United StatesSioux Falls - USAFinished

Predictions graded

Jenson Brooksby #99United States0Dylan Dietrich #252Switzerland2

Sets 3-6 · 3-6Thu 29 Oct 2026, 00:15 Predictions gradedSecond RoundI.hard

Predictions2–722%

Edges0–20%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageJenson Brooksby · 153 places

Jenson Brooksby

United States

Brooksby, 25, is the right-hander in this matchup. He returned in 2025 after left- and right-wrist surgeries in 2023; those surgeries are career background rather than a current tournament development.

Current ranking: #99
Peak ranking: #33 · 2022
Current age: 25
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 193 cm

Dylan Dietrich

Switzerland

Current ranking is No. 437 in the supplied structured data. Reliable public profile detail on age, career high and preferred surface was limited in the requested search.

Current ranking: #252
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 193 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 28 Oct 2026, 03:11 · Europe/Bucharest

A No. 99 against a No. 252 who has won all eight hard-court matches in straight sets.

Brooksby's ranking and point numbers still make him the likelier winner, but 1.55 asks for 64.5% and the case is thinner than that; the 1.6 second-set price is no better. No reviewed price is worth backing.

Context

Dietrich arrives on the best hard-court sequence of the two players, though against a lower-tier field than Brooksby has faced.
Dietrich's eight hard-court matches average only 19.5 total games, and he has not been taken to a third set in any of them. That straight-set pattern is the clearest counterweight to a ranking of 252. The sample is eight matches with two retirements excluded, so it is a short run rather than a settled level.
- Dietrich is 8-0 on hard courts across 8 matches from 2026-09-21 to 2026-10-27, per setEvidence.
- All eight wins were 2-0, with a set1 record of 8-0 and a set2 record of 8-0.
- Average total games per match in that sample: 19.5 games.
- Two retirements were excluded from the sample.
Brooksby's edge in this sample shows up after the opening set rather than during it.
Brooksby's first sets have been close to even at 7-7, while his second sets show a clear advantage at 10-4. He averages 2.21 sets per hard-court match, so he often finishes in two. The first-set split argues against expecting him to jump ahead early.
- Brooksby's set1 record is 7-7 over 14 hard matches from 2026-08-14 to 2026-10-27.
- His set2 record is 10-4 in the same 14-match sample.
- First sets average 5.0 games won to 4.8 lost; second sets average 5.6 to 4.4.
- Average sets per match in that sample: 2.21.
Dietrich's clean scorelines have not always meant comfortable sets, which matters against a returner of Brooksby's standard.
Dietrich beat Colton Smith 6-3 7-5 indoors on 27 October 2026, and earlier 2-0 wins included a 7-5 set against Andrew Fenty and a 7-6 set against Jeff Wolf. Only two of his eight hard-court matches have contained a tiebreak, so tight sets have usually been closed out before a shootout. This is a small sample, and it is not evidence of trouble against a higher-ranked opponent.
- On 2026-10-27 Dietrich beat Colton Smith (ranked 218) 6-3 7-5 on indoor hard.
- Earlier 2-0 wins included a 7-5 set against Andrew Fenty (2026-09-30) and a 7-6 set against Jeff Wolf (2026-09-29).
- Dietrich's eight hard-court matches contain two tiebreaks.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 2

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Lean

Jenson Brooksby

1.55fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 64.5%

−2.5ppshort

Brooksby's higher ranking and stronger overall point numbers give him the clearer match edge.

Set 2 WinnerlostUncertainty band: Lean

Jenson Brooksby

1.60fair 1.72

BetBugs 58% · Market 62.5%

−4.5ppshort

Brooksby's second-set record is much stronger than his first-set record.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.55
The read
Brooksby's higher ranking and stronger overall point numbers give him the clearer match edge.
- Brooksby is ranked 99; Dietrich is ranked 252.
- Brooksby is 10-5 in his last 15 hard-court matches.
- Brooksby has won 6 straight completed matches, including two in three sets.
- Dietrich is 8-0 on hard but has no serve or return metrics available.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostJenson BrooksbyEstimated chance62%

Games0 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second sets in both samples average slightly above the line.
- Brooksby's second sets average 10.0 total games over 14 matches.
- Dietrich's second sets average 9.75 total games over 8 matches.
- Brooksby has 2 second-set tiebreaks in 14 matches.
- Dietrich has 1 second-set tiebreak in 8 matches.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
First-set games sit just above the line in both hard-court samples.
- Brooksby's first sets average 9.79 total games over 14 matches.
- Dietrich's first sets average 9.75 total games over 8 matches.
- Brooksby has 1 first-set tiebreak in 14 matches.
- Dietrich has 1 first-set tiebreak in 8 matches.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The line sits near the combined recent totals, and Brooksby's three-set matches add upward room.
- Brooksby's 14 hard-court matches average 21.5 total games.
- Dietrich's 8 hard-court matches average 19.5 total games.
- Brooksby has played 3 three-set matches in his 14-match hard sample.
- Dietrich has played 0 three-set matches in his 8-match hard sample.
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 20.5Estimated chance51%

