USL League OneFull time

Predictions graded

AC Boise0Corpus Christi0

HT 0–0Sun 2 Aug 2026, 01:30 Predictions graded

Predictions1–811%

Edges1–420%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 1 Aug 2026, 00:07 · Europe/Bucharest

AC Boise's strong home form (60% wins) clashes with Corpus Christi's winless away record (0W-4D-5L), but Boise's third match in eight days creates major fatigue risk.

The home win at 1.67 is poor value (45% estimate vs. 60% implied), and the double chance is even worse. The only slight edge is Both Teams to Score Yes at 1.73 (+2.2 points), as both sides consistently score and concede in their respective splits.

Context

AC Boise traveled to New York on July 25 and South Carolina on July 29 before returning to Idaho for August 1.
- The team has only two rest days between each match, with significant travel distances involved.
- No injuries are reported, but the workload increases the likelihood of squad rotation and second-half energy drops.
Away record: 0 wins, 4 draws, 5 losses in 9 matches.
- They have conceded 17 goals away (1.89 per game) while scoring only 7 (0.78 per game).
- Recent away results include a 0-0 draw at NY Cosmos and a 2-1 loss at Charlotte Independence.
Home record: 6 wins, 1 draw, 3 losses in 10 matches.
- They have scored 16 goals (1.6 per game) and conceded 11 (1.1 per game) at home.
- Recent home wins include a 2-1 victory over Portland Hearts of Pine and a 1-0 win over Union Omaha.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 4

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

AC Boise

1.67fair 2.22

BetBugs 45% · Market 60%

0.0ppshort

AC Boise's strong home form (60% win rate) contrasts sharply with Corpus Christi's winless away record (0 wins in 9), giving the hosts a clear structural edge despite fatigue concerns.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

AC Boise or Draw

1.18fair 1.33

BetBugs 75% · Market 85%

0.0ppshort

Combining AC Boise's strong home form with Corpus Christi's inability to win away (0 wins) and high draw rate (44% away draws) makes AC Boise or Draw a high-probability outcome.

Goals Over/UnderlostUncertainty band: Slight lean

Over 2.5

1.73fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 57.8%

0.0ppshort

Both teams' recent matches and season-long averages point to a tendency for goals, with AC Boise's home games and Corpus Christi's away games both averaging over 2.5 total goals.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderlostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5

1.33fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 75.2%

0.0ppshort

Both teams have been involved in matches with first-half goals recently, and Corpus Christi's tendency to concede early away from home supports at least one goal before halftime.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
AC Boise's strong home form (60% win rate) contrasts sharply with Corpus Christi's winless away record (0 wins in 9), giving the hosts a clear structural edge despite fatigue concerns.
- AC Boise home record: 6W-1D-3L (16GF, 11GA in 10 matches)
- Corpus Christi away record: 0W-4D-5L (7GF, 17GA in 9 matches)
- AC Boise last 5 overall: 3W-0D-2L, including 2 home wins
- Corpus Christi last 5 overall: 2W-2D-1L, but away form remains winless
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostAC BoiseEstimated chance45%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Combining AC Boise's strong home form with Corpus Christi's inability to win away (0 wins) and high draw rate (44% away draws) makes AC Boise or Draw a high-probability outcome.
- AC Boise home record: 6W-1D-3L (70% unbeaten at home)
- Corpus Christi away record: 0W-4D-5L (44% draws away)
- Corpus Christi overall draws: 7 in 18 matches (39%)
- AC Boise home draws: only 1 in 10, but Corpus Christi's draw tendency away is high
BetBugs · Double ChancewonAC Boise or DrawEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
AC Boise has a slight edge in first-half performance at home, but the low overall lead rate and Corpus Christi's occasional resilience make this a low-confidence pick.
- AC Boise led at halftime in 20% of matches overall, but at home they led in 3 of 10
- Corpus Christi trailed at halftime in 33% of matches overall, and in 4 of 9 away
- AC Boise last 5: led at halftime in 1 of 5
- Corpus Christi last 5: trailed at halftime in 2 of 5
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostAC BoiseEstimated chance35%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
AC Boise's superior second-half performance at home, combined with Corpus Christi's poor away second halves, suggests the hosts could edge the second period, though fatigue is a counter-factor.
- AC Boise home second half goal difference: +5 (11GF, 6GA)
- Corpus Christi away second half goal difference: -7 (4GF, 11GA)
- AC Boise last 5: won second half in 2 of 5
- Corpus Christi last 5: lost second half in 2 of 5
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostAC BoiseEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The pattern of a drawn first half followed by an AC Boise win has occurred in 30% of their home matches, and Corpus Christi has shown vulnerability in similar scenarios away.
- AC Boise home: 3 of 10 matches were draw at HT and win at FT
- Corpus Christi away: 2 of 9 matches were draw at HT and lose at FT
- AC Boise last 5: 1 draw at HT and win at FT
- Corpus Christi last 5: 1 draw at HT and lose at FT
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw/AC BoiseEstimated chance20%

Goals0 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' recent matches and season-long averages point to a tendency for goals, with AC Boise's home games and Corpus Christi's away games both averaging over 2.5 total goals.
- AC Boise home matches average 2.7 total goals (16GF, 11GA in 10)
- Corpus Christi away matches average 2.67 total goals (7GF, 17GA in 9)
- AC Boise last 5 matches: 3 of 5 had over 2.5 goals
- Corpus Christi last 5 matches: 3 of 5 had over 2.5 goals
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have shown consistent ability to score and concede in their respective home/away splits, and recent form reinforces the likelihood of both finding the net.
- AC Boise home: scored in 8 of 10, conceded in 7 of 10
- Corpus Christi away: scored in 6 of 9, conceded in 8 of 9
- AC Boise last 5: both teams scored in 4 of 5
- Corpus Christi last 5: both teams scored in 3 of 5
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have been involved in matches with first-half goals recently, and Corpus Christi's tendency to concede early away from home supports at least one goal before halftime.
- AC Boise first half goals at home: 0.5 per match average (5 in 10)
- Corpus Christi first half goals conceded away: 0.7 per match average (6 in 9)
- AC Boise last 5: first half goal in 4 of 5
- Corpus Christi last 5: first half goal in 4 of 5
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Second-half scoring rates are moderate for both sides, but AC Boise's fatigue from a congested schedule could lead to more goals after the break, making this a borderline call.
- AC Boise home second half goals: 1.1 per match (11 in 10)
- Corpus Christi away second half goals conceded: 1.2 per match (11 in 9)
- AC Boise last 5: second half over 1.5 goals in 3 of 5
- Corpus Christi last 5: second half over 1.5 goals in 3 of 5
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance50%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Without specific corner data, we rely on league averages and the match context of an attacking home side against a defensively vulnerable away team, suggesting a moderate chance of exceeding 8.5 corners.
- Corner data unavailable for both teams in recent matches
- USL League One average corners per match: approximately 9.2 (league-wide estimate)
- AC Boise home style likely to generate corners given their attacking intent
- Corpus Christi away may concede corners due to defensive pressure
BetBugs · Corners Over/Undernot gradableOver 8.5Estimated chance50%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 60% leaves no cushion vs our 45% estimate; price already reflects the directional read and fatigue risk is not fully priced.

Prediction history

AC Boise has been highly reliable when projected to win

AC Boise has fulfilled 5 of 6 win predictions, with an average estimated probability of 47.8%. The only miss came away at Greenville Triumph, while all four home predictions were successful. The current probability of 45% sits within the historical range of 42–55%.

Recent evidence for AC Boise6 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

30 Jul·USL League One