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Brandon Nakashima #17United StatesMatteo Berrettini #48Italy

Tue 3 Nov 2026, 11:003 Nov, 11:00First RoundI.hard

9Probabilities3Priced4Edges74%Strongest

Strong leanLeanSlight lean

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageBrandon Nakashima · 31 places

Brandon Nakashima

United States

Nakashima reached a career-high No. 29 on 5 May 2025. The ITF lists hard court as his preferred surface.

Current ranking: #17
Peak ranking: #29 · 2025
Current age: 25
Preferred surface: I.hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 188 cm

Matteo Berrettini

Italy

Former world No. 6 Berrettini is a Wimbledon finalist. On 7 July 2026, he withdrew from Gstaad and Kitzbühel after being diagnosed with chronic hip pain, with the stated aim of preparing for the US hard-court swing.

Current ranking: #48
Peak ranking: #6 · 2022
Current age: 30
Preferred surface: Carpet
Hand: Right handed
Height: 196 cm

Quick Take

Read first

Context last updated 1 Nov 2026, 03:30 · Europe/Bucharest

Two solid first serves meet in Paris, but the shape of the match may come from Berrettini's 1-9 first-set record across 10 hard-court best-of-three matches.

Nakashima, ranked 17 to 48, won their last meeting 7-6(4) 7-5 and looks the likelier winner. Nakashima at 1.65 for the match and at 1.65 for the first set, over 2.5 sets at 2.2 and Nakashima 2-1 at 3.75 all hold up; 2.6 on a 2-0 does not.

Context

No availability or fitness news surfaced, so the conditions that shape this match are on-court: Berrettini's 1-9 first-set record on hard courts against Nakashima's 8-4, and their 14-11 game meeting on 9 October 2026.

His serve has kept opening sets close even when they go against him; half of those ten first sets went to a tiebreak.
A 1-9 first-set record over 10 matches is a persistent pattern rather than one bad week. It does not settle the match, because he was 6-4 in second sets over the same stretch. It does make the opening set the least comfortable part of his afternoon.
- Set 1: 1 win, 9 losses across 10 hard-court best-of-three matches, 3 August to 30 October 2026.
- Five of those 10 first sets reached a tiebreak; games won averaged 4.7 against 6.2 lost.
Nakashima won that meeting in straight sets, but the 14-11 game count shows how little separated them.
The straight-sets scoreline reads more comfortable than the 14-11 games total. Both sets turned on a handful of points, and Berrettini's serve kept him in it. It is the tightest recent evidence between these two and argues against expecting a wide margin.
- Head-to-head dated 9 October 2026: Nakashima won 7-6(4) 7-5 on hard court.
- Games in that match: Nakashima 14, Berrettini 11.
The sample runs from 16 August to 28 October 2026 and includes four 2-1 wins and three 1-2 losses. His first sets are strong at 8-4 while his second sets sit at 5-7, which is how a three-set habit builds up. A lengthy match is the normal shape of his recent hard-court tennis.
- 7 of 12 hard-court best-of-three matches went to a third set, 16 August to 28 October 2026.
- Average match length 2.58 sets; scorelines included four 2-1 wins and three 1-2 losses.
The scoreline shows a heavy first set dropped and a tight third set lost, not a one-sided defeat. It is a single match, so it carries limited weight against his 9-6 record over the last 15 tracked matches. It does place a tight loss to a lower-ranked opponent inside his recent indoor form.
- 28 October 2026: lost 1-6 6-4 6-7 to Tallon Griekspoor, ranked 50, indoor hard court.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thinks each outcome is.

Result1 outcome · top 68%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.65
The read
Nakashima is higher ranked, won the recent hard-court meeting, and Berrettini has started matches poorly.
- Nakashima is ranked 17; Berrettini is ranked 48.
- Nakashima won the latest hard-court meeting 7-6(4) 7-5.
- Nakashima is 7-5 in hard-court best-of-three scorelines in the set evidence.
- Berrettini is 1-9 in first sets across 10 hard-court best-of-three matches.
BetBugs · Match WinnerBrandon NakashimaMarket price1.65Estimated chance68%

