United StatesFort Worth - USAFinishedFeatured

Predictions graded

Jenson Brooksby #99United States2Gabriel Debru #673France1

Sets 6-7 · 6-3 · 6-2Sat 24 Oct 2026, 21:30 Predictions gradedSemi-FinalHard

Predictions3–633%

Edges0–30%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageJenson Brooksby · 574 places

Jenson Brooksby

United States

Brooksby is listed at No. 99, with hard as his preferred surface.

Current ranking: #99
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 193 cm

Gabriel Debru

France

Debru is listed at No. 673, with hard as his preferred surface.

Current ranking: #673
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 193 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 24 Oct 2026, 19:49 · Europe/Bucharest

Top-100 against No. 673 in a Fort Worth semifinal: Brooksby has the ranking and the steadier serve, but Debru is 9-1 on hard in this sample and has taken the second set in each of his last six completed matches.

Brooksby looks the likelier winner, but 1.18 offers nothing; the Debru prices — 4.25 to win, 3.5 for the second set, 8 for a 2-1 win — are the ones with something in them.

Context

Debru lost the opening set in five of the nine hard-court matches in the sample, then won the second set in eight of nine.
The pattern says a slow start does not end Debru's chances in Fort Worth, and that a third set is a live possibility against a higher-ranked opponent.
- Hard-court set evidence, nine matches from 27 Jul to 23 Oct 2026: set 2 record 8-1, 5.9 games won per second set.
- Same nine matches by scoreline: three 2-0 wins and six 2-1 wins.
That match was the only loss in Debru's hard-court sample, and it came against one of the lowest-ranked opponents he has faced.
The scoreline shows Debru's level can drop sharply against modest opposition, which is a real risk against a top-100 player, though he has won five of six completed matches since.
- Match on 13 Oct 2026: lost 3-6 6-2 8-10 to Micah Braswell (ranked 888); games 17-18.
- Debru's hard-court set evidence lists one loss in nine matches over the same window.
The listing places this match one win from the final, defining the immediate tournament stakes. That stage frames the result as a semifinal rather than an early-round meeting. The available fixture detail establishes the stage and surface but contains no player-specific availability, workload or court-condition information.
- The fixture is listed as a Fort Worth Challenger men's-singles semifinal on hard court for .
ConfirmedSources checked 24 Oct 2026, 19:47 · Europe/BucharestFort Worth Challenger fixture listingwww.flashscore.com.au · 24 Oct 2026
Krueger, ranked 349, took the opening set before Brooksby won 12 of the last 15 games.
Brooksby has answered the only extended test of his week, and his straight-set wins on 21 and 23 October suggest the recovery did not cost him rhythm.
- Match on 19 Oct 2026: won 3-6 6-3 6-2 against Mitchell Krueger (ranked 349); games 15-11.
- Set scores show only the first set went against him before a 6-3, 6-2 finish.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Brooksby has the higher ranking, more secure serve and wins over stronger recent opposition.
- Brooksby is ranked 99; Debru is ranked 673.
- Brooksby has won all three matches at Fort Worth, including a 2-0 win over Maloney.
- Brooksby's first-serve-in rate is 68.4% and double faults 1.2 per match, against Debru's 64.1% and 3.9.
- Debru's 9-1 hard record includes wins over players ranked 208, 490, 588, 696, 888 and one unranked.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonJenson BrooksbyEstimated chance62%

Games1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Debru's matches regularly run long and a third set would push the total over the line.
- Debru's hard-court matches average 24.6 total games; Brooksby's average 21.1.
- Six of Debru's nine hard-court wins went to a third set.
- Debru has played 26, 24, 35 and 31 total games in four of his last six matches.
- Brooksby played a 23-game match against Basilashvili.
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 22.5Estimated chance59%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Debru has mostly produced short first sets, which favors the under.
- Debru's set1 matches average 9.2 total games.
- Debru's last six first sets had five under 9.5.
- Brooksby's set1 average is 9.5, near the line.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostUnder 9.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Brooksby's second sets tend to run longer, giving the over a slight chance.
- Brooksby's set2 matches average 10.4 total games.
- Brooksby's second sets against Munar and Basilashvili reached 10 and 13 games.
- Debru's set2 average is 9.4 games.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance51%

Sets1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Brooksby is the higher-ranked player and Debru has often started slowly.
- Brooksby's set1 record on hard is 6-8; Debru's is 4-5.
- Debru has lost the first set in four of his last six matches.
- Brooksby won the first set in three of his last six matches.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostJenson BrooksbyEstimated chance56%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Debru often needs a third set, and Brooksby has already been extended at this tournament.
- Six of Debru's nine hard-court wins were 2-1.
- Debru has played three sets in four of his last six completed matches.
- Brooksby played a three-set match against Krueger this week.
BetBugs · Total SetswonOver 2.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 3.50
The read
Debru's second-set numbers are the strongest single split in the match evidence.
- Debru's hard-court set2 record is 8-1 with an average of 5.9 games won.
- Debru won the second set in all six of his recent completed matches.
- Brooksby's set2 record is 8-6.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerlostGabriel DebruEstimated chance54%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Tiebreaks have been rare in both players' hard-court matches.
- Only three of 23 hard-court matches in the set evidence included a tiebreak.
- Brooksby's set1 had zero tiebreaks in 14 matches; Debru's set1 had zero in nine.
- Debru's last six completed matches had no tiebreak.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostNoEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Debru's ace rate is solid, and a longer match would raise the total.
- Debru averages 4.6 aces per match on hard; Brooksby averages 3.5.
- Debru's hard-court ace rate is higher than his overall 3.9 per match.
- A three-set match adds service games.
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 7.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined double-fault average sits near the line, and Brooksby's low rate favors the under.
- Brooksby averages only 1.2 double faults per match on hard.
- Debru averages 3.9, for a combined average near 5.1.
- Debru's double-fault average is below 4 per match.
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableUnder 5.5Estimated chance53%

