ChinaNingbo - ChinaFinishedFeatured

Predictions graded

Hiroki Moriya #480Japan1Mert Alkaya #311Türkiye2

Sets 3-6 · 6-3 · 4-6Wed 28 Oct 2026, 05:30 Predictions gradedSecond RoundHard

Predictions4–544%

Edges1–233%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageMert Alkaya · 169 places

Hiroki Moriya

Japan

Moriya, 35, is a right-hander whose preferred surface is hard. His career-high singles ranking was No. 143 in January 2015.

Current ranking: #480
Peak ranking: #143 · 2015
Current age: 35
Preferred surface: Carpet
Hand: Right handed
Height: 168 cm

Mert Alkaya

Türkiye

ITF lists Alkaya as 26. Recent ranking sources place his career high around No. 298; no reliable preferred-surface or physical-profile detail was confirmed in the requested searches.

Current ranking: #311
Peak ranking: #298
Current age: 26
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: —
Height: —

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 27 Oct 2026, 15:25 · Europe/Bucharest

Two outsiders meet in the Ningbo second round, with Moriya arriving on three straight wins and Alkaya holding a 169-place ranking edge plus the bigger serve.

Moriya's slightly better points and games won across 15 hard-court matches each make him a narrow favourite in a match that should stay close. Moriya at 2.3 to win, 2.2 for the first set and 2.2 for the second all represent value; Alkaya's short prices do not.

Context

Alkaya lands only 54.6% of first serves, so much of that production comes when the serve finds the box.
The serve is the part of Alkaya's game that stands apart from a 49.7% games-won record: he collects free points and wins most points when the first delivery lands. The trade-off is the low first-serve rate, which leaves more second serves for Moriya to attack. The sample is 13 matches with serve data inside a 15-match hard-court window from 6 August to 26 October 2026.
- Alkaya averaged 6.6 aces per match across 13 matches with serve data, totalling 86 aces.
- He won 69.8% of first-serve points (331 of 474) but landed only 54.6% of first serves (474 of 868).
- Window: 6 August to 26 October 2026, 15 hard-court matches tracked.
Moriya had dropped just one set across his two previous wins before this three-setter.
The scoreline shows a tight contest rather than a comfortable one: Moriya lost the second set 2-6 and needed a tiebreak to close the match. That alone says nothing about how he will start against Alkaya, but it is a reminder that his recent wins have not all been smooth.
- 27 October 2026: Moriya beat James McCabe (ranked 255) 2-1, winning 15 games to 13.
- Set scores were 6-1, 2-6, 7-6.
Second sets are where Moriya's game margin is widest, though the three tiebreaks show they have also been close. The question for this match is whether a margin of about two-thirds of a game per set holds against an opponent ranked 169 places above him. The sample covers 30 August to 27 October 2026.
- Moriya's second sets: 9 wins, 6 losses across 15 hard-court matches, 30 August to 27 October 2026.
- He averaged 5.33 games won and 4.67 games lost in second sets, with 3 tiebreaks.
- His overall games-won rate in the sample is 53.1% (178 of 335).

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.30
The read
Moriya's slightly better points and games won give him a narrow edge in a close matchup.
- Moriya is 9-6 on hard over his last 15 matches.
- Moriya has won 52.0% of total points and 53.1% of games in that span.
- Alkaya is ranked 311, but has won only 49.7% of games over his last 15.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostHiroki MoriyaEstimated chance53%

Games2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The first-set averages sit just below the line, favouring a shorter opening set.
- Combined first-set average is 8.90 games.
- Moriya averages 4.67 games won and 4.20 lost in first sets.
- Alkaya averages 4.47 games won and 4.47 lost in first sets.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second sets run slightly longer, and Moriya's average sits right at 10 games.
- Moriya's second sets average 10.0 total games.
- Alkaya's second sets average 9.27 total games.
- Moriya has three second-set tiebreaks in 15 matches.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Moriya's longer matches and a competitive scoreline point slightly above the line.
- Moriya's matches average 22.33 total games.
- Alkaya's matches average 19.87 total games.
- The combined set-two average is 9.63 games.
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance52%

Sets1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both records are full of straight-set results, making a two-set finish more likely.
- Moriya has six 2-0 wins and four 0-2 losses in 15 matches.
- Alkaya has six 2-0 wins and six 0-2 losses in 15 matches.
- Their combined average is 2.27 sets per match.
BetBugs · Total SetslostUnder 2.5Estimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.20
The read
Moriya's second-set record and game margin are stronger than Alkaya's.
- Moriya is 9-6 in second sets on hard courts.
- Moriya averages 5.33 second-set games won.
- Alkaya averages 4.53 second-set games won.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonHiroki MoriyaEstimated chance54%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.20
The read
Moriya's slightly better first-set record and overall points give him a small opening-set edge.
- Moriya is 8-7 in first sets on hard courts.
- Alkaya is 7-8 in first sets on hard courts.
- Moriya has won 52.0% of total points in the sample.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostHiroki MoriyaEstimated chance52%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Most completed matches for both players did not include a tiebreak.
- 22 of 30 combined matches had no tiebreak.
- Alkaya had only two tiebreak matches in 15.
- First-set tiebreaks are especially rare for both.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players stay under three double faults per match on average.
- Moriya averages 2.9 double faults per match.
- Alkaya averages 2.2 double faults per match.
- Their combined average is 5.1 double faults per match.
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableUnder 5.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Alkaya's serve lifts the ace count right around the line.
- Alkaya averages 6.6 aces per match.
- Moriya averages 3.0 aces per match.
- Their combined average is 9.6 aces per match.
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 9.5Estimated chance53%

