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Predictions graded

Cameron Norrie #40United Kingdom1Daniil Medvedev #5Russia2

Sets 6-4 · 3-6 · 6-7Thu 29 Oct 2026, 12:30 Predictions gradedSecond RoundI.hard

Predictions4–640%

Edges4–357%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageDaniil Medvedev · 35 places

Cameron Norrie

United Kingdom

Age 30, left-handed and 188 cm. He reached career-high No. 8 on 12 September 2022, and the ITF lists hard as his preferred surface. A May 2026 rib issue was reported resolved by his June return.

Current ranking: #40
Peak ranking: #8 · 2022
Current age: 30
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Left handed
Height: 188 cm

Daniil Medvedev

Russia

Former world No. 1, with his career-high ranking reached in February 2022. His 2026 Dubai title was awarded by walkover after Tallon Griekspoor withdrew from the final; this was not a Medvedev fitness issue.

Current ranking: #5
Peak ranking: #1 · 2022
Current age: 30
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 198 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 28 Oct 2026, 22:06 · Europe/Bucharest

Medvedev has won five of six meetings and 12 of his last 14 hard-court matches, so he is the likely winner in Vienna — but 1.2 for him to win the match asks for more than that record justifies.

The worthwhile prices sit elsewhere: the match to go beyond 2.5 sets at 3, Medvedev to win 2-1 at 4.25, and Norrie to take the first or second set at 3.5.

Context

Medvedev has controlled this matchup without ever being pushed to a fifth set by Norrie outside that one loss.
The series record is the clearest single piece of evidence behind the favourite, and the 6-3 6-4 scoreline from September 2025 shows Medvedev can keep the games short against this opponent. Norrie's one win needed five sets, which fits his habit of extending matches rather than closing them quickly. The series says nothing about Medvedev's condition this week, only about how the matchup has leaned.
- 26 September 2025: Medvedev beat Norrie 6-3 6-4.
- 27 May 2025: Norrie won 7-5 6-3 4-6 1-6 7-5, his only victory in six meetings.
Medvedev's recent hard-court matches have been short, with only three of 13 going the distance.
That short average is the reason a straight-sets Medvedev win is the base case, and it also drags the game totals down. The counterweight is Norrie, who has gone to a deciding set in six of his 14 tracked matches and has won 11 of 14 second sets, so he is not a passive opponent once a match is underway. One retired match is excluded from Medvedev's sample.
- 29 September to 28 October 2026: 13 completed hard-court best-of-3 matches, scorelines of nine 2-0, three 2-1 and one 0-2.
- Average match length 2.23 sets and 21.3 games; one retired match excluded.
Norrie has been markedly stronger in second sets than first sets over this stretch.
A level first-set record next to a dominant second-set record points to a player who adjusts as a match goes on. Against Medvedev, who has won 10 of his 13 first sets, the opener is the harder ask and the second set the more plausible place for Norrie to make inroads. Four of his 14 matches ended 1-2 and two ended 2-1, a total-sets average of 2.43.
- 27 July to 27 October 2026: 14 hard-court best-of-3 matches, 11-3 in second sets, 5.79 games won to 3.57 lost.
- First sets 7-7 across the same 14 matches; total-sets average 2.43.
Norrie's latest completed match was his cleanest recent result, two days before this second round.
Arriving off a straight-set win over a top-25 opponent is a better marker than his 8-7 hard-court record suggests. The five defeats around it include losses to Benjamin Bonzi, ranked 100, and Dalibor Svrcina, ranked 119, which is why his form reads inconsistently. One result does not overturn the ranking gap, but it is a reason not to expect a one-sided match.
- 27 October 2026: Norrie beat Francisco Cerundolo, ranked 21, 6-4 6-1.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 4

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.20
The read
Medvedev is the higher-ranked, far more consistent hard-court player and has dominated this head-to-head, while Norrie has been losing to lower-ranked opponents.
- Medvedev 12-2 in 14 hard-court matches tracked; Norrie 8-7 in 15.
- Head-to-head 5-1 Medvedev, including 6-3 6-4 in their most recent meeting.
- Medvedev set1 record 10-3 and set2 11-2 across 13 hard-court best-of-3 matches.
- Norrie has lost to players ranked 100 and 119 in his recent hard-court run.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonDaniil MedvedevEstimated chance77%

Games2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.60
The read
Medvedev's matches have generally been short, and a straight-set result would land well under this line.
- Medvedev's average total games is 21.3 across 13 hard-court matches.
- Norrie's average is 23.1 across 14, but his six straight-set wins were short.
- Medvedev's three most recent wins came in 20, 29 and 20 games.
BetBugs · Total GameslostUnder 22.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' first sets average close to ten games, with tiebreaks not uncommon for Medvedev.
- Medvedev's set1 averages 10.38 total games.
- Norrie's set1 averages 9.79 total games.
- Medvedev has played three first-set tiebreaks in 13 matches.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.55
The read
Medvedev's wins in this window have generally come by four games or more, enough to cover this line.
- Medvedev's recent wins included game margins of +6, +7, +4 and +9.
- His matches average 21.3 games, with Norrie averaging fewer games won than lost overall.
- Norrie's games-won rate is 52.4% against 50.3% of total points won.
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostDaniil Medvedev -3.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Medvedev asserts himself in second sets and has had no second-set tiebreaks recently, pointing to a quicker set.
- Medvedev's set2 averages 8.85 total games with no tiebreaks in 13 matches.
- Medvedev wins 5.54 second-set games to 3.31 lost.
- Norrie's set2 averages 9.36 total games.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance57%