Games4 outcomes · top 67%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' first sets average more than ten games and often reach tiebreaks.
- Nakashima's first sets average 10.83 games on hard courts.
- Berrettini's first sets average 10.9 games on hard courts.
- Nakashima has five first-set tiebreaks in 12 hard-court best-of-three matches.
- Berrettini has five first-set tiebreaks in 10 hard-court best-of-three matches.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GamesOver 9.5Estimated chance67%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Second sets also average around ten games, with enough tiebreaks to favor the over.
- Nakashima's second sets average 10.67 games on hard courts.
- Berrettini's second sets average 10.2 games on hard courts.
- Nakashima has three second-set tiebreaks in 12 hard-court best-of-three matches.
- Berrettini has three second-set tiebreaks in 10 hard-court best-of-three matches.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GamesOver 9.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Nakashima has a small positive game margin on hard courts and won the recent meeting by three games, which is enough for this line.
- Nakashima is +3 in games across his last six hard-court matches.
- Berrettini is -6 in games across his last six hard-court matches.
- Nakashima won the latest head-to-head 14-11 in games.
- Nakashima is 216-194 in games across 15 hard-court matches.
BetBugs · Game HandicapBrandon Nakashima -1.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Frequent tiebreaks and three-set patterns point to a longer match.
- Nakashima's hard-court matches average 27.25 total games.
- Berrettini's hard-court matches average 25.9 total games.
- Nakashima has seven matches with a tiebreak in 12 hard-court best-of-three matches.
- Berrettini has eight matches with a tiebreak in 10 hard-court best-of-three matches.
BetBugs · Total GamesOver 26.5Estimated chance53%

Sets3 outcomes · top 74%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.65
The read
Nakashima has won most first sets on hard courts while Berrettini has lost nearly all of his.
- Nakashima is 8-4 in first sets on hard courts.
- Berrettini is 1-9 in first sets on hard courts.
- Nakashima won the first set 7-6(4) in the latest head-to-head.
- Berrettini has five first-set tiebreaks in 10 hard-court best-of-three matches.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerBrandon NakashimaMarket price1.65Estimated chance74%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.20
The read
Both players have played a high share of three-set matches on hard courts.
- Nakashima's average hard-court match length is 2.58 sets.
- Berrettini's average hard-court match length is 2.5 sets.
- Nakashima has seven three-set matches in 12 hard-court best-of-three scorelines.
- Berrettini has five three-set matches in 10 hard-court best-of-three scorelines.
BetBugs · Total SetsOver 2.5Market price2.20Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Nakashima won the second set in their latest meeting and is the stronger overall player, though the set-two numbers are close.
- Nakashima won the second set 7-5 in the latest head-to-head.
- Nakashima is 5-7 in second sets on hard courts.
- Berrettini is 6-4 in second sets on hard courts.
- Nakashima has three second-set wins in his last six hard-court matches.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerBrandon NakashimaEstimated chance54%

Match stats1 outcome · top 72%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have frequent tiebreaks on hard courts, and their last meeting had one.
- Nakashima has seven matches with a tiebreak in 12 hard-court best-of-three matches.
- Berrettini has eight matches with a tiebreak in 10 hard-court best-of-three matches.
- The latest head-to-head included a first-set tiebreak.
- Nakashima has five first-set tiebreaks in 12 hard-court best-of-three matches.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchYesEstimated chance72%

Prediction history

Brandon Nakashima: 8/11 recent winner projections matched

8 of 11 comparable winner projections favouring Brandon Nakashima matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Brandon Nakashima11 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

30 Jul·ATP Washington

#33Brandon Nakashima2-1#17Jakub Mensik

BetBugsBrandon Nakashima to win·55%

Matched

30 Jul 2026

ATP Washington

#33Brandon Nakashima2-1#17Jakub Mensik

Brandon Nakashima to win

55%probability

Brandon Nakashima won

Matched

28 Jul·ATP Washington

#32Brandon Nakashima2-0#31Tomas Martin Etcheverry

BetBugsBrandon Nakashima to win·62%

Matched

28 Jul 2026

ATP Washington

#32Brandon Nakashima2-0#31Tomas Martin Etcheverry

Brandon Nakashima to win

62%probability

Brandon Nakashima won

Matched

2 Jul·ATP Wimbledon

#31Brandon Nakashima2-3#74Jan-Lennard Struff

BetBugsBrandon Nakashima to win·62%

Missed

2 Jul 2026

ATP Wimbledon

#31Brandon Nakashima2-3#74Jan-Lennard Struff

Brandon Nakashima to win

62%probability

Jan-Lennard Struff won

Missed

30 Jun·ATP Wimbledon

#31Brandon Nakashima3-0#145Jack Pinnington-Jones

BetBugsBrandon Nakashima to win·78%

Matched

30 Jun 2026

ATP Wimbledon

#31Brandon Nakashima3-0#145Jack Pinnington-Jones

Brandon Nakashima to win

78%probability

Brandon Nakashima won

Matched

20 Jun·ATP London

#32Brandon Nakashima1-2#27Francisco Cerundolo

BetBugsBrandon Nakashima to win·58%

Missed

20 Jun 2026

ATP London

#32Brandon Nakashima1-2#27Francisco Cerundolo

Brandon Nakashima to win

58%probability

Francisco Cerundolo won

Missed

Head-to-Head

1-1 (2 meetings)

