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Predictions graded

Charles Broom #264United Kingdom2Akira Santillan #309Australia0

Sets 6-3 · 6-3Tue 27 Oct 2026, 03:00 Predictions gradedFirst RoundHard

Predictions7–278%

Edges4–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageCharles Broom · 45 places

Charles Broom

United Kingdom

Limited reliable public profile information found. Structured match data lists Broom at No. 289.

Current ranking: #264
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 178 cm

Akira Santillan

Australia

Santillan, 29, reached a career-high No. 144 in November 2017. ITF lists grass as his preferred surface.

Current ranking: #309
Peak ranking: #144 · 2017
Current age: 29
Preferred surface: I.hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 180 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 25 Oct 2026, 14:44 · Europe/Bucharest

Broom owns the stronger hard-court record, but Santillan beat him 6-3, 6-2 in their only meeting and his latest recorded match is dated 23 October, against Broom's 6 October.

Broom still looks the likelier winner, probably in straight sets — 10 of his 15 hard-court wins were 2-0. The 2.2 for Broom to win 2-0 is the one worthwhile price; 1.55 for Broom in the match, first set or second set asks more than his form justifies.

Context

Santillan's serve numbers split sharply between a genuine first-serve weapon and a vulnerable second delivery.
Santillan's serve splits sharply: the first delivery produced 104 aces in 15 matches and won 71.7% of points, while the second won under half (150 of 310). Broom returns 40.4% of points in his own 15-match sample, so second serves are where he can gain a foothold. Santillan's holds will lean on first-serve percentage on the day, which no sample can predict.
- 15 hard-court matches tracked, 26 Aug–23 Oct 2026: 68.8% first serves in (685/995) and 71.7% first-serve points won (491/685).
- 104 aces across those 15 matches (6.9 per match).
- Second-serve points won: 150 of 310 (48.4%).
Broom has been notably quick out of the blocks across his recent hard-court sample.
The opening set has been Broom's most reliable stretch: 12 wins in 15 hard-court matches, averaging 5.67 games to 4.0 with no first-set tiebreak in the sample. Santillan won 7 of 15 first sets, so the edge is real rather than overwhelming. The caveat is direct — Santillan took the opening set 6-3 in their only meeting.
- 15 hard-court matches, 6 Aug–6 Oct 2026: first set won 12 times, lost 3.
- Average first set 5.67 games to 4.0, with no first-set tiebreaks in the sample.
This is a first-round Challenger meeting on Ningbo’s hard court on 27 October 2026. It establishes the event, stage and surface for the fixture. Both players face the same tournament setting, so the draw itself does not distinguish their playing conditions.
- The Ningbo draw pairs Broom with Santillan in the first round on 27 October 2026.
ConfirmedSources checked 25 Oct 2026, 14:42 · Europe/BucharestTennis Explorerwww.tennisexplorer.com · 25 Oct 2026
Santillan’s 6-3, 6-2 win in the 2026 Maanshan Futures semifinal is the only prior match between these players. It provides a direct reference point before their Ningbo meeting. That result came at a different event and level, so it does not establish their current conditions in Ningbo.
- Santillan defeated Broom 6-3, 6-2 in the Maanshan Futures semifinal in 2026.
ConfirmedSources checked 25 Oct 2026, 14:42 · Europe/BucharestTennis Templeen.tennistemple.com · 25 Oct 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 3

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Set 1 WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

Charles Broom

1.55fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 64.5%

−4.5ppshort

Broom's strong first-set record makes him the clear first-set pick, though Santillan took the opening set in their previous match.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

Charles Broom

1.55fair 1.72

BetBugs 58% · Market 64.5%

−6.5ppshort

Broom's stronger hard-court win rate, return and break-point defence make him the better match pick despite the head-to-head loss.

Set 2 WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

Charles Broom

1.55fair 1.72

BetBugs 58% · Market 64.5%

−6.5ppshort

Broom's second-set record is stronger than Santillan's, supporting him as the set-two favourite.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.55
The read
Broom's stronger hard-court win rate, return and break-point defence make him the better match pick despite the head-to-head loss.
- Broom is ranked 264; Santillan is 309.
- Broom is 11-4 on hard in his Last 15; Santillan is 7-8.
- Broom has won 58.7% of games and 53.2% of points on hard; Santillan 49.7% and 50.2%.
- Broom saves 74.4% of break points; Santillan 61.8%.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonCharles BroomEstimated chance58%

Games1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' first sets average close to ten games, making over 9.5 slightly more likely.
- Broom's first sets average 9.67 total games on hard.
- Santillan's first sets average 9.60 total games on hard.
- Broom had no first-set tiebreaks in 15 hard matches.
- Santillan had one first-set tiebreak in 15 hard matches.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The pair's second sets average under ten games, so under 9.5 is slightly favoured.
- Broom's second sets average 9.40 total games on hard.
- Santillan's second sets average 9.27 total games on hard.
- Broom won the second set in 12 of 15 hard matches.
- Santillan won the second set in 8 of 15 hard matches.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Santillan's matches are a little longer on average, pushing the total near or above 21.5.
- Broom's hard matches average 21.13 total games.
- Santillan's hard matches average 22.13 total games.
- Santillan has played three sets in 5 of 15 hard matches.
- Broom has played three sets in 4 of 15 hard matches.
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance51%

