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Predictions graded

Alejandro Tabilo #310Rafael Jodar #11Spain2

Sets 4-6 · 2-6Tue 27 Oct 2026, 13:10 Predictions gradedFirst RoundI.hard

Predictions4–544%

Edges2–529%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageRafael Jodar · 20 places

Alejandro Tabilo

Reached career-high No. 19 in July 2024 and lists clay as his preferred surface. The left-hander has also won ATP titles on hard and grass.

Current ranking: #31
Peak ranking: #19 · 2024
Current age: 29
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Left handed
Height: 188 cm

Rafael Jodar

Spain

The 19-year-old reached a new career-high No. 15 following his August 2026 Washington final. He plays right-handed with a two-handed backhand.

Current ranking: #11
Peak ranking: #15 · 2026
Current age: 19
Preferred surface: I.hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 188 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 25 Oct 2026, 13:48 · Europe/Bucharest

Jodar, No. 11 and fresh off a Shanghai final, leads their 2026 head-to-head 2-1, yet Tabilo beat him 6-1 6-2 in March and has taken the first set in two of three meetings.

Jodar is the likelier winner, but 1.29 asks more than that justifies. The prices with room are over 23.5 games at 2.3, over 2.5 sets at 2.6, Jodar 2-1 at 3.8, Tabilo +3.5 games at 2.1 and Tabilo for the first set at 3.0.

Context

The Shanghai run gives Jodar immediate high-level tournament context before Basel. Beating Medvedev carried him into an all-Spanish Masters 1000 final, marking a major stage milestone in the same month as this fixture. The final ended in defeat, so this establishes a breakthrough run rather than a title-winning sequence.
- Jodar defeated Medvedev 6-3, 6-4 in the Shanghai semi-final .
ReportedSources checked 25 Oct 2026, 13:46 · Europe/BucharestTennis Majorswww.tennismajors.com · 17 Oct 2026
This is a recent, specific previous meeting between the two players. The 6-2, 6-1 score supplies direct matchup context entering Basel and is more informative than a bare head-to-head tally. The available record gives the result but does not identify a tactical cause for the margin.
- Jodar won the Cincinnati Masters round-of-32 meeting 6-2, 6-1 .
ReportedSources checked 25 Oct 2026, 13:46 · Europe/BucharestTennis My Lifestats.tennismylife.org · 18 Aug 2026
Seven of those 13 matches went the distance, five of them Jodar wins, so a quick straight-sets finish against Tabilo is not the pattern his hard-court record shows. The counterweight is four straight-set wins in the same window, which is why the longer matches are a tendency rather than a rule. Six of the 13 also contained a tiebreak, underlining how tight the sets have been.
- 13 completed hard-court best-of-3 matches tracked, 11 Aug–18 Oct 2026.
- Scorelines: five 2-1 wins, two 1-2 losses, four 2-0 wins, two 0-2 losses; average 2.54 sets per match.
- Six of the 13 matches contained at least one tiebreak.
The final gives the Shanghai breakthrough a defined conclusion immediately before Basel. Jodar reached a position of advantage before Davidovich Fokina reversed the match, which is relevant context for the calibre and outcome of that run. It does not establish a current availability or physical issue for this fixture.
- Jodar lost the Shanghai final after his opponent recovered from a set and a break down.
ReportedSources checked 25 Oct 2026, 13:46 · Europe/BucharestTennis Majorswww.tennismajors.com · 18 Oct 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 5

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.29
The read
Jodar has the better ranking, stronger recent hard-court form and a 2-1 head-to-head lead in 2026.
- Jodar is 10-5 in his last 15 and 9-5 on hard; Tabilo is 7-8 and 7-7 on hard.
- Jodar won two of three 2026 head-to-heads, including 6-2 6-1 in August.
- Jodar's hard set evidence has nine wins in 13 matches.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonRafael JodarEstimated chance71%

Games1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.30
The read
Both players' recent hard-court matches average more than 25 games, with Jodar often going the distance.
- Hard-court set evidence total games averages: Tabilo 25.1, Jodar 25.2.
- Jodar's hard matches average 2.54 sets; Tabilo's average 2.45.
- Five of Jodar's last six hard matches had at least 27 total games.
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 23.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.10
The read
Tabilo only needs to stay within three games, and Jodar's recent margins were often close.
- Tabilo's recent hard game margins: +9, -1, -1, -4, -9.
- Jodar's last six hard matches had game margins +5, +3, +5, +1, +5, +2.
- Jodar won by four or more games in three of those six matches.
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostAlejandro Tabilo +3.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' hard-court first sets average about ten games, leaving 9.5 near the middle.
- Set1 average total games: Tabilo 10.09, Jodar 10.00 on hard.
- Set1 tiebreaks: Tabilo 2 of 11, Jodar 3 of 13.
- Both players' set1 games won and lost averages are close to 5-5.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance56%

