Hiroki Moriya #417Japan00 – 2Timo Legout #771France2

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Recent match lengths for both players trend toward shorter matches, and Moriya's dominant qualifying performance suggests a potential straight-set win with few games.

• Moriya's last 5 matches have averaged 19.6 total games, with 3 of 5 finishing under 21.5 games.
• Legout's last 5 matches have averaged 20.4 total games, with 3 of 5 finishing under 21.5 games.
• Both players have relatively low service hold percentages (Moriya 66% first serve, Legout 65%), which could lead to breaks, but their recent matches have been quick.
• Moriya's qualifying match was a quick 6-3, 6-1 win, and Legout's last match was a 6-3, 6-1 loss.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Recent first-set scores for both players indicate a tendency for sets to end with 9 or fewer games, often with a 6-3 or 6-2 scoreline.

• Moriya's last 5 first sets have averaged 9.2 games, with 3 of 5 finishing under 9.5 games.
• Legout's last 5 first sets have averaged 9.4 games, with 3 of 5 finishing under 9.5 games.
• Moriya won his last first set 6-3, and Legout lost his last first set 6-3.
• Both players have moderate first-serve percentages (Moriya 59%, Legout 63%), which could lead to breaks and a shorter set.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced

The read

Second sets in recent matches for both players have been short, often ending 6-1 or 6-2, suggesting another under 9.5 games is likely.

• Moriya's last 5 second sets have averaged 8.8 games, with 4 of 5 finishing under 9.5 games.
• Legout's last 5 second sets have averaged 8.6 games, with 4 of 5 finishing under 9.5 games.
• Moriya's most recent second set was 6-1, and Legout's was 6-1.
• If Moriya wins the first set, Legout's resistance may fade, leading to a quick second set.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Both players have low ace rates and rely more on rallying, making a combined ace total under 5.5 highly probable.

• Moriya's ace rate is 3.4% and Legout's is 2.4%, both below average for hard courts.
• Moriya averages about 2.5 aces per match based on his career stats (1925 aces in 1089 matches).
• Legout averages about 1.6 aces per match based on his career stats (289 aces in 183 matches).
• In their recent matches, neither player has shown a high ace count; Moriya's last match had no ace data but his style is not ace-dependent.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Given the expected dominance by Moriya and the low frequency of tiebreaks in both players' recent matches, a tiebreak is unlikely.

• Moriya's recent matches have featured tiebreaks in only 2 of his last 15 matches.
• Legout's recent matches have featured tiebreaks in 3 of his last 15 matches.
• Moriya's career tiebreak win percentage is 52%, and Legout's is 53%, but neither player frequently goes to tiebreaks.
• The expected straight-set outcome reduces the likelihood of a tiebreak, as tiebreaks often occur in closer matches.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Both players have above-average double fault rates, and over a full match, the total is likely to surpass 5.5.

• Moriya's double fault rate is 4.3% and Legout's is 4.6%, both relatively high.
• Moriya averages about 2.2 double faults per match (2444 in 1089 matches), and Legout averages about 3.0 (552 in 183 matches).
• In a best-of-3 match, combined double faults could easily exceed 5.5 if both players serve at their career rates.
• Recent match data is not available for double faults, but their career rates suggest a consistent pattern.