Sets3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Most of both players' recent hard-court matches ended in two sets.
- Broom won 2-0 in 10 of 15 hard matches.
- Santillan won 2-0 in 5 of 15 hard matches.
- Santillan lost 0-2 in 5 of 15 hard matches.
- Broom played three sets in only 4 of 15 hard matches.
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance74%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.55
The read
Broom's strong first-set record makes him the clear first-set pick, though Santillan took the opening set in their previous match.
- Broom won the first set in 12 of 15 hard matches.
- Santillan won the first set in 7 of 15 hard matches.
- Santillan won the first set 6-3 in their only meeting.
- Broom's first-set games average 5.67-4.0.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonCharles BroomEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.55
The read
Broom's second-set record is stronger than Santillan's, supporting him as the set-two favourite.
- Broom won the second set in 12 of 15 hard matches.
- Santillan won the second set in 8 of 15 hard matches.
- Broom's set-two games average 5.93-3.47.
- Santillan's set-two games average 4.87-4.40.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonCharles BroomEstimated chance58%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' recent hard-court matches usually finished without a tiebreak.
- Broom had a tiebreak in 2 of 15 hard matches.
- Santillan had a tiebreak in 3 of 15 hard matches.
- Their only previous meeting had no tiebreak.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance74%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' combined double-fault average is under 4.5.
- Combined average is 4.3 double faults per match.
- Broom averages 1.7 double faults per hard match.
- Santillan averages 2.6 double faults per hard match.
- Broom has 26 double faults in 15 hard matches.
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableUnder 4.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The pair's combined ace average is slightly under 11.5.
- Combined average is 11.2 aces per match.
- Broom averages 4.3 aces per hard match.
- Santillan averages 6.9 aces per hard match.
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableUnder 11.5Estimated chance53%

Previous match context available

Charles Broom

11W 4L

4-6 7-6(5) 6-4#361Alibek Kachmazov

6-2 6-7(5) 6-1#354Mathys Erhard

6-2 6-2—Hongjin Qi

7-5 6-3#450George Loffhagen

6-4 5-7 6-1#289Oliver Tarvet

6-4 6-2#256Max Basing

6-4 6-1#693Patrick Brady

6-4 6-1#528Leonardo Rossi

6-4 5-7 6-1#289Oliver Tarvet

7-5 6-3#696Alex Rybakov

6-1 6-1#641Filip Peliwo

6-3 6-2#289Oliver Tarvet

6-1 7-5#380Lui Maxted

6-4 6-0—Oscar Brown

7-5 6-4#740Nicolas Jadoun

Akira Santillan

7W 8L

6-4 6-3#448Jie Cui

6-4 6-4#233Liam Broady

4-6 6-4 6-3#614Yaroslav Demin

6-7(3) 6-1 6-4#478Keisuke Saitoh

6-3 6-3#614Yaroslav Demin

6-3 3-6 7-6(5)#449Luca Castelnuovo

6-2 6-4#207Luka Pavlovic

6-1 2-6 6-4#174Alex Bolt

6-3 6-0—Kaigaoge Kang

6-4 7-6(4)#172Pavel Kotov

7-5 6-3#893Yaojie Zeng

6-4 6-4#180Bernard Tomic

6-4 4-6 6-1#221Ilya Ivashka

6-2 6-3#388Omar Jasika

6-3 6-4#619Sanhui Shin

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

CBCharles BroomBroom

Last 15

6–2

9 core stats · 1 even

Akira SantillanSantillanAS

Charles Broom carries the stronger recent form — Akira Santillan's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

1st Serve In62.5%+6.3pp68.8%

1st Serve Won71.3%—71.7%

2nd Serve Won56.5%+8.1pp48.4%

Aces / Match4.3+2.66.9

Double Faults / Match1.70.9 fewer2.6

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won40.4%+4.5pp35.9%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted49.0%+8.7pp40.3%

Break Pts Saved74.4%+12.6pp61.8%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won53.2%+3.0pp50.2%

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

62.5%1st Serve In+6.3pp68.8%

71.3%1st Serve Won—71.7%

56.5%2nd Serve Won+8.1pp48.4%

4.3Aces / Match+2.66.9

1.7Double Faults / Match0.9 fewer2.6

Return · 1–0

40.4%Return Pts Won+4.5pp35.9%

Pressure · 2–0

49.0%Break Pts Converted+8.7pp40.3%

74.4%Break Pts Saved+12.6pp61.8%

Points · 1–0

53.2%Total Pts Won+3.0pp50.2%

Charles Broom

Akira Santillan

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Charles Broom 2-0

Charles Broom

Charles Broom

Charles Broom

Result1 of 1 landed

Games1 of 3 landed

Sets3 of 3 landed

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Charles Broom

Akira Santillan

Stat Battle