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Predictions graded

James McCabe #255Australia1Hiroki Moriya #480Japan2

Sets 1-6 · 6-2 · 6-7Tue 27 Oct 2026, 04:30 Predictions gradedFirst RoundHard

Predictions2–529%

Edges1–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageJames McCabe · 225 places

James McCabe

Australia

McCabe reached a career-high ATP singles ranking of No. 164 on 14 July 2025. The ITF lists grass and carpet as his preferred surfaces.

Current ranking: #255
Peak ranking: #164 · 2025
Current age: 23
Preferred surface: I.hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 188 cm

Hiroki Moriya

Japan

Moriya, 35, is a right-hander whose preferred surface is hard. His career-high singles ranking was No. 143 in January 2015.

Current ranking: #480
Peak ranking: #143 · 2015
Current age: 35
Preferred surface: Carpet
Hand: Right handed
Height: 168 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 26 Oct 2026, 15:19 · Europe/Bucharest

Moriya, ranked 480, has been the far more competitive hard-court player than 255th-ranked McCabe, who has two wins in his last 11 hard matches.

Moriya looks the likelier winner of this Ningbo first round, though his recent wins came against much lower-ranked opponents. At 2.6 he is the one quoted price worth taking; McCabe at 1.44 asks far more than his form supports.

Context

The sample is small but consistent: McCabe has rarely found a way through a hard-court week, and when he has lost he has often done so without reaching a deciding set. That pattern puts the pressure on his serve and return early in this first round, because a slow start has tended to be costly for him.
- 11 completed hard-court matches tracked from 14 July 2026 to 21 October 2026, record 2-9
- Scorelines: five 0-2 defeats, one 2-0 win, four 1-2 defeats, one 2-1 win
- Total games average 26.18 across those 11 matches
Two clean wins in two days give Moriya rhythm and a settled serving week heading into Ningbo, and his first set against Derepasko showed he can close out a tight tiebreak. The caveat is the opposition: Derepasko was ranked 609 and Ichikawa 746, so these results show sharpness rather than proof he handles a higher-ranked opponent.
- 26 October 2026: beat Timofei Derepasko (ranked 609) 7-6, 6-2, 13 games to 8
- 25 October 2026: beat Taisei Ichikawa (ranked 746) 6-4, 6-4, 12 games to 8
- Both matches completed on hard courts, no retirement
McCabe's sets have repeatedly gone to 6-6, which raises the chance that at least one set here is decided by a tiebreak even though Moriya's recent matches have mostly been closed out earlier. Three of McCabe's 11 matches were decided in the first set by a tiebreak, so the margins in his matches tend to be narrow rather than one-sided.
- McCabe: 8 of 11 hard-court matches contained a tiebreak, 14 July to 21 October 2026
- McCabe: three first-set tiebreaks and five second-set tiebreaks in the same 11 matches
- Moriya: 5 of 15 hard-court matches contained a tiebreak, 21 August to 26 October 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 2.60
The read
Moriya has been the far more competitive player on hard courts over a larger sample, while McCabe has won twice in eleven hard-court matches.
- Moriya 8-8 wins-losses in 15 hard-court matches this window; McCabe 2-9 on hard (11 matches)
- Moriya 51.4% total points won and 51.7% games won across 15 hard matches
- McCabe 2-12 overall last 15 and lost five of his last six completed matches
- Moriya won his two most recent completed matches in straight sets
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonHiroki MoriyaEstimated chance65%

Games0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' second sets average more games than first sets, and tiebreaks are common in that set.
- Moriya averages 10.0 total games in second sets
- McCabe averages 11.18 total games in second sets
- Three of Moriya's fifteen second sets went to a tiebreak
- Five of McCabe's eleven matches contained a tiebreak
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance57%

Sets1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Moriya has been notably better in second sets, while McCabe's second-set record is his weakest split.
- Moriya set2 record 9-6 on hard, the stronger of his two sets
- McCabe set2 record 3-8
- Moriya averages 5.33 games won v 4.67 lost in second sets
- McCabe averages 5.09 won v 6.09 lost in second sets
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerlostHiroki MoriyaEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both first-set records are close to level, but Moriya's slightly better balance and stronger overall form tilt the opening set his way.
- Moriya set1 record 7-8 on hard this window
- McCabe set1 record 4-7 on hard
- Moriya averages 4.4 games won and 4.53 lost in first sets
- McCabe loses first sets more often than he wins them
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonHiroki MoriyaEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Straight-set finishes are the most common outcome in both players' recent records, especially for Moriya.
- Moriya won six of fifteen matches 2-0 and lost five 0-2
- Eleven of Moriya's fifteen matches finished in straight sets
- McCabe's eleven hard matches produced six straight-set finishes
BetBugs · Total SetslostUnder 2.5Estimated chance52%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Moriya's recent matches have generally been closed out without reaching 6-6 in a set.
- Only five of Moriya's fifteen hard-court matches had a tiebreak
- Moriya's last two wins were decided without a tiebreak
- McCabe has had a tiebreak in eight of eleven matches
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostNoEstimated chance55%

