ItalyWTA CourmayeurFinishedFeatured

Predictions graded

Elsa Jacquemot #135France2Elizara Yaneva #1421

Sets 5-7 · 7-6 · 6-1Fri 30 Oct 2026, 15:10 Predictions gradedQuarter-FinalI.hard

Predictions4–544%

Edges0–10%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageElsa Jacquemot · 7 places

Elsa Jacquemot

France

Reached a career-high No. 53 on February 2, 2026 and entered Warsaw at No. 101. She is a 176 cm right-hander and won the 2020 Roland Garros girls' singles title.

Current ranking: #135
Peak ranking: #53 · 2026
Current age: 23
Preferred surface: I.hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 176 cm

Elizara Yaneva

Yaneva is a 19-year-old right-hander whose ITF profile lists hard as her preferred surface. She was ranked No. 193 on August 3, 2026 after reaching a career-high No. 186 on July 20.

Current ranking: #142
Peak ranking: #186 · 2026
Current age: 19
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: —

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 29 Oct 2026, 22:17 · Europe/Bucharest

In the Courmayeur quarter-final, Yaneva brings a 12-3 record across her last 15 matches and a 2-0 indoor hard week, but that hard evidence is only two matches against Jacquemot's 15.

Yaneva is the slightly likelier winner, with Jacquemot's first serve and second-set record the main resistance. At 1.73 Yaneva asks for 57.8% and does not offer value; Jacquemot at 2.10 also falls short, so no quoted price is worthwhile.

Context

Jacquemot's latest outing went the distance, with the opening set lost in a tiebreak before she took control.
The result shows Jacquemot can turn around a match on indoor hard, and it is her most recent evidence before this quarter-final. It is still one match, so it does not prove a broader pattern. Its relevance is simply that she arrives with a completed three-set win, not that the scoreline predicts another long match.
- On 29 October 2026, Jacquemot beat Susan Bandecchi 6-7, 6-2, 6-3 in one completed indoor hard-court match.
Yaneva's latest win came after she lost the second set, and the opponent was ranked higher than either player in this quarter-final.
It is the standout single result in the two recent records, but one match cannot prove a surface trend. It does support the reading that Yaneva is in good current form. It does not show how she will cope with Jacquemot's first serve, which has been a stronger part of Jacquemot's game.
- On 28 October 2026, Yaneva beat Oksana Selekhmeteva (ranked 101) 6-3, 3-6, 6-3 in one completed indoor hard-court match.
Her first sets have been close to even and often long, while her second sets have been the more productive part of her record.
That split gives Jacquemot a route back if Yaneva starts well, and it fits a player whose first sets have averaged 10.3 total games. It is based on 15 matches, so it is a real but not fixed tendency. It also means a fast Yaneva start would not by itself settle the match.
- Over 15 completed hard-court matches from 14 September to 29 October 2026, Jacquemot went 7-8 in first sets and 10-5 in second sets, averaging 10.3 total games in first sets.
Yaneva has won both opening sets in that short sample, averaging six games to 2.5 games.
The two wins are current and useful, but two matches cannot establish a reliable hard-court rate. Jacquemot's 15-match hard-court record is the steadier comparison for this quarter-final. Yaneva's fast starts are therefore a reasonable pointer, not a proven surface pattern.
- Yaneva's hard-court sample covers two completed matches from 27-28 October 2026 (five sets), with first sets won 2-0 and an average of 6 games to 2.5 games.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Slight lean

Elizara Yaneva

1.73fair 1.85

BetBugs 54% · Market 57.8%

−3.8ppshort

Yaneva's stronger return and break-point conversion point to more pressure on the Jacquemot serve.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.73
The read
Yaneva's stronger return and break-point conversion point to more pressure on the Jacquemot serve.
- Yaneva is 12-3 over her last 15 matches and 2-0 on hard.
- She has won 50.3% of return points and converted 57.1% of break points.
- Her hard-court sample is only two matches.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostElizara YanevaEstimated chance54%

Games2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Jacquemot's first sets often reach 10 games, while Yaneva's small sample has been shorter.
- Jacquemot's first sets average 10.3 total games on hard.
- Jacquemot has played four first-set tiebreaks in 15 hard matches.
- Yaneva's two hard first sets average 8.5 games.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' hard-court matches sit near this line, and Jacquemot's recent sets have often gone beyond nine games.
- Jacquemot's hard matches average 21.7 total games.
- Yaneva's two hard matches average 21.5 total games.
- Jacquemot has played six hard matches with a tiebreak in 15.
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both second-set averages are below the line, and Yaneva's hard sets have been short.
- Jacquemot's second sets average 9.4 total games on hard.
- Yaneva's two hard second sets average 8.5 games.
- Yaneva's hard second sets were 3-6 and 6-2.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostUnder 9.5Estimated chance52%

Sets2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Jacquemot's hard matches have mostly ended in two sets, and Yaneva has a straight-set win this week.
- Jacquemot has played 12 of 15 hard matches in two sets.
- Yaneva has one two-set win in two hard matches.
- Yaneva's last 15 matches average 2.53 sets.
BetBugs · Total SetslostUnder 2.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Yaneva's start has been stronger in the small hard-court sample, while Jacquemot has often split opening sets.
- Yaneva has won both hard-court first sets in her two matches.
- Jacquemot is 7-8 in first sets over 15 hard matches.
- Jacquemot has played four first-set tiebreaks in that span.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonElizara YanevaEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Jacquemot's second-set record is her strongest set split, and she has won 10 of 15.
- Jacquemot has won 10 of 15 second sets on hard.
- She has won 52.1% of games on hard.
- Yaneva is 1-1 in second sets on hard.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonElsa JacquemotEstimated chance52%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Yaneva's short hard-court sets reduce the chance of a tiebreak.
- Yaneva has played no tiebreak in two hard matches.
- Jacquemot has played six tiebreak matches in 15 hard matches.
- Jacquemot's recent six matches include four with a tiebreak.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostNoEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The combined hard-court rate sits below the line, especially with Yaneva's lower recent hard figure.
- Jacquemot averages 5.0 double faults per match over 15 hard matches.
- Yaneva averages 2.5 double faults per match in two hard matches.
- Yaneva averages 5.1 double faults per match over her last 15 matches.
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableUnder 10.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Jacquemot's serve supplies most of the ace count, and Yaneva has added two per hard match.
- Jacquemot averages 6.7 aces per match over 15 hard matches.
- Yaneva averages 2.0 aces per match in two hard matches.
- Yaneva averages 0.7 aces per match over her last 15 matches.
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 7.5Estimated chance55%

