Matteo Berrettini #43Italy00 – 2Alex De Minaur #10Australia2

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.44

The read

De Minaur's superior ranking, recent hard-court record and straight-set frequency point to a clear advantage.

• De Minaur is 11-2 on hard in the current sample and ranked 10th to Berrettini's 43rd.
• De Minaur has won six of 10 hard-court best-of-three matches in straight sets.
• Berrettini is 5-6 on hard in the current sample.
• De Minaur won the most recent meeting 6-1 7-6 in 2025.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Berrettini's first sets often run long, and a competitive opener makes over 9.5 games slightly more likely.

• Berrettini's first sets average 10.7 total games on hard.
• De Minaur's first sets average 9.6 total games on hard.
• Berrettini has four first-set tiebreaks in nine hard-court samples.
• De Minaur has two first-set tiebreaks in 10 hard-court samples.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

De Minaur's 9-1 second-set record and lower average total games make under 9.5 the slightly stronger side.

• De Minaur's second sets average 9.2 total games on hard.
• Berrettini's second sets average 10.4 total games on hard.
• De Minaur is 9-1 in second sets on hard.
• Berrettini has three second-set tiebreaks in nine hard-court samples.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.45

The read

De Minaur's second-set numbers are the strongest set split in the evidence and make him a clear favourite for set two.

• De Minaur is 9-1 in second sets in hard-court best-of-three samples.
• De Minaur averages 5.9 games won and 3.3 lost in second sets.
• Berrettini is 6-3 in second sets on hard.
• De Minaur has lost only one second set in 10 hard-court samples.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.50

The read

De Minaur's more reliable first-set record and Berrettini's frequent early losses favour De Minaur for the opening set.

• De Minaur is 6-4 in first sets in hard-court best-of-three samples.
• Berrettini is 1-8 in first sets on the same surface and format.
• Berrettini averages 4.6 games won in first sets.
• De Minaur averages 4.7 games won in first sets.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.50

The read

De Minaur's strong straight-set record and Berrettini's poor first sets make a two-set finish more likely.

• De Minaur has six 2-0 wins in 10 hard-court best-of-three samples.
• Berrettini has one 2-0 win and three 0-2 losses in nine hard-court samples.
• De Minaur's set-two record is 9-1.
• Berrettini's set-one record is 1-8.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Berrettini's serve and frequent close sets make at least one tiebreak more likely than not.

• Berrettini has a tiebreak in seven of nine hard-court best-of-three samples.
• De Minaur has a tiebreak in three of 10 hard-court samples.
• Three of the five career meetings included a tiebreak.
• Berrettini has four first-set tiebreaks in nine hard-court samples.