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Predictions graded

Kyrian Jacquet #85France0Brandon Nakashima #17United States2

Sets 4-6 · 3-6Thu 22 Oct 2026, 18:45 Predictions gradedSecond RoundI.hard

Predictions5–550%

Edges2–250%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageBrandon Nakashima · 68 places

Kyrian Jacquet

France

Structured profile lists him at No. 121 with a right-handed, two-handed-backhand game. Reliable public profile details for the remaining fields were not confirmed in this review.

Current ranking: #85
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 175 cm

Brandon Nakashima

United States

Nakashima reached a career-high No. 29 on 5 May 2025. The ITF lists hard court as his preferred surface.

Current ranking: #17
Peak ranking: #29 · 2025
Current age: 25
Preferred surface: I.hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 188 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 21 Oct 2026, 07:56 · Europe/Bucharest

Nakashima is 68 places higher and serves bigger, but Jacquet has taken five of his last six second sets and is playing at home in Lyon.

Nakashima is still the likelier winner, though not at 1.45; the prices that hold up are Jacquet for the second set at 2.4 and Jacquet to win the match at 2.75.

Context

Jacquet is the only player in this match sleeping at home and commuting to the arena, and he has already turned that familiarity into a win over Berrettini in front of a home crowd. The local routine and the backing are the reason a No. 85 qualifier should not be read purely through his ranking against the fifth seed. The limit is that home support changes no shot, and the 68-place ranking gap remains the starting point for the match assessment.
- Lyon-born and trains at Jo-Wilfried Tsonga's academy
- Post-match: 'I sleep at home. I live in Grandclément. I take the scooter, put it in the tram and I arrive at the Arena!'
- Beat Berrettini in the opening round of the inaugural edition
ConfirmedSources checked 21 Oct 2026, 07:54 · Europe/Bucharest
Those October wins came at tour level against players ranked in the top 25, which is the evidence behind treating a No. 85 qualifier as more than a home story. It matters for this fixture because Nakashima's level is set at No. 17, and Jacquet has spent the month beating opponents of comparable standing on the same surface. The limitation is that the run tailed off sharply: Rublev won 7-6(0) 6-1 in the Hangzhou semi-final and Jacquet then failed to qualify in Shanghai, losing a third-set tie-break to Rei Sakamoto.
- Hangzhou semi-final, lost to Andrey Rublev
- Tokyo quarter-final after beating Holger Rune and Luciano Darderi on hard courts
ConfirmedSources checked 21 Oct 2026, 07:54 · Europe/Bucharest
Jacquet's first-set games won average 5.9 against 4.9 lost, so his opening sets tend to stay level deep into the set.
Nakashima's own first sets average 11.1 games with six tiebreaks in twelve, so an early tiebreak here is a realistic outcome rather than a stretch. It also means the first set is unlikely to be wrapped up quickly, which raises the game count in the opener.
- 14 hard-court matches between 19 August and 20 October 2026
- First-set games average 10.8 (5.9 won, 4.9 lost)
- Six first-set tiebreaks in those 14 matches
His serve is the shot that separates a No. 17 from a No. 85, even in a season of modest win-loss numbers.
That serve is why he is the favourite despite a 10-5 record in the window and a three-set opener that finished after midnight. Jacquet's route into the match is to keep return games close and take the few chances that come, because break points against Nakashima have been rare.
- 15 hard-court matches tracked, latest 20 October 2026
- 11 aces per match (165 in 15)
- 78.8% first-serve points won (555 of 704)
- 71.4% break points saved (50 of 70)

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 2

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Set 1 WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

Brandon Nakashima

1.50fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 66.7%

−4.7ppshort

Nakashima starts matches well and his serve makes him hard to break early.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Nakashima sits 68 ranking places higher and backs it with the stronger serve and game-winning numbers on this surface.
- Ranked 17th versus Jacquet's 85th
- Won 53.7% of games and 78.8% of first-serve points across 15 hard-court matches
- 10-5 on the current surface, 22-16 in sets
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonBrandon NakashimaEstimated chance60%

Games1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' opening sets regularly run past ten games and into tiebreaks.
- Jacquet's first sets average 10.8 games
- Nakashima's first sets average 11.1 games
- Six first-set tiebreaks each in the tracked samples
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance67%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Their combined second-set games sit just above the line, with Nakashima's sets lasting longer.
- Jacquet's second sets average 9.7 games
- Nakashima's second sets average 10.9 games
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance61%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Jacquet's games have been close to level with his opponents, so a small cushion covers often.
- Jacquet's six listed matches total +11 games
- His wins came by +3, +5, +5 and +4
- Nakashima has several heavy defeats like 5-12 and 11-18
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostKyrian Jacquet +2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Long opening sets and a reasonable chance of a decider push the combined total near the line.
- Jacquet's matches average 22.8 games
- Nakashima's matches average 25.8 games
- Both average more than ten games in first sets
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 24.5Estimated chance54%

Sets2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.50
The read
Nakashima starts matches well and his serve makes him hard to break early.
- 8-4 in opening sets on hard courts
- Set-one games average 11.1 with six tiebreaks in twelve matches
- 11 aces per match
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonBrandon NakashimaEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.50
The read
Most of both players' recent hard-court matches have finished in straight sets.
- Jacquet's matches average 2.21 sets, Nakashima's 2.42
- Jacquet went 2-0 in eight of fourteen matches
- Nakashima went 2-0 in four and lost 0-2 in three of twelve
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.40
The read
Jacquet's second-set record is much better than Nakashima's, who has repeatedly dropped the middle set.
- 10-4 in second sets across fourteen hard-court matches
- Won the second set in five of six listed recent matches
- Nakashima has lost seven of twelve second sets
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerlostKyrian JacquetEstimated chance54%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' recent matches very often include at least one tiebreak set.
- Jacquet had a tiebreak in eight of fourteen matches
- Nakashima had one in eight of twelve
- Both average six first-set tiebreaks
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostYesEstimated chance65%

