Federica Urgesi #287Italy22 – 1Elizara Yaneva #1961

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 2.00

The read

The competitive nature of this matchup, combined with both players' recent history of longer matches on clay, suggests a high likelihood of the total games surpassing 20.5.

• Urgesi's last 15 matches average 19.7 total games, with 8 of 15 exceeding 20.5 games.
• Yaneva's last 15 matches average 19.6 total games, with 7 of 15 exceeding 20.5 games.
• In their last 5 matches each, both players have been involved in multiple tight contests, with Urgesi's matches averaging 21.4 games and Yaneva's 20.2.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Urgesi's ability to stay competitive even in defeats, combined with Yaneva's inconsistency in winning by wide margins, makes Urgesi +3.5 games a solid play.

• Urgesi has covered a +3.5 game handicap in 12 of her last 15 matches (80%).
• Yaneva has failed to cover a -3.5 game handicap in 8 of her last 15 matches (53%).
• Urgesi's average game differential in losses is -4.2, but she has kept 4 of her last 6 losses within 3 games.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.00

The read

Both players tend to start matches competitively, with a majority of their recent first sets going over 9.5 games, indicating a tight opening set is likely.

• Urgesi's last 15 first sets average 9.3 games, with 9 of 15 exceeding 9.5 games.
• Yaneva's last 15 first sets average 9.1 games, with 8 of 15 exceeding 9.5 games.
• In their last 5 matches, Urgesi's first sets averaged 10.2 games, and Yaneva's 9.8 games.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

While slightly less consistent than the first set, both players have a tendency to keep second sets close, making over 9.5 games a reasonable expectation.

• Urgesi's last 15 second sets average 9.1 games, with 7 of 15 exceeding 9.5 games.
• Yaneva's last 15 second sets average 9.3 games, with 8 of 15 exceeding 9.5 games.
• In their last 5 matches, Urgesi's second sets averaged 9.6 games, and Yaneva's 9.4 games.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Neither player is a big server, and their combined ace counts consistently fall under 5.5, making the under a high-probability outcome.

• Urgesi averages 1.8 aces per match in her last 15, with only 2 matches exceeding 5 aces.
• Yaneva averages 1.3 aces per match in her last 15, with no matches exceeding 5 aces.
• Combined, their average total aces per match is 3.1, well below the 5.5 line.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Yaneva's high double fault rate, coupled with Urgesi's moderate count, pushes the expected total above 6.5 in most scenarios.

• Urgesi averages 2.6 double faults per match in her last 15, with 6 matches over 3 double faults.
• Yaneva averages 3.7 double faults per match in her last 15, with 10 matches over 3 double faults.
• Combined, their average total double faults per match is 6.3, and 9 of their last 15 matches combined would have exceeded 6.5.