Prediction history

Elizara Yaneva: 3/5 recent winner projections matched

3 of 5 comparable winner projections favouring Elizara Yaneva matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Elizara Yaneva5 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

20 Jul·WTA Palermo

#287Federica Urgesi2-1#196Elizara Yaneva

BetBugsElizara Yaneva to win·58%

Missed

20 Jul 2026

WTA Palermo

#287Federica Urgesi2-1#196Elizara Yaneva

Elizara Yaneva to win

58%probability

Federica Urgesi won

Missed

17 Jul·WTA Rome

#196Elizara Yaneva1-2#405Martina Trevisan

BetBugsElizara Yaneva to win·55%

Missed

17 Jul 2026

WTA Rome

#196Elizara Yaneva1-2#405Martina Trevisan

Elizara Yaneva to win

55%probability

Martina Trevisan won

Missed

15 Jul·WTA Rome

#196Elizara Yaneva2-0#276Sofya Lansere

BetBugsElizara Yaneva to win·62%

Matched

15 Jul 2026

WTA Rome

#196Elizara Yaneva2-0#276Sofya Lansere

Elizara Yaneva to win

62%probability

Elizara Yaneva won

Matched

23 Jun·WTA Wimbledon

#307Yuriko Miyazaki0-2#201Elizara Yaneva

BetBugsElizara Yaneva to win·62%

Matched

23 Jun 2026

WTA Wimbledon

#307Yuriko Miyazaki0-2#201Elizara Yaneva

Elizara Yaneva to win

62%probability

Elizara Yaneva won

Matched

15 Jun·WTA Brescia

#225Elizara Yaneva2-0#312Giorgia Pedone

BetBugsElizara Yaneva to win·62%

Matched

15 Jun 2026

WTA Brescia

#225Elizara Yaneva2-0#312Giorgia Pedone

Elizara Yaneva to win

62%probability

Elizara Yaneva won

Matched

Previous match context available

Elsa Jacquemot

9W 6L

6-7(3) 6-2 6-3#139Susan Bandecchi

2-6 7-5 7-5#264Caroline Werner

6-2 6-4#341Hannah Klugman

6-2 7-6(4)#225Suzan Lamens

7-6(3) 6-2#209Alicia Dudeney

7-6(6) 7-6(4)#274Viktoria Morvayova

7-5 6-2#265Sofya Lansere

7-5 7-6(5)#143Teodora Kostovic

6-3 6-2#298Lea Boskovic

6-1 6-2#451Camilla Zanolini

6-1 6-1#109Claire Liu

7-5 3-6 6-4#50Magdalena Frech

6-3 6-4#250Vivian Wolff

6-4 6-0#300Zongyu Li

7-6(6) 6-2#43Liudmila Samsonova

Elizara Yaneva

12W 3L

6-3 3-6 6-3#101Oksana Selekhmeteva 6-2 6-2#350Jessica Pieri

6-1 4-6 6-4#204Francesca Curmi

6-2 6-2#206Carole Monnet

1-6 7-6(3) 6-1#252Jennifer Ruggeri

6-4 6-4#731Sonja Zhenikhova

4-6 6-4 6-2#619Giulia Safina Popa

2-6 6-1 6-3#213Ane Mintegi Del Olmo

6-0 6-3#238Caijsa Wilda Hennemann

7-5 6-3#329Lidia Encheva

6-2 6-2#443Laura Mair

6-3 6-3#514Margaux Maquet

6-3 6-7(1) 7-6(5)#370Loes Ebeling Koning

4-6 7-6(4) 7-5#269Ipek Oz

4-6 6-2 6-0#513Julia Adams

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

EJElsa JacquemotJacquemot

Last 15

2–6

9 core stats · 1 even

Elizara YanevaYanevaEY

Elizara Yaneva carries the stronger recent form — Elsa Jacquemot's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

1st Serve In58.9%+1.8pp60.7%

1st Serve Won70.5%+8.2pp62.3%

2nd Serve Won44.6%+0.9pp45.5%

Aces / Match6.7+6.00.7

Double Faults / Match5.0—5.1

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won43.7%+6.6pp50.3%

Pressure · 0–2

Break Pts Converted49.5%+7.6pp57.1%

Break Pts Saved53.0%+4.1pp57.1%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won51.5%+1.6pp53.1%

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

58.9%1st Serve In+1.8pp60.7%

70.5%1st Serve Won+8.2pp62.3%

44.6%2nd Serve Won+0.9pp45.5%

6.7Aces / Match+6.00.7

5.0Double Faults / Match—5.1

Return · 0–1

43.7%Return Pts Won+6.6pp50.3%

Pressure · 0–2

49.5%Break Pts Converted+7.6pp57.1%

53.0%Break Pts Saved+4.1pp57.1%

Points · 0–1

51.5%Total Pts Won+1.6pp53.1%