Prediction history

Brandon Nakashima: 8/11 recent winner projections matched

8 of 11 comparable winner projections favouring Brandon Nakashima matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Brandon Nakashima11 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

30 Jul·ATP Washington

#33Brandon Nakashima2-1#17Jakub Mensik

BetBugsBrandon Nakashima to win·55%

Matched

30 Jul 2026

ATP Washington

#33Brandon Nakashima2-1#17Jakub Mensik

Brandon Nakashima to win

55%probability

Brandon Nakashima won

Matched

28 Jul·ATP Washington

#32Brandon Nakashima2-0#31Tomas Martin Etcheverry

BetBugsBrandon Nakashima to win·62%

Matched

28 Jul 2026

ATP Washington

#32Brandon Nakashima2-0#31Tomas Martin Etcheverry

Brandon Nakashima to win

62%probability

Brandon Nakashima won

Matched

2 Jul·ATP Wimbledon

#31Brandon Nakashima2-3#74Jan-Lennard Struff

BetBugsBrandon Nakashima to win·62%

Missed

2 Jul 2026

ATP Wimbledon

#31Brandon Nakashima2-3#74Jan-Lennard Struff

Brandon Nakashima to win

62%probability

Jan-Lennard Struff won

Missed

30 Jun·ATP Wimbledon

#31Brandon Nakashima3-0#145Jack Pinnington-Jones

BetBugsBrandon Nakashima to win·78%

Matched

30 Jun 2026

ATP Wimbledon

#31Brandon Nakashima3-0#145Jack Pinnington-Jones

Brandon Nakashima to win

78%probability

Brandon Nakashima won

Matched

20 Jun·ATP London

#32Brandon Nakashima1-2#27Francisco Cerundolo

BetBugsBrandon Nakashima to win·58%

Missed

20 Jun 2026

ATP London

#32Brandon Nakashima1-2#27Francisco Cerundolo

Brandon Nakashima to win

58%probability

Francisco Cerundolo won

Missed

Previous match context available

Kyrian Jacquet

10W 5L

7-6(4) 7-5#43Matteo Berrettini

7-6(1) ret.#147Michael Mmoh

6-3 7-5#181Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg

7-6(6) 4-6 7-6(8)#124Rei Sakamoto

6-2 7-6(1)#788Tianhui Zhang

6-4 6-2#51Jaume Antoni Munar Clar

6-3 7-6(5)#23Luciano Darderi

6-3 6-1#195Holger Rune

7-6(0) 6-1#22Andrey Rublev

7-6(12) 6-4#64Fabian Marozsan

6-2 6-3#29Tomas Martin Etcheverry

7-6(5) 3-6 6-3#116Aleksandar Vukic

6-4 4-6 6-4#397Aziz Dougaz

6-4 6-3#189Lautaro Midon

7-6(5) 6-1#116Aleksandar Vukic

Brandon Nakashima

10W 5L

7-6(4) 6-7(4) 6-2#76Hamad Medjedovic

6-7(7) 6-3 7-6(5)#19Alexander Bublik

7-6(4) 7-5#43Matteo Berrettini

6-3 6-2#35Ugo Humbert

6-1 3-6 10-7#16Jakub Mensik

6-3 6-4 6-4#37Alex Michelsen

6-2 6-1 6-0#49Sebastian Baez

7-5 6-3#9Frances Tiafoe

7-6(9) 4-6 6-3#14Taylor Fritz

6-3 6-7(5) 6-3#52Nuno Borges

6-7(3) 7-6(4) 6-1#5Daniil Medvedev

6-2 7-5#82Aleksandar Kovacevic

6-3 7-6(4)#4Ben Shelton

7-6(3) 6-4#11Rafael Jodar

6-2 6-3#23Luciano Darderi

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

KJKyrian JacquetJacquet

Last 15

1–6

9 core stats · 2 even

Brandon NakashimaNakashimaBN

Brandon Nakashima carries the stronger recent form — Kyrian Jacquet's route runs through return.

Serve · 0–4 · 1 even

1st Serve In58.0%+2.5pp60.5%

1st Serve Won79.4%—78.8%

2nd Serve Won52.9%+1.7pp54.6%

Aces / Match7.3+3.711.0

Double Faults / Match1.90.3 fewer1.6

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won35.9%+3.3pp32.6%

Pressure · 0–2

Break Pts Converted31.2%+4.5pp35.7%

Break Pts Saved63.6%+7.8pp71.4%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

Total Pts Won51.8%—51.1%

Serve · 0–4 · 1 even

58.0%1st Serve In+2.5pp60.5%

79.4%1st Serve Won—78.8%

52.9%2nd Serve Won+1.7pp54.6%

7.3Aces / Match+3.711.0

1.9Double Faults / Match0.3 fewer1.6

Return · 1–0

35.9%Return Pts Won+3.3pp32.6%

Pressure · 0–2

31.2%Break Pts Converted+4.5pp35.7%

63.6%Break Pts Saved+7.8pp71.4%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

51.8%Total Pts Won—51.1%

Kyrian Jacquet

Brandon Nakashima

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Kyrian Jacquet

Kyrian Jacquet

Brandon Nakashima

Under 2.5

Result1 of 1 landed

Games1 of 4 landed

Sets2 of 3 landed

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Kyrian Jacquet

Brandon Nakashima

Stat Battle