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Predictions graded

Sorana Cirstea #17Romania0Sara Bejlek #32Czechia2

Sets 6-7 · 4-6Wed 21 Oct 2026, 10:40 Predictions gradedSecond RoundHard

Predictions3–633%

Edges2–250%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageSorana Cirstea · 15 places

Sorana Cirstea

Romania

Cirstea made her Top 20 debut at age 36 in May 2026 and was ranked No. 17 on July 27. She has announced that 2026 will be her final professional season.

Current ranking: #17
Peak ranking: #17 · 2026
Current age: 36
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 176 cm

Sara Bejlek

Czechia

Czech left-hander born January 31, 2006. She reached a career-high No. 34 in April 2026 and won her first WTA singles title from qualifying in Abu Dhabi earlier that season.

Current ranking: #32
Peak ranking: #34 · 2026
Current age: 20
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Left handed
Height: —

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 21 Oct 2026, 06:11 · Europe/Bucharest

Cirstea holds the ranking, the Wimbledon win and the shorter first round; Bejlek holds the better hard-court win rate in this window.

Cirstea is the likelier winner, but 1.44 asks more than that case justifies. Bejlek at 2.75 is the one quote that offers anything.

Context

Cirstea has named 2026 as her final season and the published Asian schedule places her retirement within weeks, making Ningbo one of the last events of her career rather than a routine 500-level week. Her Hong Kong entry next week confirms the swing continues past this tournament, so the farewell is a sequence of appearances rather than a single send-off. The frame matters because every remaining result is now read as a closing chapter for a player who only broke into the Top 20 at 36. It does not, however, alter the tennis itself: her ranking and results this season were produced before the farewell began, and her opening win here was an ordinary 6-3, 6-2.
- Cirstea confirmed in early October that this is her final year on tour and set out her Asian swing schedule.
- Ningbo is a stop on that farewell swing; she is also entered for the Hong Kong WTA 250 the following week.
- She is the eighth seed here and was ranked No. 17 on 27 July 2026, a career high.
ConfirmedSources checked 21 Oct 2026, 06:09 · Europe/BucharestFlashscore match pagewww.flashscore.co.uk · 21 Oct 2026
Cirstea has closed out her recent wins quickly on hard courts, though her defeats have been split between two-set and three-set losses.
Cirstea has finished every hard-court win in this sample without dropping a set, and her matches average 2.22 sets. That points to a short night if she gets ahead, although two of her four defeats went the distance. Bejlek's matches average 2.33 sets, only marginally longer.
- Nine completed hard-court matches from 5 August to 19 October 2026, with retirements excluded.
- Scoreline split: 2-0 five times, 1-2 twice, 0-2 twice.
- All five wins came in straight sets.
Bejlek has regularly conceded the first set but has a stronger second-set record, which shapes how her matches tend to unfold.
She has given the first set away consistently, while her second-set record is 9-6 in the same sample. An early deficit is therefore familiar rather than decisive for her, and she has won 2-1 four times. Cirstea's own fast starts make the opening set informative but not conclusive.
- 15 completed hard-court matches from 2 August to 20 October 2026.
- First sets: 6 won, 9 lost; second sets: 9 won, 6 lost.
- She lost the opening set 4-6 to Alycia Parks on 20 October before winning 6-3, 6-3.
Cirstea won that Wimbledon first round 6-1, 7-6(6), and the tiebreak is the part that carries forward: Bejlek absorbed a one-sided opening set and still pushed the second to a shootout, so the straight-sets line flatters Cirstea's control of the match. The obvious limitation is surface. That meeting was on grass, where Cirstea's flat, early striking skids through low, while Ningbo is an outdoor hard court on which Bejlek has played almost her entire recent schedule. Both players have changed since June as well: Bejlek has moved up the rankings and Cirstea has played a limited hard-court programme, so the single grass result is context for the matchup rather than a template for it.
- Cirstea won the only prior meeting 6-1, 7-6(6) at Wimbledon on 30 June 2026.
- The second set reached a tiebreak after Cirstea took the opener 6-1.
- Ningbo is the pair's second meeting of 2026.
ConfirmedSources checked 21 Oct 2026, 06:09 · Europe/BucharestTennis.com Ningbo match pagewww.tennis.com · 21 Oct 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 3

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Total SetswonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Under 2.5

1.45fair 1.49

BetBugs 67% · Market 69%

−2.0ppshort

Straight-set finishes dominate both players' recent hard-court results.

