikstad has been unreliable when projected over 3.5 cards

Fredrikstad has fulfilled 3 of 7 recent over 3.5 cards predictions. The average estimated probability was 53.6%, but only 43% of predictions matched. At home, just 1 of 4 predictions fulfilled, while away 2 of 3 fulfilled.

Recent evidence for Fredrikstad7 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

1 Aug·Eliteserien