W7-6(4) 7-5Brandon Nakashima#17vMatteo Berrettini#48Oct 9, 2026

L4-6 6-2 7-6(5) 6-3Brandon Nakashima#17vMatteo Berrettini#48Jan 17, 2022

2 total meetings

Previous match context available

Brandon Nakashima

9W 6L

6-1 4-6 7-6(2)#50Tallon Griekspoor

4-6 6-4 6-4#6Flavio Cobolli

6-4 6-3#79Kyrian Jacquet

7-6(4) 6-7(4) 6-2#78Hamad Medjedovic

6-7(7) 6-3 7-6(5)#20Alexander Bublik

7-6(4) 7-5#48Matteo Berrettini

6-3 6-2#38Ugo Humbert

6-1 3-6 10-7#16Jakub Mensik

6-3 6-4 6-4#34Alex Michelsen

6-2 6-1 6-0#49Sebastian Baez

7-5 6-3#9Frances Tiafoe

7-6(9) 4-6 6-3#13Taylor Fritz

6-3 6-7(5) 6-3#53Nuno Borges

6-7(3) 7-6(4) 6-1#5Daniil Medvedev

6-2 7-5#84Aleksandar Kovacevic

Matteo Berrettini

7W 8L

7-6(4) 6-2#10Alex De Minaur

5-2 ret.#6Flavio Cobolli

6-3 6-4#29Tomas Martin Etcheverry

7-6(4) 7-5#79Kyrian Jacquet

7-6(4) 7-5#17Brandon Nakashima

6-7(3) 6-1 6-4#84Aleksandar Kovacevic

7-6(6) 6-1#56Adolfo Daniel Vallejo

1-6 7-6(1) 6-4#15Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

3-6 6-3 6-4 7-6(4)#43Mariano Navone

7-6(4) 7-6(3) 6-0#151Stan Wawrinka

6-4 6-7(3) 6-3#21Jiri Lehecka

3-6 6-1 6-4#72Titouan Droguet

6-3 6-7(5) 6-3#43Mariano Navone

6-3 6-4 3-6 5-7 6-3#124Grigor Dimitrov

6-4 7-5 3-6 6-3#8Arthur Fils

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

BNBrandon NakashimaNakashima

Last 15

3–1

9 core stats · 5 even

Matteo BerrettiniBerrettiniMB

Brandon Nakashima carries the stronger recent form — Matteo Berrettini's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–1 · 2 even

1st Serve In62.5%+2.5pp65.0%

1st Serve Won77.2%—77.8%

2nd Serve Won52.3%—52.2%

Aces / Match11.9+0.311.6

Double Faults / Match1.60.7 fewer2.3

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

Return Pts Won32.4%—32.6%

Pressure · 1–0 · 1 even

Break Pts Converted40.0%+10.9pp29.1%

Break Pts Saved67.1%—66.7%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

Total Pts Won50.4%—50.2%

Serve · 2–1 · 2 even

62.5%1st Serve In+2.5pp65.0%

77.2%1st Serve Won—77.8%

52.3%2nd Serve Won—52.2%

11.9Aces / Match+0.311.6

1.6Double Faults / Match0.7 fewer2.3

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

32.4%Return Pts Won—32.6%

Pressure · 1–0 · 1 even

40.0%Break Pts Converted+10.9pp29.1%

67.1%Break Pts Saved—66.7%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

50.4%Total Pts Won—50.2%

Brandon Nakashima

Matteo Berrettini

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Brandon Nakashima

Brandon Nakashima

Over 2.5

Brandon Nakashima 2-1

Result1 outcome · top 68%

Games4 outcomes · top 67%

Sets3 outcomes · top 74%

Match stats1 outcome · top 72%

Head-to-Head

Brandon Nakashima

Matteo Berrettini

Stat Battle