Valentin Vacherot #3222 – 1Rafael Jodar #11Spain1

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Jodar's stronger returning and recent hard-court results point to a clear but not overwhelming advantage.

• Ranked 11; 9-5 on the current hard sample with 52.6% of games and 51.0% of total points won.
• Return points won are 39.0% against Vacherot's 34.2%, and break points converted are 39.4%.
• Recent hard matches show 5 wins and 1 loss, including wins over Medvedev and Ruud.
• Hard best-of-3 set evidence shows 9 wins and 4 losses in 13 matches.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.40

The read

Jodar has consistently won more games than he has lost, making a two-game cushion the central case.

• Jodar's current-surface games won rate is 52.6% against Vacherot's 50.3%.
• Jodar's last six completed matches all had positive game margins, averaging +3.7.
• His aggregate current-surface margin is +18 games over 14 matches.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Vacherot's long second sets push the over, while Jodar's average is right at the line.

• Vacherot's second sets average 11.08 total games.
• Jodar's second sets average 10.00 total games.
• Vacherot had 6 tiebreaks in 12 second sets; Jodar had 3 in 13.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Both first-set averages sit near the line, with enough 6-4 and 7-5 sets to make over slightly more likely.

• Vacherot's first sets average 10.25 total games.
• Jodar's first sets average 9.77 total games.
• Vacherot had 2 tiebreaks in 12 first sets; Jodar had 2 in 13.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.30

The read

The combined match-length averages sit just above the line, and Jodar's three-set habit supports over.

• Vacherot's hard best-of-3 matches average 24.67 total games.
• Jodar's hard best-of-3 matches average 24.92 total games.
• Jodar played three sets in 7 of 13; Vacherot in 4 of 12.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Jodar's second-set numbers are the stronger side of his set record.

• Jodar won 8 of 13 second sets on hard best-of-3.
• He averages 5.54 games won and 4.46 lost in second sets.
• Vacherot has lost 7 of 12 second sets.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Jodar's slightly better return and recent form give him the first-set edge.

• Jodar won 7 of 13 first sets on hard best-of-3.
• He averages 5.23 games won and 4.54 lost in first sets.
• Jodar has the higher current-surface games-won rate at 52.6%.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Straight-set outcomes are slightly more common across the two samples.

• Vacherot finished 2-0 or 0-2 in 8 of 12 hard best-of-3 matches.
• Jodar finished 2-0 or 0-2 in 6 of 13.
• Vacherot's 2-0 wins were 4 of 12.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Vacherot's serve supplies most of the ace count, and a longer match tilts the total over.

• Vacherot averages 10.7 aces per match; Jodar averages 4.6.
• Combined average is 15.3 aces per match.
• Vacherot's 139 aces came in 13 matches.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Vacherot's serving profile makes at least one tiebreak more likely than not.

• Vacherot had a tiebreak in 7 of 12 hard best-of-3 matches.
• Jodar had a tiebreak in 5 of 13 hard best-of-3 matches.
• Vacherot's second sets alone produced 6 tiebreaks in 12.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Under is slightly favored because both players' averages leave little room above the line.

• Combined double-fault average is 6.2 per match.
• Jodar averages 2.4 double faults per match.
• Vacherot averages 3.8 across 13 matches.