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Predictions graded

Sara Bejlek #32Czechia0Marie Bouzkova #26Czechia2

Sets 3-6 · 4-6Fri 23 Oct 2026, 05:05 Predictions gradedQuarter-FinalHard

Predictions5–363%

Edges2–340%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageMarie Bouzkova · 6 places

Sara Bejlek

Czechia

Czech left-hander born January 31, 2006. She reached a career-high No. 34 in April 2026 and won her first WTA singles title from qualifying in Abu Dhabi earlier that season.

Current ranking: #32
Peak ranking: #34 · 2026
Current age: 20
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Left handed
Height: —

Marie Bouzkova

Czechia

Right-handed and 1.80m, Bouzkova reached career-high No. 21 in July 2026. Her official profile records 2026 titles in Bogota and Nottingham but does not publish a preferred surface.

Current ranking: #26
Peak ranking: #21 · 2026
Current age: 28
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 180 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 22 Oct 2026, 20:49 · Europe/Bucharest

Two Czechs meet for the first time with the last Ningbo semifinal place at stake, and little separates them: Bouzkova is ranked six places higher and has started sets far better.

That makes Bouzkova the narrow favourite in ordinary terms, though 1.55 for her to win the match asks more than the case supports. Bejlek with a 4.5-game start at 1.5 and 2.4 for Bejlek to win both offer something.

Context

No tour-level meeting exists between the two, so neither brings a direct read on the other's patterns into a quarterfinal that decides the last semifinal place in the bottom half. Bejlek, 20, is the left-hander and the younger of the pair; Bouzkova, 28, is ranked higher and has the longer tour record. The missing head-to-head is an information gap for both rather than an advantage for either, and it limits how far either player's recent results can serve as a matchup guide.
- The two Czechs have no previous tour-level meeting.
- Both won their round-of-16 matches in straight sets on 21 October.
- The winner meets the Fernandez-Alexandrova quarterfinal winner in the semifinals.
ConfirmedSources checked 22 Oct 2026, 20:46 · Europe/Bucharest
This is Bejlek's strongest result of the Asian swing: she had lost her only previous match against Cirstea at Wimbledon 2026, and this time she closed out a first-set tiebreak before taking the second set. Cirstea was the eighth seed at No. 17, so the win is a step up in class without being a top-10 scalp. Limitation: Bejlek needed three sets to get past Alycia Parks in the first round, so five sets across two matches sit behind this quarterfinal appearance.
- Bejlek won the round-of-16 match 7-6(3), 6-4.
- Cirstea was the eighth seed and had won their only prior meeting at Wimbledon 2026.
- Bejlek needed three sets to beat Alycia Parks in the first round.
ConfirmedSources checked 22 Oct 2026, 20:46 · Europe/Bucharest
The change removed the highest-ranked player from this section: Swiatek was the second seed, and Bouzkova instead played a lucky loser ranked No. 111. That is why her route to the quarterfinals contains no seeded opponent, in contrast to Bejlek's win over the eighth seed. Limitation: the alteration changes who she beat, not her own level, which has not yet been tested by a seed in Ningbo.
- Swiatek withdrew from the event before the second round.
- Zakharova entered the draw as a lucky loser and played Bouzkova instead.
- Bouzkova won 7-5, 6-2 to reach the quarterfinals.
ReportedSources checked 22 Oct 2026, 20:46 · Europe/Bucharest
Bejlek's left-handed game has settled only after slow starts in this window.
Bejlek is 6-9 in first sets on hard since early August, winning 4.53 games and losing 5.40 in them, with four first-set tiebreaks. Her second sets are 10-5, winning 5.13 games against 4.27, a reversal of close to the same margin. Against an opponent who has started quickly this week, dropping the opener is a live risk, though her last first set was a 7-6 against Cirstea.
- 15 completed hard-court matches tracked, 4 August to 21 October 2026.
- First sets: 6 wins, 9 losses, 4.53 games won and 5.40 lost on average, four tiebreaks.
- Second sets: 10 wins, 5 losses, 5.13 games won and 4.27 lost on average.
- Five of the 15 matches contained a tiebreak.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 4

