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Predictions graded

Hiroki Moriya #480Japan2Timofei Derepasko #609Russia0

Sets 7-6 · 6-2Mon 26 Oct 2026, 05:00 Predictions gradedQ3Hard

Predictions5–456%

Edges1–150%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageHiroki Moriya · 129 places

Hiroki Moriya

Japan

Moriya, 35, is a right-hander whose preferred surface is hard. His career-high singles ranking was No. 143 in January 2015.

Current ranking: #480
Peak ranking: #143 · 2015
Current age: 35
Preferred surface: Carpet
Hand: Right handed
Height: 168 cm

Timofei Derepasko

Russia

Derepasko, 19, is the right-hander in this matchup. His highest ranking, No. 634, came in June 2026.

Current ranking: #609
Peak ranking: #634 · 2026
Current age: 19
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 188 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 25 Oct 2026, 22:22 · Europe/Bucharest

Two qualifiers with identical 8-7 hard-court samples meet for a place in the Ningbo main draw.

Moriya's return and second serve make him the narrow favourite, but Derepasko's serving and first-set record keep it close. The one price that stands out is Derepasko at 2.9; Moriya at 1.36 to win and 1.44 for the second set require more than his form justifies.

Context

The 6-4, 6-4 result over Ichikawa is Moriya's immediate route into this meeting. It establishes current-event participation in Ningbo before facing Derepasko. The result is useful fixture context, but it is not availability evidence or a standalone indication of a broader change in form.
- Moriya defeated Ichikawa 6-4, 6-4 in Ningbo qualifying .
ReportedSources checked 25 Oct 2026, 22:20 · Europe/BucharestMoriya beats Ichikawa in Ningbo qualifying openeren.tennistemple.com · 25 Oct 2026
Derepasko's 6-4, 6-2 win over Xiaoyin Yang put him into the qualifying meeting with Moriya. It provides the immediate tournament route for this fixture and confirms that he has already competed at the venue. The score alone does not establish a wider form trend or an active physical issue.
- Derepasko defeated Xiaoyin Yang 6-4, 6-2 in Ningbo qualifying .
ReportedSources checked 25 Oct 2026, 22:20 · Europe/BucharestDerepasko also advances in Ningbo qualifyingen.tennistemple.com · 25 Oct 2026
Moriya's recent hard-court results have been compact rather than drawn out.
The 15-match sample splits into six 2-0 wins, five 0-2 defeats, two 2-1 wins and one 1-2 loss, so only three matches went the distance. He has won 52.9% of sets and 52.2% of games in that window, which fits a player whose matches tend to resolve without long detours. Derepasko's sample is even more two-set heavy, so the evidence points toward compact sets rather than a grind.
- Set scorelines across 15 hard-court matches: six 2-0 wins, five 0-2 losses, two 2-1 wins, one 1-2 loss.
- Average 2.27 sets and 21.2 games per match in the sample.
- Sample window 20 August to 25 October 2026, retirements excluded.
Derepasko's set-by-set split shows a fast start followed by a harder second set.
Across 13 hard-court matches from 7 to 25 October, his opening sets produced a 5.08 to 4.46 game edge, while the second set flipped to 4.54 won against 5.08 lost. Three of those matches needed a set-two tiebreak. That makes the opening set his likeliest route to a foothold against Moriya, and it also marks where his matches have tended to tighten.
- First sets: 8-5, averaging 5.08 games won and 4.46 lost across 13 hard-court matches.
- Second sets: 7-6, averaging 4.54 games won and 5.08 lost.
- Three set-two tiebreaks in the sample; window 7 to 25 October 2026.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Set 2 WinnerwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Hiroki Moriya

1.44fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 69.4%

−14.4ppshort

Moriya's second-set record is clearly better, and his return game can pressure Derepasko.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Moriya's stronger second-serve and return numbers give him a narrow overall advantage in a close qualifier.
- Moriya has won 51.5% of total points on hard, Derepasko 49.6%.
- Hard-court games won: Moriya 52.2%, Derepasko 50.6%.
- Second-serve points won: Moriya 55.1%, Derepasko 46.9%.
- Ranking: Moriya 480, Derepasko 609.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonHiroki MoriyaEstimated chance54%

Games1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
First sets in these samples have generally stayed below the line.
- Moriya set1 average total games is 8.7.
- Derepasko set1 average total games is 9.5.
- No set1 tiebreaks in 28 combined hard-court matches.
- Moriya set1 games won/lost are 4.33/4.33.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostUnder 9.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second sets have been slightly longer and feature more tiebreaks, making over a modest pick.
- Moriya set2 average total games is 9.9.
- Derepasko set2 average total games is 9.6.
- Each player has three set2 tiebreaks in the sample.
- Moriya set2 games won average is 5.33.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined game average sits close to the line, with enough tight sets to make over slightly more likely.
- Moriya average total games is 21.2.
- Derepasko average total games is 19.9.
- Combined average is close to the 20.5 line.
- Set2 averages are 9.9 and 9.6 games.
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 20.5Estimated chance52%