Sets2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.33
The read
Jodar's second-set record and game margin are stronger than Tabilo's.
- Jodar won set2 in 8 of 13 hard set-evidence matches; Tabilo in 5 of 11.
- Jodar's set2 games average 5.54 won to 4.54 lost.
- Jodar has won five of his last six hard matches.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonRafael JodarEstimated chance59%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Jodar has the stronger recent hard-court form and took the first set in the latest meeting.
- Jodar won set1 in 7 of 13 hard set-evidence matches; Tabilo in 6 of 11.
- Jodar won set1 6-2 in the most recent head-to-head.
- Jodar is 9-5 on hard this window to Tabilo's 7-7.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonRafael JodarEstimated chance57%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.60
The read
Both players have gone past two sets in close to half their hard-court matches, and Jodar's recent run is longer.
- Jodar went to a third set in 7 of 13 hard set-evidence matches; Tabilo in 5 of 11.
- Jodar's average sets per hard match is 2.54; Tabilo's is 2.45.
- Five of Jodar's last six hard matches went three sets.
BetBugs · Total SetslostOver 2.5Estimated chance54%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined double-fault average is just above 4.5.
- Tabilo averages 2.5 double faults per match; Jodar 2.4 on hard.
- Combined average is 4.9 per match.
- Tabilo's first-serve in rate is 62.7%; Jodar's is 64.3%.
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 4.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have tiebreaks in roughly half their hard-court matches.
- Tabilo had a tiebreak in 5 of 11 hard set-evidence matches; Jodar in 6 of 13.
- Set1 tiebreaks: Tabilo 2/11, Jodar 3/13; set2: 3/11 and 3/13.
- Jodar's set1 and set2 game averages are close to 5-5.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined ace rate sits just above 11.5.
- Tabilo averages 7.3 aces per match; Jodar 4.5 on hard.
- Combined average is 11.8 aces per match.
- Tabilo's first-serve points won is 75.1%; Jodar's is 68.6%.
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 11.5Estimated chance53%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

The 1.29 price requires 77.5%, above our 71.0% estimate.

Prediction history

Rafael Jodar: 14/15 recent winner projections matched

14 of 15 comparable winner projections favouring Rafael Jodar matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Rafael Jodar15 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

1 Aug·ATP Washington

#24Rafael Jodar2-1#15Lorenzo Musetti

BetBugsRafael Jodar to win·58%

Matched

1 Aug 2026

ATP Washington

#24Rafael Jodar2-1#15Lorenzo Musetti

Rafael Jodar to win

58%probability

Rafael Jodar won

Matched

30 Jul·ATP Washington

#24Rafael Jodar2-0#721Kei Nishikori

BetBugsRafael Jodar to win·72%

Matched

30 Jul 2026

ATP Washington

#24Rafael Jodar2-0#721Kei Nishikori

Rafael Jodar to win

72%probability

Rafael Jodar won

Matched

3 Jul·ATP Wimbledon

#26Rafael Jodar1-3#151Shintaro Mochizuki

BetBugsRafael Jodar to win·65%

Missed

3 Jul 2026

ATP Wimbledon

#26Rafael Jodar1-3#151Shintaro Mochizuki

Rafael Jodar to win

65%probability

Shintaro Mochizuki won

Missed

2 Jul·ATP Wimbledon

#26Rafael Jodar3-2#71Pablo Carreno-Busta

BetBugsRafael Jodar to win·65%

Matched

2 Jul 2026

ATP Wimbledon

#26Rafael Jodar3-2#71Pablo Carreno-Busta

Rafael Jodar to win

65%probability

Rafael Jodar won

Matched

29 Jun·ATP Wimbledon

#26Rafael Jodar3-0#220Felix Gill

BetBugsRafael Jodar to win·78%

Matched

29 Jun 2026

ATP Wimbledon

#26Rafael Jodar3-0#220Felix Gill

Rafael Jodar to win

78%probability

Rafael Jodar won

Matched

Head-to-Head

1-2 (3 meetings)

