Rosenborg2Viking Stavanger1

HT 1–0Fri 14 Aug 2026, 17:00 Predictions graded

Predictions4–544%

Edges2–167%

PossPossession 55%–45%ShotsShots 17–6On targetOn target 8–1CornersCorners 9–6

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 12 Aug 2026, 09:22 · Europe/Bucharest

Viking Stavanger's strong away form and recent H2H edge make them unlikely to lose, but the best value is backing Draw or Viking Stavanger in the double chance market at 1.50, where our 70% estimate edges the implied 67%.

Avoid match winner bets as prices are efficient, and note that first-half goals are likely but offer no value at short odds.

Context

Viking away record: 6W-1D-2L, with 14 goals scored and 7 conceded.
- They have kept four clean sheets in nine away games.
- Only two away losses all season, both by a single goal.
Midfielder I. Fossum is out with a thigh injury.
- Attacker D. Islamovic is out with a leg injury.
- Both players have been key contributors in recent matches.
Viking won 3-0 at home on 1 May 2026.
- Viking are unbeaten in the last three competitive H2H (2W-1D).
- Rosenborg's last home win against Viking was in August 2024.
Defender A. Baertelsen is out with a foot injury.
- Defender M. Roseth is out with a knee injury.
- Viking have conceded only 0.78 goals per away game, but these absences may weaken that record.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 2

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5

1.20fair 1.33

BetBugs 75% · Market 83.3%

0.0ppshort

Both teams have a strong tendency to score in the first half, with Viking scoring in 13 of 15 matches and Rosenborg in 10 of 15, making a first-half goal highly likely.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Lean

Over 2.5

1.43fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 69.9%

0.0ppshort

Rosenborg's home matches average 3.1 total goals, and Viking's away matches average 2.3, with recent H2H meetings often exceeding 2.5 goals.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Viking's superior league position, strong away form, and recent H2H dominance give them the edge, though Rosenborg's home advantage keeps it competitive.
- Viking are 2nd with 40 pts, Rosenborg 9th with 21 pts (19-point gap).
- Viking away record: 6W-1D-2L, Rosenborg home record: 4W-2D-2L.
- Viking unbeaten in last 3 competitive H2H (2W-1D), including 3-0 win in May 2026.
- Viking form last 5: WWDWW, Rosenborg: WLWWW (but loss was 0-3 at Viking).
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostViking StavangerEstimated chance45%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Viking's consistency and defensive solidity make them unlikely to lose, while Rosenborg's home form is not dominant enough to expect a win.
- Viking have lost only 2 of 16 league matches this season.
- Rosenborg have won only 4 of 8 home matches.
- Viking are unbeaten in last 3 competitive H2H (2W-1D).
- Viking's away goals conceded: 7 in 9 matches (0.78 per game).
BetBugs · Double ChancelostDraw or Viking StavangerEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Viking's strong first-half performances this season give them a slight edge, but Rosenborg's home advantage and the low probability reflect the uncertainty of half-time leads.
- Viking lead at half-time in 80% of matches this season (12 of 15).
- Rosenborg lead at half-time in 40% of matches (6 of 15).
- Viking's first-half goal difference: +0.9 per game (1.3 scored, 0.4 conceded).
- Rosenborg's first-half goal difference: +0.2 per game (0.9 scored, 0.7 conceded).
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostViking StavangerEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at half-time followed by a Viking win is a plausible scenario given Viking's second-half strength and Rosenborg's tendency to draw at half-time at home.
- Viking have led at half-time and won in 10 of 15 matches this season.
- Rosenborg have drawn at half-time in 5 of 15 matches.
- Viking's away matches: 4 times led at HT and won, 2 times drew at HT and won.
- Rosenborg home matches: 2 times drew at HT and won, 2 times drew at HT and drew.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw/Viking StavangerEstimated chance25%

Goals3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have attacking quality, and recent H2H meetings have been relatively high-scoring, suggesting a good chance of at least 3 goals.
- Rosenborg home matches average 3.1 total goals (16 scored, 9 conceded in 8 games).
- Viking away matches average 2.3 total goals (14 scored, 7 conceded in 9 games).
- Last 3 H2H meetings: 3-0, 2-1, 1-1 (all over 2.5 except the 1-1).
- Viking have scored 2+ goals in 4 of their last 5 away matches.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Rosenborg's home scoring record and Viking's away scoring consistency make it likely both teams find the net, despite Viking's solid defense.
- Rosenborg have scored in 7 of 8 home matches this season.
- Viking have scored in 8 of 9 away matches this season.
- Rosenborg have kept only 2 clean sheets in 8 home matches.
- Viking have kept 4 clean sheets in 9 away matches, but Rosenborg's home attack is strong (2.0 goals per game).
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have a strong tendency to score in the first half, making it highly likely there will be at least one goal before the break.
- Viking have scored in the first half in 13 of 15 matches this season.
- Rosenborg have scored in the first half in 10 of 15 matches.
- Viking's first-half goals per game: 1.3, Rosenborg's: 0.9.
- In the last 3 H2H meetings, there was a first-half goal in each match.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined second-half scoring rates suggest a reasonable chance of at least 2 goals after the break, though it's not a high-probability event.
- Rosenborg's second-half goals per game: 0.8 (1.7 total - 0.9 first half).
- Viking's second-half goals per game: 1.0 (2.3 total - 1.3 first half).
- Rosenborg concede 0.7 second-half goals per game (1.4 total - 0.7 first half).
- Viking concede 0.5 second-half goals per game (0.9 total - 0.4 first half).
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams generate a decent number of corners, but the H2H history shows totals around 10, making over 9.5 a borderline call.
- Rosenborg average 6.2 corners per game, Viking average 6.7.
- Rosenborg home corners: 6.8 per game (based on available data).
- Viking away corners: 6.6 per game (based on available data).
- Combined average corners in their matches: 12.9, but H2H last 3: 10, 9, 11 corners.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 9.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined card averages and referee's tendency suggest a moderate chance of over 3.5 cards, but it's not a strong signal.
- Rosenborg average 2.0 yellow cards per game, Viking average 2.5.
- Combined average: 4.5 cards per game.
- In the last H2H (May 2026), there were 5 cards (Rosenborg 3, Viking 2).
- Referee Rohit Saggi averages 3.8 cards per game in Eliteserien this season.
BetBugs · Cards Over/Undernot gradableOver 3.5Estimated chance50%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 42% leaves no cushion vs our 45% estimate; price already reflects the directional read.

Prediction history

Rosenborg has seen Over 2.5 goals in 3 of 4 recent matches

Rosenborg's Over 2.5 goals projection has been fulfilled in 3 of 4 recent matches. All three fulfilled predictions came at home, where the team has consistently produced high-scoring games. The only miss occurred away, suggesting home matches have been more reliable for this outcome.

Recent evidence for Rosenborg4 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

27 Jul·Eliteserien