Sets2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' hard-court matches have mostly finished in two sets.
- Moriya has 11 straight-set matches in 15 on hard.
- Derepasko has 12 straight-set matches in 13 on hard.
- Average sets: Moriya 2.27, Derepasko 2.08.
- SetBetting straight-set outcomes sum to 65%.
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.44
The read
Moriya's second-set record is clearly better, and his return game can pressure Derepasko.
- Moriya has won 9 of 15 second sets on hard.
- Derepasko has lost 6 of 13 second sets on hard.
- Moriya set2 games won average 5.33 vs 4.60 lost.
- Moriya second-serve points won 55.1%.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonHiroki MoriyaEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Derepasko's first-set record and serve numbers make him a slight favorite for the opening set.
- Derepasko has won 8 of 13 first sets on hard.
- Derepasko set1 games won average 5.08 vs 4.46 lost.
- Derepasko first-serve points won 70.3%.
- Derepasko averages 5.0 aces per match.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostTimofei DerepaskoEstimated chance51%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Most of these players' recent hard-court matches have not included a tiebreak.
- Moriya has 11 matches without a tiebreak in 15.
- Derepasko has 10 matches without a tiebreak in 13.
- Set1 tiebreaks are 0 in both samples.
- Combined tiebreak rate is about 25%.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostNoEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' double-fault rates point to a total below the line.
- Moriya averages 2.9 double faults per match.
- Derepasko averages 3.3 double faults per match.
- Combined average is 6.2.
- Current hard-court combined average is about 6.3.
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableUnder 6.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Derepasko's serve gives the match enough ace potential to clear the line slightly more often than not.
- Derepasko averages 5.0 aces per match.
- Moriya averages 2.9 aces per match.
- Combined average is 7.9 aces.
- Derepasko averages 5.2 aces on current hard courts.
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 7.5Estimated chance53%

Previous match context available

Hiroki Moriya

8W 7L

6-4 6-4#746Taisei Ichikawa

6-2 6-3#388Omar Jasika

6-2 6-3#478Keisuke Saitoh

3-6 7-6(5) 6-3#196Keegan Smith

6-4 6-4#388Omar Jasika

6-0 6-4—Jilong Huang

6-4 5-7 6-3#445Blake Ellis

5-7 7-5 7-6(3)#376Yuta Shimizu

6-3 7-6(4)#488Maximus Jones

4-6 6-1 6-2#620Dominik Palan

6-1 7-6(2)#382Kasidit Samrej

6-1 6-1#686S D Prajwal Dev

6-1 6-3#851Grigoriy Lomakin

6-2 6-2#353Tung-Lin Wu

6-3 6-1#795Kousuke Ogura

Timofei Derepasko

8W 7L

6-4 6-2—Xiaoyin Yang

6-2 6-2#817Linang Xiao

7-5 7-6(3)#880Kristjan Tamm

6-4 6-1#613Isaac Becroft

6-3 6-2#388Omar Jasika

6-3 7-6(10)#641Filip Peliwo

6-2 7-6(4)#294Sergey Fomin

6-3 6-2—Matic Dimic

2-6 7-6(2) 6-4#846Francesco Ferrari

6-4 6-3#143Ilia Simakin

7-5 6-3#746Taisei Ichikawa

6-3 6-3—Stefan Storch

6-3 6-2#324Cruz Hewitt

6-3 4-6 6-4#815Sam Ryan Ziegann

6-3 6-4#826Taiyo Yamanaka

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

HMHiroki MoriyaMoriya

Last 15

6–2

9 core stats · 1 even

Timofei DerepaskoDerepaskoTD

Hiroki Moriya carries the stronger recent form — Timofei Derepasko's route runs through serve.

Serve · 3–2

1st Serve In60.9%+5.9pp55.0%

1st Serve Won68.1%+2.2pp70.3%

2nd Serve Won55.1%+8.2pp46.9%

Aces / Match2.9+2.15.0

Double Faults / Match2.90.4 fewer3.3

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won40.7%+2.1pp38.6%

Pressure · 1–0 · 1 even

Break Pts Converted45.0%+4.4pp40.6%

Break Pts Saved60.2%—60.2%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won51.5%+1.9pp49.6%

Serve · 3–2

60.9%1st Serve In+5.9pp55.0%

68.1%1st Serve Won+2.2pp70.3%

55.1%2nd Serve Won+8.2pp46.9%

2.9Aces / Match+2.15.0

2.9Double Faults / Match0.4 fewer3.3

Return · 1–0

40.7%Return Pts Won+2.1pp38.6%

Pressure · 1–0 · 1 even

45.0%Break Pts Converted+4.4pp40.6%

60.2%Break Pts Saved—60.2%

Points · 1–0

51.5%Total Pts Won+1.9pp49.6%