Prediction history

Hiroki Moriya: 1/4 recent winner projections matched

1 of 4 comparable winner projections favouring Hiroki Moriya matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Hiroki Moriya4 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

7 Jul·Newport - USA

#856Jason Jung2-0#472Hiroki Moriya

BetBugsHiroki Moriya to win·58%

Missed

7 Jul 2026

Newport - USA

#856Jason Jung2-0#472Hiroki Moriya

Hiroki Moriya to win

58%probability

Jason Jung won

Missed

26 May·Little Rock - USA

#417Hiroki Moriya0-2#771Timo Legout

BetBugsHiroki Moriya to win·65%

Missed

26 May 2026

Little Rock - USA

#417Hiroki Moriya0-2#771Timo Legout

Hiroki Moriya to win

65%probability

Timo Legout won

Missed

25 May·Little Rock - USA

#416Hiroki Moriya0-2#1391Ronald Hohmann

BetBugsHiroki Moriya to win·65%

Missed

25 May 2026

Little Rock - USA

#416Hiroki Moriya0-2#1391Ronald Hohmann

Hiroki Moriya to win

65%probability

Ronald Hohmann won

Missed

3 May·Wuxi - China

#493Pietro Orlando Fellin1-2#429Hiroki Moriya

BetBugsHiroki Moriya to win·58%

Matched

3 May 2026

Wuxi - China

#493Pietro Orlando Fellin1-2#429Hiroki Moriya

Hiroki Moriya to win

58%probability

Hiroki Moriya won

Matched

Previous match context available

James McCabe

3W 12L

4-6 7-6(1) 6-4#272Jay Dylan Hara Friend

6-0 6-7(2) 7-6(6)#228Elias Ymer

6-3 6-4#242Hayato Matsuoka

6-0 3-1 ret.—Siddhant Banthia

6-2 6-3#135Federico Cina

6-1 6-4#168Lukas Neumayer

4-6 6-3 7-6(2)#766Noah Zamora

6-3 6-7(5) 6-3#162Dusan Lajovic

7-6(6) 7-6(2)#174Alex Bolt

7-6(5) 4-6 7-5#472Duncan Chan

7-6(2) 6-4#180Bernard Tomic

6-4 7-6(6)#427Masamichi Imamura

6-4 6-3#899Jason Jung

6-3 7-6(4)#70Roman Safiullin

7-6(3) 6-4#219Remy Bertola

Hiroki Moriya

8W 7L

7-6(2) 6-2#609Timofei Derepasko 6-4 6-4#746Taisei Ichikawa

6-2 6-3#388Omar Jasika

6-2 6-3#478Keisuke Saitoh

3-6 7-6(5) 6-3#196Keegan Smith

6-4 6-4#388Omar Jasika

6-0 6-4—Jilong Huang

6-4 5-7 6-3#445Blake Ellis

5-7 7-5 7-6(3)#376Yuta Shimizu

6-3 7-6(4)#488Maximus Jones

4-6 6-1 6-2#620Dominik Palan

6-1 7-6(2)#382Kasidit Samrej

6-1 6-1#686S D Prajwal Dev

6-1 6-3#851Grigoriy Lomakin

6-2 6-2#353Tung-Lin Wu

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

JMJames McCabeMcCabe

Last 15

3–6

9 core stats · 0 even

Hiroki MoriyaMoriyaHM

Hiroki Moriya carries the stronger recent form — James McCabe's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–3

1st Serve In60.2%+0.9pp61.1%

1st Serve Won72.2%+4.7pp67.5%

2nd Serve Won47.5%+7.7pp55.2%

Aces / Match6.4+3.33.1

Double Faults / Match3.00.3 fewer2.7

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won29.4%+11.4pp40.8%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted36.9%+5.2pp42.1%

Break Pts Saved63.9%+5.5pp58.4%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won46.9%+4.5pp51.4%

Serve · 2–3

60.2%1st Serve In+0.9pp61.1%

72.2%1st Serve Won+4.7pp67.5%

47.5%2nd Serve Won+7.7pp55.2%

6.4Aces / Match+3.33.1

3.0Double Faults / Match0.3 fewer2.7

Return · 0–1

29.4%Return Pts Won+11.4pp40.8%

Pressure · 1–1

36.9%Break Pts Converted+5.2pp42.1%

63.9%Break Pts Saved+5.5pp58.4%

Points · 0–1

46.9%Total Pts Won+4.5pp51.4%