CF Montreal1DC United1

HT 0–0Sat 15 Aug 2026, 23:30 Predictions graded

Predictions4–544%

Edges4–357%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 12 Aug 2026, 01:54 · Europe/Bucharest

The draw is the best value bet at 3.50, with both teams’ high draw rates and recent H2H history supporting a stalemate.

For goal markets, second-half over 1.5 goals at 2.30 offers a solid edge, while the home win and first-half over 0.5 goals are traps to avoid.

Context

Last five MLS results: D-L-L-D-D, with only two goals scored in that span.
- At home, Montreal have scored just once in their last three league matches (0-1 vs Inter Miami, 0-0 vs Toronto FC, 2-2 vs New England).
- Their last league win was on May 9 against Orlando City, over three months ago.
Away record: 2W-5D-2L, with draws in their last two road games (1-1 at Houston, 2-2 at Nashville).
- Only two away wins came against New York City FC (2-0) and Chicago Fire (2-1), both in March and May.
- DC United have scored in seven of nine away matches but conceded in seven as well, leading to frequent stalemates.
Last five H2H results: 4-4 draw (May 2026), 1-1 draw (Aug 2025), 0-0 draw (Mar 2025), 4-2 Montreal win (May 2024), 1-0 DC United win (Mar 2024).
- The most recent meeting saw Montreal score twice in stoppage time to salvage a 4-4 draw, highlighting the chaotic nature of this matchup.
- Both teams have scored in four of the last five H2H encounters.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result3 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams have high draw rates in their respective home/away splits, and recent H2H meetings heavily favor draws, making a stalemate the most likely outcome.
- CF Montreal home record: 3W-3D-3L (9 matches), DC United away record: 2W-5D-2L (9 matches).
- Last 5 H2H: 3 draws, 1 CF Montreal win, 1 DC United win; most recent meeting 4-4 draw.
- CF Montreal last 5 form: D-L-L-D-D (0 wins); DC United last 5 form: D-W-D-D-D (1 win).
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance35%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
CF Montreal's home resilience and DC United's difficulty winning on the road suggest the hosts are unlikely to lose, supporting a double chance for CF Montreal or Draw.
- CF Montreal home record: 3W-3D-3L, only 3 losses in 9 home matches.
- DC United away record: 2W-5D-2L, only 2 wins in 9 away matches.
- CF Montreal unbeaten in 3 of last 4 home matches (W-D-D-L).
BetBugs · Double ChancewonCF Montreal or DrawEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams have identical first-half records in their splits, and H2H first halves are often evenly matched, making a draw at halftime likely.
- CF Montreal home first-half results: 3W-3D-3L.
- DC United away first-half results: 3W-3D-3L.
- Last 5 H2H first-half results: 2 draws, 2 DC United leads, 1 CF Montreal lead.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
CF Montreal shows a slight edge in second-half performance at home, while DC United often settles for draws after the break, giving the hosts a marginal advantage.
- CF Montreal home second-half record: 4W-2D-3L (goal difference +2).
- DC United away second-half record: 2W-4D-3L (goal difference +1).
- CF Montreal won second half in 2 of last 3 home matches.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostCF MontrealEstimated chance35%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
While not frequent, both teams have shown the ability to play out stalemates from start to finish, and the high draw probability in this matchup supports this specific outcome.
- CF Montreal home HT-FT: 2 Draw/Draw in 9 matches.
- DC United away HT-FT: 2 Draw/Draw in 9 matches.
- Last 5 H2H: 1 Draw/Draw (0-0 in March 2025).
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw/DrawEstimated chance20%

Goals1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Recent H2H explosiveness and both teams' moderate goal averages in their respective splits point to a match with at least three goals.
- CF Montreal home matches average 2.44 total goals (12 scored, 10 conceded in 9 games).
- DC United away matches average 2.33 total goals (11 scored, 10 conceded in 9 games).
- Last H2H meeting produced 8 goals; 3 of last 5 H2H had over 2.5 goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both sides consistently find the net and concede in their respective home/away splits, and H2H history strongly supports both teams scoring.
- CF Montreal scored in 7 of 9 home matches; DC United scored in 7 of 9 away matches.
- Both teams scored in 4 of last 5 H2H meetings.
- CF Montreal conceded in 7 of 9 home matches; DC United conceded in 7 of 9 away matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have a strong tendency for first-half action in their splits, and H2H matches rarely stay goalless before the break.
- CF Montreal first-half goals at home: scored in 5 of 9, conceded in 5 of 9.
- DC United first-half goals away: scored in 5 of 9, conceded in 5 of 9.
- Last 5 H2H: first-half goals in 4 matches (total 7 goals).
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second halves tend to open up in this fixture, with both teams contributing to a higher goal tally after the break.
- CF Montreal home second-half goals: 7 scored, 5 conceded in 9 matches (avg 1.33 total).
- DC United away second-half goals: 6 scored, 5 conceded in 9 matches (avg 1.22 total).
- Last H2H had 5 second-half goals; 3 of last 5 H2H had over 1.5 second-half goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams' corner averages in their splits hover around the 10 mark, and recent H2H meetings have produced enough corners to push the total over 9.5.
- CF Montreal home corners average: 6.1 for, 4.0 against (total 10.1).
- DC United away corners average: 4.8 for, 5.6 against (total 10.4).
- Last H2H: 10 corners (4-6); 3 of last 5 H2H had over 9.5 corners.
BetBugs · Corners Over/Undernot gradableOver 9.5Estimated chance50%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 47% leaves no cushion vs our 40% estimate; price already reflects the directional read.

Prediction history

CF Montreal has been highly reliable when projected to exceed 9.5 corners

In 4 recent matches, CF Montreal's Over 9.5 corners prediction was fulfilled 3 times. The average estimated probability was 54.3%, with an expected 2.2 fulfilled predictions, indicating slight outperformance. Notably, both home matches saw the over hit, while the only miss occurred away.

Recent evidence for CF Montreal4 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

26 Jul·Major League Soccer