Goias1Londrina0

HT 1–0Mon 10 Aug 2026, 22:30 Predictions graded

Predictions6–555%

Edges4–180%

PossPossession 55%–45%ShotsShots 14–16On targetOn target 5–4CornersCorners 4–8

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 6 Aug 2026, 11:23 · Europe/Bucharest

Goiás are favorites at home with a rest advantage and key returns, but the market offers no value on the 1X2 or goals lines.

The top actionable takeaway is Over 4.5 cards at 7.00, where our 60% estimate dwarfs the implied 14.3%, presenting a strong value edge despite referee uncertainty.

Context

Goiás last played on 26 July, giving them a 15-day gap before this 10 August fixture.
- Mozart suffered his first loss as Goiás coach in that match (0-1 at América-MG) and now has a full preparation window.
- Centre-back Luiz Felipe and forward Kadu Sousa are available again after serving suspensions.
Allan Aal departed on 4 May 2026, and Londrina have not appointed a permanent replacement.
- Londrina's away record this season is 2W-2D-6L, with 17 goals conceded in 10 matches.
- They have lost four of their last five away matches, conceding 10 goals in that span.
Goiás entered the break just outside the G-6 after a 0-1 loss at América-MG.
- A win would have put them into the promotion zone; instead they start the second half of the season needing to make up ground.
- The two-week break and home advantage make this a targeted opportunity to restart their push.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 4

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Goias

1.67fair 2.22

BetBugs 45% · Market 60%

0.0ppshort

Goias' home record (5W-1D-3L) and Londrina's away record (2W-2D-6L) suggest a home win is more likely than the market implies, but the edge is marginal.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Goias or Draw

1.18fair 1.33

BetBugs 75% · Market 85%

0.0ppshort

Goias are difficult to beat at home, and Londrina's away struggles combined with a historically balanced H2H make a home win or draw highly likely.

Both Teams To ScorewonUncertainty band: Slight lean

No

1.67fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 59.9%

0.0ppshort

Goias' home defense has been solid, and H2H history shows a strong trend of at least one team failing to score.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Goias' solid home form and Londrina's poor away record, combined with Goias' motivation to push for promotion, give the home side a clear edge.
- Goias home record: 5W-1D-3L (9 matches), 9 goals scored, 11 conceded.
- Londrina away record: 2W-2D-6L (10 matches), 12 goals scored, 17 conceded.
- Goias last 5 home matches: 3W-1D-1L, including wins over Ceara (2-0) and Botafogo SP (1-0).
- Londrina last 5 away matches: 0W-2D-3L, conceding 10 goals in those 5.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonGoiasEstimated chance45%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Goias are difficult to beat at home, and Londrina's away struggles combined with a historically balanced H2H make a home win or draw highly likely.
- Goias home matches: only 3 losses in 9, with 5 wins and 1 draw.
- Londrina away matches: 6 losses in 10, with only 2 wins.
- H2H last 5 meetings: 4 draws and 1 Goias win, no Londrina win.
- Goias have lost only 1 of their last 5 home matches.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonGoias or DrawEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Goias' home first-half record is balanced, and Londrina often trails at halftime away, but the H2H and recent home form suggest a stalemate at the break is the most likely outcome.
- Goias home matches: led at halftime in 40% of matches, trailed in 27%, drawn in 33%.
- Londrina away matches: led at halftime in 20%, trailed in 53%, drawn in 27%.
- Goias last 5 home matches: 3 draws at halftime.
- H2H last 5 meetings: 3 draws at halftime.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Goias tend to improve after halftime at home, while Londrina frequently fade in the second half away, giving the hosts a slight edge to win the second period.
- Goias home matches: second half record 4W-3D-2L (based on goal difference in second half).
- Londrina away matches: second half record 2W-2D-6L.
- Goias last 5 home matches: won second half in 3, drew 1, lost 1.
- Londrina last 5 away matches: lost second half in 4, drew 1.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostGoiasEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
While not a frequent pattern, the combination of Goias' second-half strength at home and Londrina's away fragility makes a halftime draw turning into a home win a plausible scenario.
- Goias home matches: 2 of 9 had a draw at halftime and Goias win at fulltime.
- Londrina away matches: 1 of 10 had a draw at halftime and Londrina loss at fulltime.
- Goias last 5 home matches: 1 instance of Draw/Goias.
- H2H last 5 meetings: 1 instance of Draw/Goias.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw/GoiasEstimated chance25%

Goals2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have low-scoring trends in relevant splits, and the H2H history is dominated by tight, low-scoring affairs, pointing to under 2.5 goals.
- Goias home matches: 9 goals scored, 11 conceded in 9 games (avg 2.22 total goals).
- Londrina away matches: 12 goals scored, 17 conceded in 10 games (avg 2.9 total goals, but inflated by a 5-0 win).
- Goias last 5 home matches: 4 of 5 had under 2.5 goals.
- H2H last 5 meetings: 4 of 5 had under 2.5 goals, including three 0-0 draws.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Goias' home defense has been relatively solid, and Londrina's away attack is inconsistent, while the H2H shows a strong trend of at least one team failing to score.
- Goias home matches: both teams scored in only 4 of 9 (44%).
- Londrina away matches: both teams scored in 5 of 10 (50%).
- Goias last 5 home matches: both teams scored in only 2.
- H2H last 5 meetings: both teams scored in only 1 of 5.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonNoEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to start slowly, especially Goias at home, and the H2H pattern reinforces a cagey first half with few early goals.
- Goias home matches: first half goals avg 0.5 scored, 0.5 conceded (avg 1.0 total).
- Londrina away matches: first half goals avg 0.5 scored, 0.9 conceded (avg 1.4 total).
- Goias last 5 home matches: 3 of 5 had 0-0 at halftime.
- H2H last 5 meetings: 3 of 5 were 0-0 at halftime.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostUnder 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance55%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams consistently see goals after halftime in their respective home/away splits, making a second-half goal highly probable.
- Goias home matches: second half goals in 8 of 9 matches (89%).
- Londrina away matches: second half goals in 9 of 10 matches (90%).
- Goias last 5 home matches: second half goals in all 5.
- Londrina last 5 away matches: second half goals in all 5.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 0.5Estimated chance75%

Match stats2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' recent corner data in their respective splits hovers around the 10 mark, suggesting a slight lean towards over 9.5 corners.
- Goias home matches: average corners 5.2 for, opponent corners 5.2 against (total 10.4).
- Londrina away matches: average corners 4.9 for, opponent corners 5.1 against (total 10.0).
- Goias last 5 home matches: total corners averaged 10.2.
- Londrina last 5 away matches: total corners averaged 10.4.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have a tendency to accumulate cards, especially Londrina away, pushing the expected total above 4.5.
- Goias home matches: average yellow cards 2.5, opponent yellow cards 2.1 (total 4.6).
- Londrina away matches: average yellow cards 2.7, opponent yellow cards 2.8 (total 5.5).
- Goias last 5 home matches: total cards averaged 5.0.
- Londrina last 5 away matches: total cards averaged 5.8.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 4.5Estimated chance60%

Prediction history

Goias has been unreliable when projected to win

Goias has fulfilled only 2 of 6 win predictions. The average estimated probability was 44.8%, but they won just twice, well below the expected 2.7 wins. At home, they have won only 1 of 4 such matches, and their current 45% probability sits within the historical range of 40–55%.

Recent evidence for Goias6 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

27 Jul·Serie B