Sets1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Medvedev starts matches strongly and wins the opening set roughly three times in four.
- Medvedev has won set1 in 10 of 13 hard-court best-of-3 matches.
- Norrie's set1 record is 7-7.
- Medvedev averages 5.85 games won against 4.54 lost in the first set.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostDaniil MedvedevEstimated chance66%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Medvedev's second-set numbers are excellent, though he faces an opponent who is similarly strong there.
- Medvedev has won set2 in 11 of 13 hard-court matches.
- Norrie has lost set2 only three times in 14 matches.
- Medvedev averages 5.54 games won against 3.31 lost in the second set.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonDaniil MedvedevEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' recent records lean toward matches ending inside two sets rather than going the distance.
- Medvedev's average match is 2.23 sets over 13 hard-court matches.
- Nine of his 13 recent matches were straight-set finishes.
- Norrie has six 2-0 results in 14 tracked matches.
BetBugs · Total SetslostUnder 2.5Estimated chance57%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Most of both players' recent matches finished without a tiebreak, and Medvedev's margins are often clear.
- Medvedev played 10 of 13 recent matches without a tiebreak.
- Norrie played 10 of 14 without a tiebreak.
- Medvedev's average match is 21.3 games across 2.23 sets.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostNoEstimated chance67%

Head-to-Head

1-5 (6 meetings)

L6-3 6-4Cameron Norrie#40vDaniil Medvedev#5Sep 26, 2025

W7-5 6-3 4-6 1-6 7-5Cameron Norrie#40vDaniil Medvedev#5May 27, 2025

L6-4 6-2Cameron Norrie#40vDaniil Medvedev#5May 9, 2025

L7-5 6-1Cameron Norrie#40vDaniil Medvedev#5Mar 24, 2024

L7-5 6-0Cameron Norrie#40vDaniil Medvedev#5Aug 6, 2022

L6-3 6-1Cameron Norrie#40vDaniil Medvedev#5Oct 8, 2019

Daniil Medvedev dominates (6 meetings)6 total meetings

Previous match context available

Cameron Norrie

8W 7L

6-4 6-1#21Francisco Cerundolo

6-3 3-6 6-3#100Benjamin Bonzi

6-3 3-6 6-4#119Dalibor Svrcina

7-6(1) 6-4#2Alexander Zverev

6-7(6) 6-2 6-2 6-3#48Luca Van Assche

3-6 6-3 6-3#2Alexander Zverev

3-6 6-1 6-4#95Dino Prizmic

6-2 7-6(8)#10Arthur Fils

5-7 7-6(5) 6-1#8Alex De Minaur

6-3 6-3#33Ignacio Buse

7-6(5) 6-4#75Camilo Ugo Carabelli

6-3 5-7 6-4#47Denis Shapovalov

6-1 6-0#180Bernard Tomic

6-4 6-4#73James Duckworth

6-4 6-1#82Aleksandar Kovacevic

Daniil Medvedev

13W 2L

7-6(5) 6-1#42Daniel Merida Aguilar 6-7(6) 6-1 6-3#128Nikoloz Basilashvili 6-3 ret.#19Alexander Bublik 6-4 6-4#98Terence Atmane

6-2 6-1#109Sho Shimabukuro

6-3 6-4#11Rafael Jodar

6-3 1-6 6-3#15Tommy Paul

6-4 7-5#39Stefanos Tsitsipas

6-2 6-3#119Dalibor Svrcina

4-6 6-4 6-3#58Jan-Lennard Struff

7-5 5-3 def.#12Novak Djokovic

7-6(4) 6-3#21Francisco Cerundolo

6-4 6-3#58Jan-Lennard Struff

6-4 6-2#74Pablo Carreno-Busta

7-5 6-4#22Andrey Rublev

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

CNCameron NorrieNorrie

Last 15

2–6

9 core stats · 1 even

Daniil MedvedevMedvedevDM

Daniil Medvedev carries the stronger recent form — Cameron Norrie's route runs through pressure.

Serve · 1–3 · 1 even

1st Serve In61.1%+4.3pp65.4%

1st Serve Won68.3%+11.7pp80.0%

2nd Serve Won51.0%+1.6pp49.4%

Aces / Match3.5+7.210.7

Double Faults / Match2.9—2.9

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won39.3%+2.0pp41.3%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted42.9%+7.4pp35.5%

Break Pts Saved59.1%+13.0pp72.1%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won50.3%+4.2pp54.5%

Serve · 1–3 · 1 even

61.1%1st Serve In+4.3pp65.4%

68.3%1st Serve Won+11.7pp80.0%

51.0%2nd Serve Won+1.6pp49.4%

3.5Aces / Match+7.210.7

2.9Double Faults / Match—2.9

Return · 0–1

39.3%Return Pts Won+2.0pp41.3%

Pressure · 1–1

42.9%Break Pts Converted+7.4pp35.5%

59.1%Break Pts Saved+13.0pp72.1%

Points · 0–1

50.3%Total Pts Won+4.2pp54.5%

Cameron Norrie #40United Kingdom1Daniil Medvedev #5Russia2

Player Profiles

Cameron Norrie

Daniil Medvedev

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Over 2.5

Cameron Norrie

Cameron Norrie

Daniil Medvedev 2-1

Daniil Medvedev

Under 22.5

Daniil Medvedev -3.5

BetBugs probabilities

Result1 of 1 landed

Games2 of 4 landed

Sets1 of 3 landed

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Head-to-Head

Cameron Norrie

Daniil Medvedev

Stat Battle