Cruzeiro3Mirassol1

HT 1–1Sun 9 Aug 2026, 14:00 Predictions graded

Predictions8–280%

Edges4–0100%

PossPossession 50%–50%ShotsShots 11–13On targetOn target 3–4CornersCorners 4–1

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 4 Aug 2026, 13:45 · Europe/Bucharest

Cruzeiro are strong at home and face a travel-weary Mirassol, but their draw-heavy record and the H2H history of both teams scoring make a home win less certain than odds suggest.

The best value is Both Teams to Score at 1.85, with a +5.9-point edge, while backing Cruzeiro outright or the Double Chance offers poor value. Expect goals, but be cautious of a stalemate.

Context

Mirassol drew 1-1 with Grêmio on 2 August, then played the return leg on 5 August.
- The match against Cruzeiro is on 9 August at 11 a.m. local time, just four days later.
- A Libertadores match follows on 13 August, making this the third of four matches in 12 days.
Cruzeiro's last five home results: 3 wins, 2 draws.
- They scored 9 goals and conceded 3 in those five matches.
- The run includes a 4-0 win over Barcelona SC and a 2-1 win over Chapecoense.
Mirassol's away record this season: 1 win, 2 draws, 6 losses.
- They have lost six of their last seven away league matches.
- Only 8 goals scored and 14 conceded in those 9 away games.
All three H2H matches ended with both teams scoring: 2-2, 1-1, 2-1.
- Cruzeiro won once and drew twice, never keeping a clean sheet.
- The most recent meeting in February 2026 was a 2-2 draw.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 3

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Cruzeiro or Draw

1.18fair 1.33

BetBugs 75% · Market 85%

0.0ppshort

Cruzeiro's home resilience (8 of 11 without defeat) and Mirassol's travel struggles (1 win in 9 away) make a home win or draw highly likely, reinforced by H2H history.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Cruzeiro

1.64fair 2.22

BetBugs 45% · Market 61%

0.0ppshort

Cruzeiro's solid home form and Mirassol's poor away record, combined with Mirassol's fixture congestion, give the hosts a clear edge.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5

1.30fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 76.9%

0.0ppshort

Both teams have a tendency for first-half goals, with Cruzeiro seeing a first-half goal in 4 of last 5 home matches and Mirassol averaging 0.8 first-half goals per game.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Cruzeiro's solid home form and Mirassol's poor away record, combined with Mirassol's fixture congestion, give the hosts a clear edge.
- Cruzeiro home record: 4W-4D-3L, 16 goals scored, 13 conceded in 11 matches.
- Mirassol away record: 1W-2D-6L, 8 goals scored, 14 conceded in 9 matches.
- Cruzeiro unbeaten in last 5 home matches across all competitions (3W-2D).
- Mirassol lost 6 of last 7 away matches in Serie A.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonCruzeiroEstimated chance45%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Cruzeiro's strong home resilience and Mirassol's travel struggles, reinforced by H2H history, make a home win or draw highly likely.
- Cruzeiro avoided defeat in all 3 H2H meetings (1W-2D).
- Cruzeiro home record: 8 of 11 matches without defeat.
- Mirassol away record: only 1 win in 9 matches.
- Mirassol's last 5 away matches: 0W-1D-4L.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonCruzeiro or DrawEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Cruzeiro's low home halftime lead rate and Mirassol's strong first-half resilience make a home halftime lead uncertain, but home advantage gives a slight edge.
- Cruzeiro led at halftime in 33% of matches overall, but only 2 of 11 home matches.
- Mirassol trailed at halftime in only 7% of matches overall, and 1 of 9 away matches.
- In H2H, Cruzeiro led at halftime once in 3 meetings.
- Cruzeiro's last 5 home matches: led at halftime only once.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostCruzeiroEstimated chance35%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at halftime followed by a Cruzeiro win is a plausible scenario given Mirassol's second-half fatigue and Cruzeiro's ability to push late.
- Cruzeiro drew at halftime in 33% of matches, and won full-time in 38%.
- Mirassol drew at halftime in 47% of matches, and lost full-time in 45%.
- In H2H, one match was draw at halftime and Cruzeiro won full-time.
- Cruzeiro's last 5 home matches: draw at halftime in 2, won full-time in 2.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublewonDraw / CruzeiroEstimated chance20%

Goals4 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The consistent H2H pattern of both teams scoring, plus Cruzeiro's defensive vulnerability at home and Mirassol's ability to score on the road, supports BTTS.
- Both teams scored in all 3 H2H meetings.
- Cruzeiro conceded in 8 of 11 home matches this season.
- Mirassol scored in 7 of 9 away matches this season.
- Cruzeiro's last 5 home matches: both teams scored in 3.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The H2H trend of high-scoring encounters, combined with both teams' defensive weaknesses, points to another match with at least three goals.
- All 3 H2H meetings had over 2.5 goals (2-2, 1-1, 2-1).
- Cruzeiro home matches average 2.64 total goals (16 scored, 13 conceded in 11).
- Mirassol away matches average 2.44 total goals (8 scored, 14 conceded in 9).
- Cruzeiro's last 5 home matches: 3 had over 2.5 goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to score or concede in the first half, and the H2H history shows early goals, making over 0.5 first-half goals likely.
- Cruzeiro first-half goals: 0.5 per match average; conceded 0.6 per match.
- Mirassol first-half goals: 0.8 per match average; conceded only 0.3 per match.
- In 3 H2H meetings, first-half goals occurred in 2 matches (1-0, 1-1).
- Cruzeiro's last 5 home matches: first-half goal in 4.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The tendency for goals to flow in the second half, especially with Mirassol's fatigue, suggests at least two second-half goals.
- Cruzeiro second-half goals: 0.8 per match; conceded 0.3 per match on average.
- Mirassol second-half goals: 0.5 per match; conceded 0.6 per match on average.
- In 2 of 3 H2H meetings, second half had over 1.5 goals.
- Cruzeiro's last 5 home matches: second half over 1.5 goals in 3.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams generate a moderate number of corners, and the H2H history shows totals around 10, making over 9.5 corners a reasonable expectation.
- Cruzeiro average 6.2 corners per match; concede 4.7 corners per match.
- Mirassol average 4.4 corners per match; concede 5.3 corners per match.
- Combined average corners in Cruzeiro matches: 10.9; in Mirassol matches: 9.7.
- In 2 of 3 H2H meetings, total corners were 10 and 11.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 9.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The disciplinary records of both teams and the competitive nature of the fixture suggest a card count exceeding 4.5.
- Cruzeiro average 2.6 yellow cards per match; Mirassol average 2.1.
- Combined average cards in Cruzeiro matches: 4.7; in Mirassol matches: 4.1.
- In 2 of 3 H2H meetings, total cards were 5 and 6.
- Cruzeiro's last 5 home matches: over 4.5 cards in 3.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 4.5Estimated chance55%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 85% leaves no cushion vs our 75% estimate; price already reflects the directional read.

Prediction history

Cruzeiro has been unreliable when projected to win

Cruzeiro has fulfilled only 2 of 5 predictions when projected to win. The average estimated probability was 52.8%, but the two wins came at higher probabilities (65% each), while the three misses averaged just 44.7%. All five matches were at home, where the current prediction of 45% sits within the historical range but below the average of successful predictions.

Recent evidence for Cruzeiro5 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

26 Jul·Serie A