Set 1 WinnerlostUncertainty band: Lean

Sorana Cirstea

1.45fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 69%

−9.0ppshort

Cirstea starts matches strongly while Bejlek has repeatedly conceded the opening set.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Cirstea is the higher-ranked player, won their only meeting and had a shorter, earlier first round.
- Cirstea's hard-court sample is 5 wins from 9 matches, all five in straight sets
- Bejlek is 9-6 on hard but lost to Paolini 3-6 4-6 on 12 October, while Cirstea beat Paolini 6-3 6-3 on 4 September
- Cirstea beat Han Shi 6-3 6-2 on 19 October; Bejlek needed three sets on 20 October
- Cirstea won the only meeting 6-1 7-6(6) at Wimbledon on 30 June 2026
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostSorana CirsteaEstimated chance58%

Games2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
A margin above three games needs a lopsided score, and Bejlek has kept most recent matches close.
- Cirstea's matches average 21.4 total games, leaving limited margin
- Bejlek's three-set win over Parks was 16-12 on games
- Bejlek's four 2-1 wins were mostly close
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonSara Bejlek +3.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Bejlek's matches run slightly above the line and she plays plenty of tight sets.
- Bejlek's hard-court matches average 22.3 total games, Cirstea's 21.4
- Bejlek's matches produced a tiebreak four times in 15
- Cirstea lost to Hanyu Guo 17-15 on games
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Cirstea's strong starts produce short opening sets more often than long ones.
- Cirstea concedes only 4.0 games per opening set across nine hard-court matches
- She won her opener's first set 6-3
- Bejlek lost first sets 0-6 and 3-6 in recent matches
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostUnder 9.5Estimated chance53%

Sets1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.45
The read
Straight-set finishes dominate both players' recent hard-court results.
- Cirstea's average match length is 2.22 sets, Bejlek's 2.33
- Cirstea won 2-0 in five of nine hard-court matches
- The Wimbledon meeting finished in two sets
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance67%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.45
The read
Cirstea starts matches strongly while Bejlek has repeatedly conceded the opening set.
- Cirstea has won the first set in 6 of 9 hard-court matches
- Bejlek has lost the first set in 9 of 15
- Cirstea took the opening set 6-1 in their Wimbledon meeting
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostSorana CirsteaEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Cirstea's second sets are the most dominant part of her recent record.
- Cirstea has won the second set in 6 of 9 hard-court matches
- Her second sets average 5.67 games won to 4.0 lost
- Bejlek has won 9 of 15 second sets
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerlostSorana CirsteaEstimated chance56%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Most sets in both players' recent samples were settled before 6-6.
- Tiebreaks came in 2 of Cirstea's 9 and 4 of Bejlek's 15 hard-court matches
- Cirstea's four listed straight-set wins contained no tiebreak
- Cirstea's set1 and set2 games won averages both exceed 5
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostNoEstimated chance70%

Prediction history

Sorana Cirstea: 13/15 recent winner projections matched

13 of 15 comparable winner projections favouring Sorana Cirstea matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Sorana Cirstea15 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

4 Jul·WTA Wimbledon

#18Sorana Cirstea1-2#12Linda Noskova

BetBugsSorana Cirstea to win·62%

Missed

4 Jul 2026

WTA Wimbledon

#18Sorana Cirstea1-2#12Linda Noskova

Sorana Cirstea to win

62%probability

Linda Noskova won

Missed

2 Jul·WTA Wimbledon

#18Sorana Cirstea2-0#72Kimberly Birrell

BetBugsSorana Cirstea to win·65%

Matched

2 Jul 2026

WTA Wimbledon

#18Sorana Cirstea2-0#72Kimberly Birrell

Sorana Cirstea to win

65%probability

Sorana Cirstea won

Matched

30 Jun·WTA Wimbledon

#18Sorana Cirstea2-0#45Sara Bejlek

BetBugsSorana Cirstea to win·72%

Matched

30 Jun 2026

WTA Wimbledon

#18Sorana Cirstea2-0#45Sara Bejlek

Sorana Cirstea to win

72%probability

Sorana Cirstea won

Matched

12 Jun·WTA London

#18Sorana Cirstea0-2#42Emma Raducanu

BetBugsSorana Cirstea to win·72%

Missed

12 Jun 2026

WTA London

#18Sorana Cirstea0-2#42Emma Raducanu

Sorana Cirstea to win

72%probability

Emma Raducanu won

Missed

9 Jun·WTA London

#18Sorana Cirstea2-1#151Maddison Inglis

BetBugsSorana Cirstea to win·78%

Matched

9 Jun 2026

WTA London

#18Sorana Cirstea2-1#151Maddison Inglis

Sorana Cirstea to win

78%probability

Sorana Cirstea won

Matched

Head-to-Head

1-0 (1 meetings)