Prediction history

Hiroki Moriya: 1/4 recent winner projections matched

1 of 4 comparable winner projections favouring Hiroki Moriya matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Hiroki Moriya4 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

7 Jul·Newport - USA

#856Jason Jung2-0#472Hiroki Moriya

BetBugsHiroki Moriya to win·58%

Missed

7 Jul 2026

Newport - USA

#856Jason Jung2-0#472Hiroki Moriya

Hiroki Moriya to win

58%probability

Jason Jung won

Missed

26 May·Little Rock - USA

#417Hiroki Moriya0-2#771Timo Legout

BetBugsHiroki Moriya to win·65%

Missed

26 May 2026

Little Rock - USA

#417Hiroki Moriya0-2#771Timo Legout

Hiroki Moriya to win

65%probability

Timo Legout won

Missed

25 May·Little Rock - USA

#416Hiroki Moriya0-2#1391Ronald Hohmann

BetBugsHiroki Moriya to win·65%

Missed

25 May 2026

Little Rock - USA

#416Hiroki Moriya0-2#1391Ronald Hohmann

Hiroki Moriya to win

65%probability

Ronald Hohmann won

Missed

3 May·Wuxi - China

#493Pietro Orlando Fellin1-2#429Hiroki Moriya

BetBugsHiroki Moriya to win·58%

Matched

3 May 2026

Wuxi - China

#493Pietro Orlando Fellin1-2#429Hiroki Moriya

Hiroki Moriya to win

58%probability

Hiroki Moriya won

Matched

Previous match context available

Hiroki Moriya

9W 6L

6-1 2-6 7-6(1)#255James McCabe 7-6(2) 6-2#609Timofei Derepasko 6-4 6-4#746Taisei Ichikawa

6-2 6-3#388Omar Jasika

6-2 6-3#478Keisuke Saitoh

3-6 7-6(5) 6-3#196Keegan Smith

6-4 6-4#388Omar Jasika

6-0 6-4—Jilong Huang

6-4 5-7 6-3#445Blake Ellis

5-7 7-5 7-6(3)#376Yuta Shimizu

6-3 7-6(4)#488Maximus Jones

4-6 6-1 6-2#620Dominik Palan

6-1 7-6(2)#382Kasidit Samrej

6-1 6-1#686S D Prajwal Dev

6-1 6-3#851Grigoriy Lomakin

Mert Alkaya

8W 7L

7-6(3) 6-4#734Rigele Te

6-4 3-6 6-1#203Andre Ilagan

6-2 6-1#250Matthew Dellavedova

2-6 6-3 6-4#537Nino Ehrenschneider

6-3 6-4—Yan Cheng Chen

6-0 6-1#971Ko Suzuki

6-1 7-5#613Isaac Becroft

6-1 6-0#21Francisco Cerundolo

6-2 6-4#50Thiago Agustin Tirante

6-4 7-5#256Max Basing

6-3 4-6 6-2#377Tiago Torres

7-6(5) 6-3#431Khumoun Sultanov

6-3 6-4#528Beibit Zhukayev

6-2 6-4#671Sidharth Rawat

6-3 6-2#441Kenta Miyoshi

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

HMHiroki MoriyaMoriya

Last 15

3–5

9 core stats · 1 even

Mert AlkayaAlkayaMA

Mert Alkaya carries the stronger recent form — Hiroki Moriya's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–3

1st Serve In15/15 · 13/1562.1%+7.5pp54.6%

1st Serve Won15/15 · 13/1568.4%+1.4pp69.8%

2nd Serve Won15/15 · 13/1555.3%+3.0pp52.3%

Aces / Match15/15 · 13/153.0+3.66.6

Double Faults / Match15/15 · 13/152.90.7 fewer2.2

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won15/15 · 13/1541.1%+0.9pp40.2%

Pressure · 0–2

Break Pts Converted15/15 · 13/1543.2%+6.8pp50.0%

Break Pts Saved15/15 · 13/1558.6%+2.6pp61.2%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

Total Pts Won15/15 · 13/1552.0%—51.5%

Serve · 2–3

62.1%1st Serve In15/15 · 13/15+7.5pp54.6%

68.4%1st Serve Won15/15 · 13/15+1.4pp69.8%

55.3%2nd Serve Won15/15 · 13/15+3.0pp52.3%

3.0Aces / Match15/15 · 13/15+3.66.6

2.9Double Faults / Match15/15 · 13/150.7 fewer2.2

Return · 1–0

41.1%Return Pts Won15/15 · 13/15+0.9pp40.2%

Pressure · 0–2

43.2%Break Pts Converted15/15 · 13/15+6.8pp50.0%

58.6%Break Pts Saved15/15 · 13/15+2.6pp61.2%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

52.0%Total Pts Won15/15 · 13/15—51.5%