L6-2 6-1Alejandro Tabilo#31vRafael Jodar#11Aug 17, 2026

L6-7(6) 6-4 6-4Alejandro Tabilo#31vRafael Jodar#11Aug 1, 2026

W6-1 6-2Alejandro Tabilo#31vRafael Jodar#11Mar 5, 2026

3 total meetings

Alejandro Tabilo

7W 8L

4-6 7-6(2) 6-4#74Pablo Carreno-Busta

7-5 3-6 6-4#47Denis Shapovalov

6-1 6-2#15Tommy Paul

6-4 6-4#79Adrian Mannarino

5-7 6-3 6-3#42Daniel Merida Aguilar

6-2 7-6(2) 6-2#2Alexander Zverev

2-6 7-6(4) 7-6(3) 6-2#126Alexei Popyrin

6-3 6-2 6-7(7) 6-3#59Yannick Hanfmann

6-2 6-1#11Rafael Jodar

6-3 6-4#58Jan-Lennard Struff

6-4 7-6(4)#30Hubert Hurkacz

6-7(6) 6-4 6-4#11Rafael Jodar

4-6 7-5 6-4#4Ben Shelton

6-3 7-6(6)#98Terence Atmane

7-6(3) 4-6 6-4#60Tallon Griekspoor

Rafael Jodar

10W 5L

1-6 7-6(5) 6-4#13Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

6-3 6-4#5Daniil Medvedev

4-6 6-4 6-3#24Casper Ruud

6-7(4) 6-4 6-2#38Botic Van De Zandschulp

4-6 7-6(2) 6-4#20Jiri Lehecka

4-6 6-2 6-3#50Thiago Agustin Tirante

6-1 6-3#54Adolfo Daniel Vallejo

6-2 6-3#19Alexander Bublik

6-0 6-2#131Cristian Garin

6-2 6-1 6-1#91Bu Yunchaokete

4-6 7-6(3) 6-3#6Flavio Cobolli

6-2 6-1#31Alejandro Tabilo

7-5 4-6 7-5#47Denis Shapovalov

7-6(3) 6-4#17Brandon Nakashima

7-6(5) 6-3#10Arthur Fils

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

ATAlejandro TabiloTabilo

Last 15

4–3

9 core stats · 2 even

Rafael JodarJodarRJ

Alejandro Tabilo carries the stronger recent form — Rafael Jodar's route runs through pressure.

Serve · 3–1 · 1 even

1st Serve In14/15 · 14/1562.7%+1.6pp64.3%

1st Serve Won14/15 · 14/1575.1%+6.5pp68.6%

2nd Serve Won14/15 · 14/1551.7%+1.0pp50.7%

Aces / Match14/15 · 14/157.3+2.84.5

Double Faults / Match14/15 · 14/152.5—2.4

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won14/15 · 14/1534.1%+4.8pp38.9%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted14/15 · 14/1541.1%+1.8pp39.3%

Break Pts Saved14/15 · 14/1558.4%+6.6pp65.0%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

Total Pts Won14/15 · 14/1550.4%—50.7%

Serve · 3–1 · 1 even

62.7%1st Serve In14/15 · 14/15+1.6pp64.3%

75.1%1st Serve Won14/15 · 14/15+6.5pp68.6%

51.7%2nd Serve Won14/15 · 14/15+1.0pp50.7%

7.3Aces / Match14/15 · 14/15+2.84.5

2.5Double Faults / Match14/15 · 14/15—2.4

Return · 0–1

34.1%Return Pts Won14/15 · 14/15+4.8pp38.9%

Pressure · 1–1

41.1%Break Pts Converted14/15 · 14/15+1.8pp39.3%

58.4%Break Pts Saved14/15 · 14/15+6.6pp65.0%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

50.4%Total Pts Won14/15 · 14/15—50.7%

Alejandro Tabilo

Rafael Jodar

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Over 23.5

Alejandro Tabilo +3.5

Over 2.5

Alejandro Tabilo

Rafael Jodar 2-1

Rafael Jodar

Rafael Jodar

Result1 of 1 landed

Games1 of 3 landed

Sets2 of 3 landed

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Markets to Avoid

Rafael Jodar

Head-to-Head

Alejandro Tabilo

Rafael Jodar

Stat Battle