W6-1 7-6(6)Sorana Cirstea#17vSara Bejlek#32Jun 30, 2026

1 total meetings

Previous match context available

Sorana Cirstea

9W 6L

6-3 6-2#177Han Shi

1-6 7-6(6) 7-5#189Hanyu Guo

6-3 6-4#4Jessica Pegula

6-3 6-3#35Jasmine Paolini

6-2 7-5#34Diane Parry

6-3 6-0#102Julia Grabher

6-2 4-6 7-5#4Jessica Pegula

6-7(4) 6-1 5-0 ret.#23Anna Kalinskaya

7-6(5) 6-3#29Nikola Bartunkova

6-4 6-4#90Maya Joint

2-6 6-3 7-6(9)#8Linda Noskova

6-3 6-4#41Kimberly Birrell

6-1 7-6(6)#32Sara Bejlek

6-4 6-2#109Emma Raducanu

6-4 5-7 6-2#133Maddison Inglis

Sara Bejlek

9W 6L

4-6 6-3 6-3#64Alycia Parks

6-3 6-4#35Jasmine Paolini

7-6(4) 6-4#19Naomi Osaka

6-3 7-5#133Maddison Inglis

6-0 6-4#38Cristina Bucsa

6-4 6-3#64Alycia Parks

7-5 4-6 6-1#38Cristina Bucsa

6-4 6-1#5Cori Gauff

3-6 6-4 7-6(5)#21Madison Keys

7-6(7) 6-4#2Aryna Sabalenka

4-6 6-1 6-2#33Ekaterina Alexandrova

7-6(5) 6-4#45Barbora Krejcikova

6-0 6-2#48Karolina Pliskova

6-0 6-3#9Iga Swiatek

6-3 4-6 7-5#81Xiyu Wang

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

SCSorana CirsteaCirstea

Last 15

6–3

9 core stats · 0 even

Sara BejlekBejlekSB

Sorana Cirstea carries the stronger recent form — Sara Bejlek's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–3

1st Serve In14/15 · 15/1559.2%+1.7pp60.9%

1st Serve Won14/15 · 15/1566.6%+2.8pp63.8%

2nd Serve Won14/15 · 15/1544.0%+2.6pp46.6%

Aces / Match14/15 · 15/153.7+2.21.5

Double Faults / Match14/15 · 15/153.60.5 fewer3.1

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won14/15 · 15/1545.8%+3.0pp42.8%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted14/15 · 15/1543.9%+2.9pp41.0%

Break Pts Saved14/15 · 15/1556.8%+0.9pp55.9%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won14/15 · 15/1551.6%+1.8pp49.8%

Serve · 2–3

59.2%1st Serve In14/15 · 15/15+1.7pp60.9%

66.6%1st Serve Won14/15 · 15/15+2.8pp63.8%

44.0%2nd Serve Won14/15 · 15/15+2.6pp46.6%

3.7Aces / Match14/15 · 15/15+2.21.5

3.6Double Faults / Match14/15 · 15/150.5 fewer3.1

Return · 1–0

45.8%Return Pts Won14/15 · 15/15+3.0pp42.8%

Pressure · 2–0

43.9%Break Pts Converted14/15 · 15/15+2.9pp41.0%

56.8%Break Pts Saved14/15 · 15/15+0.9pp55.9%

Points · 1–0

51.6%Total Pts Won14/15 · 15/15+1.8pp49.8%

Sorana Cirstea

Sara Bejlek

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Sara Bejlek

Under 2.5

Sorana Cirstea

Sorana Cirstea 2-0

Result0 of 1 landed

Games2 of 3 landed

Sets1 of 3 landed

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Head-to-Head

Sorana Cirstea

Sara Bejlek

Stat Battle