United StatesSioux Falls - USAFinishedFeatured

Predictions graded

Jenson Brooksby #99United States2Bryce Nakashima #572United States0

Sets 6-3 · 6-3Tue 27 Oct 2026, 18:00 Predictions gradedFirst RoundI.hard

Predictions8–189%

Edges0–30%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageJenson Brooksby · 473 places

Jenson Brooksby

United States

Brooksby, 25, is the right-hander in this matchup. He returned in 2025 after left- and right-wrist surgeries in 2023; those surgeries are career background rather than a current tournament development.

Current ranking: #99
Peak ranking: #33 · 2022
Current age: 25
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 193 cm

Bryce Nakashima

United States

Nakashima, 22, is the right-hander in this matchup; hard is listed as his preferred surface. His career-best singles ranking is No. 865, reached on 24 August 2026.

Current ranking: #572
Peak ranking: #865 · 2026
Current age: 22
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 183 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 25 Oct 2026, 15:26 · Europe/Bucharest

Brooksby is 473 places higher and the likely winner, yet he has lost 8 of 14 opening sets in his hard-court matches since August while Nakashima has taken 10 of 14.

Brooksby at 1.08 for the match, 1.18 for the first set and 1.20 for the second offers almost nothing. Nakashima's 4.25, 4.00 and 6.50 are the three prices with room.

Context

In this window 11 of his 14 completed hard-court best-of-three matches needed only two sets, which shapes the match more than the ranking gap does. The caveat is recency: two of his four wins in the past week went to a third set, 2-1 over Mitchell Krueger on 19 October and 2-1 over Gabriel Debru on 24 October.
- 14 completed hard-court best-of-three matches tracked from 4 August to 24 October 2026
- Straight-set finishes: six wins 2-0 and five losses 0-2
- Three matches finished 2-1
- Average of 21.9 total games per match
Fast starts are the main reason he is not a routine first-round opponent at No. 572, and six of those 14 matches contained a tiebreak, so sets stay close even when he wins them. The limitation is opposition and sample: 14 matches, mostly against lower-ranked players, with one retirement excluded and no serve or return data recorded.
- 14 completed hard-court best-of-three matches tracked, 2 August to 1 October 2026
- First-set record 10-4, second-set record 10-4
- Six of the 14 matches included a tiebreak
- One retirement excluded from the sample
It shows he can handle a top-50 player on this surface, which matters against an opponent ranked 572. The counterpoint is that he lost his next completed match 1-6 3-6 to No. 13 Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, so the result marks a ceiling as much as a floor.
- 8 October 2026: beat Jaume Munar Clar (ranked 51) 7-5 6-4 on hard
- Sets: 7-5, 6-4, no tiebreak

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Brooksby is higher-ranked, more active and has stronger overall point numbers.
- Brooksby is ranked 99 versus Nakashima at 572.
- Brooksby has a 9-6 record on hard and 51.9% total points won.
- He won his latest four completed matches, though against lower-ranked opponents.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonJenson BrooksbyEstimated chance68%

Games2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second sets have regularly reached at least ten games.
- Brooksby's second sets average 10.2 total games.
- Nakashima's second sets average 10.1 total games.
- Brooksby has a 9-5 second-set record.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Nakashima's first sets have tended to finish before ten games.
- Nakashima's first sets average 9.6 total games.
- Brooksby's first sets average 9.9 total games.
- Brooksby has a 6-8 first-set record.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Straight-set wins are common for both players and keep many totals below the line.
- Brooksby's hard-court matches average 21.9 total games.
- Nakashima's hard-court matches average 23.1 total games.
- 21 of their combined 28 hard matches finished in straight sets.
BetBugs · Total GameswonUnder 22.5Estimated chance51%

Sets3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Most recent hard matches for both players ended in two sets.
- Brooksby finished 11 of 14 hard matches in straight sets.
- Nakashima finished 10 of 14 hard matches in straight sets.
- Brooksby is ranked 99 versus Nakashima at 572.
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Brooksby's second-set record is stronger than his first-set record and he has come from behind recently.
- Brooksby has a 9-5 second-set record on hard.
- Nakashima has a 10-4 second-set record on hard.
- Brooksby has 51.9% total points won on hard.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonJenson BrooksbyEstimated chance61%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Brooksby's ranking and overall level outweigh his modest first-set record.
- Brooksby has a 6-8 first-set record on hard.
- Nakashima has a 10-4 first-set record on hard.
- Brooksby is ranked 99 versus Nakashima at 572.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonJenson BrooksbyEstimated chance56%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Most completed hard-court matches for both players did not include a tiebreak.
- Brooksby had no tiebreak in 11 of 14 hard matches.
- Nakashima had no tiebreak in 8 of 14 hard matches.
- Brooksby averages 3.4 aces and 1.2 double faults per match.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance62%

Previous match context available

Jenson Brooksby

9W 6L

6-7(14) 6-3 6-2#673Gabriel Debru 6-4 6-2#864Patrick Maloney

6-2 6-4#351Timo Legout

3-6 6-3 6-2#349Mitchell Krueger

6-1 6-3#13Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

7-5 6-4#51Jaume Antoni Munar Clar

6-4 7-6(4)#128Nikoloz Basilashvili

5-7 7-5 6-2#89Lorenzo Sonego

7-5 7-5#49Sebastian Baez

6-3 7-6(4) 4-6 1-6 6-2#56Jaime Faria

6-4 7-6(6)#39Stefanos Tsitsipas

6-3 6-2#145Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard

6-3 6-2#56Jaime Faria

6-3 7-5#4Ben Shelton

6-3 6-4#97Adam Walton

Bryce Nakashima

11W 4L

6-4 3-6 7-5#196Keegan Smith

4-6 6-2 7-6(8)#398Jack Kennedy

6-3 6-3#159Darwin Blanch

7-6(6) 6-2#351Timo Legout

7-5 6-7(4) 7-6(3)#203Andre Ilagan

6-2 6-4#468Quinn Vandecasteele

7-5 6-0#573Kaylan Bigun

6-2 7-6(6)—Jakub Vrba

6-2 7-6(5)—Preston Stearns

6-3 6-4#731Jack Anthrop

6-3 6-2—Tyler Bowers

6-3 7-5—Rocco Piatti

4-6 7-6(5) 6-4—Alexander Okonkwo

5-2 ret.#864Patrick Maloney

6-1 6-3#331Mees Rottgering

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

JBJenson BrooksbyBrooksby

Last 15

3–5

9 core stats · 1 even

Bryce NakashimaNakashimaBN

Bryce Nakashima carries the stronger recent form — Jenson Brooksby's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

1st Serve In69.1%+10.8pp58.3%

1st Serve Won70.8%+4.2pp75.0%

2nd Serve Won52.8%—53.4%

Aces / Match3.4+3.26.6

Double Faults / Match1.20.8 fewer2.0

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won38.9%+1.1pp40.0%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted45.7%+3.0pp42.7%

Break Pts Saved62.3%+7.0pp69.3%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won51.9%+1.0pp52.9%

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

69.1%1st Serve In+10.8pp58.3%

70.8%1st Serve Won+4.2pp75.0%

52.8%2nd Serve Won—53.4%

3.4Aces / Match+3.26.6

1.2Double Faults / Match0.8 fewer2.0

Return · 0–1

38.9%Return Pts Won+1.1pp40.0%

Pressure · 1–1

45.7%Break Pts Converted+3.0pp42.7%

62.3%Break Pts Saved+7.0pp69.3%

Points · 0–1

51.9%Total Pts Won+1.0pp52.9%