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Bouzkova's higher ranking and strong first-set record give her a narrow lead in a first meeting between two similar Czech players.
- Bouzkova is ranked 26th, six places above Bejlek.
- She is 8-6 on hard over her last 14 completed matches.
- Her first-set record is 10-4, compared with Bejlek's 6-9.
- She won both of her Ningbo matches in straight sets.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonMarie BouzkovaEstimated chance53%

Games0 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.50
The read
Bejlek has rarely lost by five or more games recently, while Bouzkova's wins have usually been by four or fewer.
- Bejlek's recent hard-court game margins are +3, +4, -5, -3, +5 and -8.
- She stays within +4.5 games in four of those six matches.
- Bouzkova's recent hard-court margins are +6, +4, -5, -1 and +4.
- Bouzkova has won by more than 4.5 games only once in those five matches.
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostSara Bejlek +4.5Estimated chance78%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' first sets average above 9.5, and tiebreaks are common enough to push set1 over.
- Bejlek's first sets average 9.93 total games.
- Bouzkova's first sets average 10.36 total games.
- Bejlek has had 4 first-set tiebreaks in 15 hard matches.
- Bouzkova has had 5 first-set tiebreaks in 14 hard matches.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The averages sit almost exactly on the 22.5 mark, and the frequent tiebreaks make a longer match plausible.
- Bejlek's hard-court matches average 21.8 total games; Bouzkova's average 23.1.
- Their combined set1 total games average is 10.15.
- Both players have low three-set rates, 4/15 and 4/14.
- Five of Bejlek's 15 and six of Bouzkova's 14 hard matches included a tiebreak.
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 22.5Estimated chance51%

Sets2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.50
The read
The historical set counts strongly favor a two-set match despite the even matchup.
- Bejlek's hard-court scorelines are 9 straight-set matches and 4 three-setters.
- Bouzkova's hard-court scorelines are 10 straight-set matches and 4 three-setters.
- Their average sets per match are 2.27 and 2.29.
- Both players won in straight sets in the round of 16.
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.60
The read
Bouzkova's first-set record is clearly stronger, and she has started well in Ningbo.
- Bouzkova has won 10 of 14 first sets on hard.
- Bejlek has won only 6 of 15 first sets on hard.
- Bouzkova averages 6.0 games won and 4.36 lost in set1.
- She won the first set 7-5 and 6-4 in her two Ningbo matches.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonMarie BouzkovaEstimated chance59%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Most of their hard-court matches finish without a tiebreak, especially in second sets.
- Bejlek has had no tiebreak in 10 of 15 hard matches.
- Bouzkova has had no tiebreak in 8 of 14 hard matches.
- Bejlek's second sets have produced no tiebreaks in 15 matches.
- Bouzkova's second sets have produced 2 tiebreaks in 14 matches.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance56%

Prediction history

Marie Bouzkova: 13/15 recent winner projections matched

13 of 15 comparable winner projections favouring Marie Bouzkova matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Marie Bouzkova15 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