Sets1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Dietrich has won all eight hard matches in straight sets and Brooksby often finishes in two.
- Brooksby's hard-court sample has 3 three-set matches from 14.
- Dietrich's hard-court sample has 0 three-set matches from 8.
- Brooksby's average hard-court match lasts 2.21 sets.
- Dietrich's average hard-court match lasts 2.00 sets.
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance73%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.60
The read
Brooksby's second-set record is much stronger than his first-set record.
- Brooksby is 10-4 in second sets across 14 hard-court matches.
- Dietrich is 8-0 in second sets across 8 hard-court matches.
- Brooksby averages 5.6 second-set games won to 4.4 lost.
- Brooksby has won 6 straight completed matches.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerlostJenson BrooksbyEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Brooksby's higher level gives him a narrow first-set edge despite an even first-set record.
- Brooksby is 7-7 in first sets across 14 hard-court matches.
- Dietrich is 8-0 in first sets across 8 hard-court matches.
- Brooksby is ranked 99; Dietrich is ranked 252.
- Brooksby averages 5.0 first-set games won to 4.8 lost.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostJenson BrooksbyEstimated chance53%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Most hard-court matches for both players have finished without a tiebreak.
- Brooksby has 3 tiebreak matches in 14 hard-court matches.
- Dietrich has 2 tiebreak matches in 8 hard-court matches.
- Brooksby's hard matches average 21.5 total games.
- Dietrich's hard matches average 19.5 total games.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance72%

Previous match context available

Jenson Brooksby

10W 5L

6-3 6-3#572Bryce Nakashima 6-1 6-4#159Darwin Blanch 6-7(14) 6-3 6-2#673Gabriel Debru 6-4 6-2#864Patrick Maloney

6-2 6-4#351Timo Legout

3-6 6-3 6-2#349Mitchell Krueger

6-1 6-3#13Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

7-5 6-4#51Jaume Antoni Munar Clar

6-4 7-6(4)#128Nikoloz Basilashvili

5-7 7-5 6-2#89Lorenzo Sonego

7-5 7-5#49Sebastian Baez

6-3 7-6(4) 4-6 1-6 6-2#56Jaime Faria

6-4 7-6(6)#39Stefanos Tsitsipas

6-3 6-2#145Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard

6-3 6-2#56Jaime Faria

Dylan Dietrich

12W 3L

6-3 7-5#218Colton Smith

6-3 6-2#306Abedallah Shelbayh

6-3 1-0 ret.#224Andres Andrade

6-3 6-3#159Darwin Blanch

7-5 6-2#456Andrew Fenty

7-6(6) 6-3#216Jeff Wolf

6-7(10) 6-4 5-1 ret.#134Nishesh Basavareddy

6-3 7-5#220Henry Searle

6-2 7-6(4)#196Keegan Smith

6-3 6-1#806Dinko Dinev

4-6 6-3 6-4#240Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida

7-6(6) 7-6(5)#175Vitaliy Sachko

6-3 7-6(4)#440Oleksii Krutykh

6-4 6-3#111Thiago Seyboth Wild

6-3 6-3#202Harold Mayot

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

JBJenson BrooksbyBrooksby

Last 15

3–6

9 core stats · 0 even

Dylan DietrichDietrichDD

Dylan Dietrich carries the stronger recent form — Jenson Brooksby's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–3

1st Serve In68.2%+7.8pp60.4%

1st Serve Won72.2%+3.0pp75.2%

2nd Serve Won51.4%+1.2pp52.6%

Aces / Match3.7+3.26.9

Double Faults / Match1.41.2 fewer2.6

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won39.6%+1.0pp40.6%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted47.4%+9.9pp37.5%

Break Pts Saved61.4%+10.6pp72.0%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won52.4%+0.8pp53.2%

Serve · 2–3

68.2%1st Serve In+7.8pp60.4%

72.2%1st Serve Won+3.0pp75.2%

51.4%2nd Serve Won+1.2pp52.6%

3.7Aces / Match+3.26.9

1.4Double Faults / Match1.2 fewer2.6

Return · 0–1

39.6%Return Pts Won+1.0pp40.6%

Pressure · 1–1

47.4%Break Pts Converted+9.9pp37.5%

61.4%Break Pts Saved+10.6pp72.0%

Points · 0–1

52.4%Total Pts Won+0.8pp53.2%