Prediction history

Jenson Brooksby: 3/5 recent winner projections matched

3 of 5 comparable winner projections favouring Jenson Brooksby matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Jenson Brooksby5 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

31 Jul·ATP Los Cabos

#108Chak Lam Coleman Wong2-0#77Jenson Brooksby

BetBugsJenson Brooksby to win·58%

Missed

31 Jul 2026

ATP Los Cabos

#108Chak Lam Coleman Wong2-0#77Jenson Brooksby

Jenson Brooksby to win

58%probability

Chak Lam Coleman Wong won

Missed

30 Jul·ATP Los Cabos

#391Edward Winter0-2#77Jenson Brooksby

BetBugsJenson Brooksby to win·62%

Matched

30 Jul 2026

ATP Los Cabos

#391Edward Winter0-2#77Jenson Brooksby

Jenson Brooksby to win

62%probability

Jenson Brooksby won

Matched

29 Jun·ATP Wimbledon

#103Aleksandar Vukic0-3#67Jenson Brooksby

BetBugsJenson Brooksby to win·62%

Matched

29 Jun 2026

ATP Wimbledon

#103Aleksandar Vukic0-3#67Jenson Brooksby

Jenson Brooksby to win

62%probability

Jenson Brooksby won

Matched

23 Jun·ATP Eastbourne

#73Jenson Brooksby2-0#98Aleksandar Vukic

BetBugsJenson Brooksby to win·58%

Matched

23 Jun 2026

ATP Eastbourne

#73Jenson Brooksby2-0#98Aleksandar Vukic

Jenson Brooksby to win

58%probability

Jenson Brooksby won

Matched

9 Jun·ATP 's-Hertogenbosch

#224Zhizhen Zhang2-1#63Jenson Brooksby

BetBugsJenson Brooksby to win·62%

Missed

9 Jun 2026

ATP 's-Hertogenbosch

#224Zhizhen Zhang2-1#63Jenson Brooksby

Jenson Brooksby to win

62%probability

Zhizhen Zhang won

Missed

Previous match context available

Jenson Brooksby

8W 7L

6-4 6-2#864Patrick Maloney

6-2 6-4#351Timo Legout

3-6 6-3 6-2#349Mitchell Krueger

6-1 6-3#13Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

7-5 6-4#51Jaume Antoni Munar Clar

6-4 7-6(4)#128Nikoloz Basilashvili

5-7 7-5 6-2#89Lorenzo Sonego

7-5 7-5#49Sebastian Baez

6-3 7-6(4) 4-6 1-6 6-2#56Jaime Faria

6-4 7-6(6)#39Stefanos Tsitsipas

6-3 6-2#145Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard

6-3 6-2#56Jaime Faria

6-3 7-5#4Ben Shelton

6-3 6-4#97Adam Walton

6-1 7-5#92Chak Lam Coleman Wong

Gabriel Debru

11W 4L

6-3 6-2#588Erik Arutiunian

1-6 6-3 6-4#696Alex Rybakov

2-6 6-2 6-2#208Braden Shick

6-3 2-6 10-8#888Micah Braswell

6-4 6-4—Zachary Fuchs

3-6 7-5 6-4#490Constantin Bittoun Kouzmine

6-4 6-2#583Paul Inchauspe

4-6 7-6(5) 6-3#475Koki Matsuda

6-4 3-6 6-2#293Florent Bax

4-6 6-2 6-2#464Adrian Boitan

6-2 6-3#182Alexis Galarneau

6-3 6-3#114Gustavo Heide

7-6(6) 6-4#899Renzo Olivo

6-2 3-6 7-5#447Carlos Taberner

6-4 5-7 6-0#369Juan Pablo Ficovich

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

JBJenson BrooksbyBrooksby

Last 15

5–3

9 core stats · 1 even

Gabriel DebruDebruGD

Jenson Brooksby carries the stronger recent form — Gabriel Debru's route runs through return.

Serve · 4–1

1st Serve In15/15 · 14/1568.4%+4.0pp64.4%

1st Serve Won15/15 · 14/1570.2%+1.5pp68.7%

2nd Serve Won15/15 · 14/1552.3%+2.8pp49.5%

Aces / Match15/15 · 14/153.5+0.43.9

Double Faults / Match15/15 · 14/151.22.6 fewer3.8

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won15/15 · 14/1538.5%+3.3pp41.8%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted15/15 · 14/1544.3%+2.6pp46.9%

Break Pts Saved15/15 · 14/1562.4%+5.7pp56.7%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

Total Pts Won15/15 · 14/1551.2%—51.8%

Serve · 4–1

68.4%1st Serve In15/15 · 14/15+4.0pp64.4%

70.2%1st Serve Won15/15 · 14/15+1.5pp68.7%

52.3%2nd Serve Won15/15 · 14/15+2.8pp49.5%

3.5Aces / Match15/15 · 14/15+0.43.9

1.2Double Faults / Match15/15 · 14/152.6 fewer3.8

Return · 0–1

38.5%Return Pts Won15/15 · 14/15+3.3pp41.8%

Pressure · 1–1

44.3%Break Pts Converted15/15 · 14/15+2.6pp46.9%

62.4%Break Pts Saved15/15 · 14/15+5.7pp56.7%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

51.2%Total Pts Won15/15 · 14/15—51.8%

Jenson Brooksby

Gabriel Debru

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Gabriel Debru

Gabriel Debru

Gabriel Debru 2-1

Result1 of 1 landed

Games1 of 3 landed

Sets1 of 3 landed

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Jenson Brooksby

Gabriel Debru

Stat Battle