24 Jul·WTA Prague

#21Marie Bouzkova1-2#63Tereza Valentova

BetBugsMarie Bouzkova to win·72%

Missed

24 Jul 2026

WTA Prague

#21Marie Bouzkova1-2#63Tereza Valentova

Marie Bouzkova to win

72%probability

Tereza Valentova won

Missed

22 Jul·WTA Prague

#21Marie Bouzkova2-0#179Carol Young Suh Lee

BetBugsMarie Bouzkova to win·82%

Matched

22 Jul 2026

WTA Prague

#21Marie Bouzkova2-0#179Carol Young Suh Lee

Marie Bouzkova to win

82%probability

Marie Bouzkova won

Matched

22 Jul·WTA Prague

#21Marie Bouzkova2-0#179Carol Young Suh Lee

BetBugsMarie Bouzkova to win·78%

Matched

22 Jul 2026

WTA Prague

#21Marie Bouzkova2-0#179Carol Young Suh Lee

Marie Bouzkova to win

78%probability

Marie Bouzkova won

Matched

20 Jul·WTA Prague

#21Marie Bouzkova2-0#62Jessica Bouzas Maneiro

BetBugsMarie Bouzkova to win·72%

Matched

20 Jul 2026

WTA Prague

#21Marie Bouzkova2-0#62Jessica Bouzas Maneiro

Marie Bouzkova to win

72%probability

Marie Bouzkova won

Matched

4 Jul·WTA Wimbledon

#41Liudmila Samsonova1-2#23Marie Bouzkova

BetBugsMarie Bouzkova to win·62%

Matched

4 Jul 2026

WTA Wimbledon

#41Liudmila Samsonova1-2#23Marie Bouzkova

Marie Bouzkova to win

62%probability

Marie Bouzkova won

Matched

Previous match context available

Sara Bejlek

9W 6L

7-6(3) 6-4#17Sorana Cirstea 4-6 6-3 6-3#64Alycia Parks

6-3 6-4#35Jasmine Paolini

7-6(4) 6-4#19Naomi Osaka

6-3 7-5#133Maddison Inglis

6-0 6-4#38Cristina Bucsa

6-4 6-3#64Alycia Parks

7-5 4-6 6-1#38Cristina Bucsa

6-4 6-1#5Cori Gauff

3-6 6-4 7-6(5)#21Madison Keys

7-6(7) 6-4#2Aryna Sabalenka

4-6 6-1 6-2#33Ekaterina Alexandrova

7-6(5) 6-4#45Barbora Krejcikova

6-0 6-2#48Karolina Pliskova

6-0 6-3#9Iga Swiatek

Marie Bouzkova

9W 6L

7-5 6-2#111Anastasia Zakharova 6-4 6-4#67Kamilla Rakhimova

1-6 6-1 6-1#11Maja Chwalinska

6-1 2-0 ret.#54Clara Tauson

7-6(3) 4-6 7-5#22Qinwen Zheng

6-4 6-4#41Kimberly Birrell

7-6(2) 4-6 6-4#49Sonay Kartal

7-6(3) 7-6(3)#9Iga Swiatek

6-2 6-2#117Harriet Dart

6-2 6-2#157Elsa Jacquemot

6-3 6-2#5Cori Gauff

7-6(0) 7-6(5)#12Iva Jovic

6-2 6-4#107Lucrezia Stefanini

7-6(4) 7-5#89Taylor Townsend

2-6 6-4 7-6(6)#88Tereza Valentova

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

SBSara BejlekBejlek

Last 15

2–6

9 core stats · 1 even

Marie BouzkovaBouzkovaMB

Marie Bouzkova carries the stronger recent form — Sara Bejlek's route runs through serve.

Serve · 1–3 · 1 even

1st Serve In15/15 · 14/1561.9%+5.3pp67.2%

1st Serve Won15/15 · 14/1563.2%+3.9pp67.1%

2nd Serve Won15/15 · 14/1546.3%+1.9pp44.4%

Aces / Match15/15 · 14/151.7+0.92.6

Double Faults / Match15/15 · 14/153.2—3.1

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won15/15 · 14/1542.6%+2.3pp44.9%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted15/15 · 14/1544.3%+8.9pp53.2%

Break Pts Saved15/15 · 14/1557.4%+1.0pp56.4%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won15/15 · 14/1549.7%+2.5pp52.2%

Serve · 1–3 · 1 even

61.9%1st Serve In15/15 · 14/15+5.3pp67.2%

63.2%1st Serve Won15/15 · 14/15+3.9pp67.1%

46.3%2nd Serve Won15/15 · 14/15+1.9pp44.4%

1.7Aces / Match15/15 · 14/15+0.92.6

3.2Double Faults / Match15/15 · 14/15—3.1

Return · 0–1

42.6%Return Pts Won15/15 · 14/15+2.3pp44.9%

Pressure · 1–1

44.3%Break Pts Converted15/15 · 14/15+8.9pp53.2%

57.4%Break Pts Saved15/15 · 14/15+1.0pp56.4%

Points · 0–1

49.7%Total Pts Won15/15 · 14/15+2.5pp52.2%

Sara Bejlek

Marie Bouzkova

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Sara Bejlek +4.5

Under 2.5

Sara Bejlek

Sara Bejlek 2-0

Marie Bouzkova

Result1 of 1 landed

Games0 of 3 landed

Sets2 of 2 landed

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Sara Bejlek

Marie Bouzkova

Stat Battle