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Predictions graded

Matteo Berrettini #43Italy0Kyrian Jacquet #85France2

Sets 6-7 · 5-7Tue 20 Oct 2026, 18:10 Predictions gradedFirst RoundI.hard

Predictions6–460%

Edges3–260%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageMatteo Berrettini · 42 places

Matteo Berrettini

Italy

Former world No. 6 Berrettini is a Wimbledon finalist. On 7 July 2026, he withdrew from Gstaad and Kitzbühel after being diagnosed with chronic hip pain, with the stated aim of preparing for the US hard-court swing.

Current ranking: #43
Peak ranking: #6 · 2022
Current age: 30
Preferred surface: Carpet
Hand: Right handed
Height: 196 cm

Kyrian Jacquet

France

Structured profile lists him at No. 121 with a right-handed, two-handed-backhand game. Reliable public profile details for the remaining fields were not confirmed in this review.

Current ranking: #85
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 175 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 19 Oct 2026, 22:23 · Europe/Bucharest

Berrettini, ranked 43rd, has lost all seven first sets across his last seven completed hard-court best-of-three matches and has not played since 9 October.

Jacquet, 85th, came through qualifying after a Hangzhou semi-final and a Tokyo quarter-final, and he looks the likelier winner, with 2.25 to win the match, 2.2 for the first set, 2.1 with a +0.5 game handicap, 2.3 for over 2.5 sets and 2.2 for over 25.5 games all worth backing. Berrettini at 1.65 does not hold up.

Context

The two arrive on opposite curves: Berrettini has had eleven days to prepare but no competitive tennis since Shanghai, while Jacquet has match sharpness on the tournament court at the cost of roughly two hours inside 24 hours. Because the second of those matches was cut short by an opponent's retirement, his accumulated load is modest, which limits how far the schedule can be read as fatigue. What remains is court time: Jacquet is the only one of the two who has already served, returned and moved on this floor in competition.
- Jacquet's second qualifying match ended after one set, so his weekend load is closer to one full match than two.
- Berrettini is 43rd and unseeded; Jacquet is 85th and was the top seed in qualifying.
- Berrettini's last match before Lyon was a straight-set loss to a top-20 opponent.
ConfirmedSources checked 19 Oct 2026, 22:20 · Europe/BucharestTennis Templeen.tennistemple.com · 19 Oct 2026
Lyon is the first of four events he has named for the closing five weeks, which makes this a working week rather than a single appearance, and the target has a concrete reward: a seeded position in Melbourne. The stated goal also explains why an unseeded player ranked 43rd is playing a 250 in the week after Shanghai instead of resting. He was careful to frame the aim as personal, saying a finish near 35th would not frustrate him, so the target should be read as scheduling intent rather than as pressure to force results.
- Berrettini described the Tokyo and Shanghai results as disappointing.
- He said the top-30 aim carries mainly personal value.
- He is 43rd in the rankings and unseeded in a Lyon field where the top four seeds have byes.
ReportedSources checked 19 Oct 2026, 22:20 · Europe/Bucharest
A slow indoor floor with a low bounce reduces the free points Berrettini normally collects from his serve and lengthens rallies, which is the direction that suits Jacquet's return-and-rally game. It also puts weight on the second serve, the area where the early numbers here were weakest on both sides of the net. The read rests on twelve qualifying matches and one main-draw match on a surface installed eight days earlier, so it is a direction of travel rather than an established venue profile.
- The comparable qualifying samples were 84% holds and 75% first-serve points won in Almaty, and 82% and 73% in Brussels.
- The first main-draw match, Balshaw d. Faria 6-2 4-6 6-3, was described as slow with a low bounce.
- The court was laid on 11 October, days before the event began.
ReportedSources checked 19 Oct 2026, 22:20 · Europe/Bucharest
Those are main-draw ATP wins over seeded-standard opposition in the weeks immediately before Lyon, which is why an 85th-ranked qualifier is not a routine first-round opponent for a former top-10 player. The run also explains why he was seeded first in the Lyon qualifying draw rather than needing a wild card. Both deep runs ended in straight-set losses to Rublev and Munar, so the evidence points to a raised baseline rather than a title-level peak.
- He beat Rune, Etcheverry, Marozsan and Darderi at tour level within five weeks of this match.
- Both deep runs ended in straight-set defeats to higher-ranked players.
- He returned to France after the Shanghai qualifying event and prepared for Lyon rather than entering another event.
ConfirmedSources checked 19 Oct 2026, 22:20 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.25
The read
Jacquet has won more hard-court matches and carries stronger recent tour-level scalps, while Berrettini has been inconsistent in best-of-three hard matches.
- Jacquet is 8-6 on hard and has beaten Darderi and Rune in recent tour-level matches.
- Berrettini is 4-5 on hard and 3-4 in completed hard-court best-of-three matches.
- Berrettini has lost all seven first sets in his hard-court best-of-three sample.
- Berrettini has not played since 9 October, while Jacquet competed on 18 October.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonKyrian JacquetEstimated chance55%

Games3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.10
The read
Jacquet has been winning more games than he loses, and Berrettini has not consistently done so.
- Jacquet's six recent hard-court matches produced a +16 game margin (75-59).
- Berrettini's four recent hard-court best-of-three matches produced a -5 game margin (50-55).
- Berrettini won one of those matches despite losing the game count 14-16.
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonKyrian Jacquet +0.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' first sets have regularly gone beyond nine games.
- Berrettini's first sets on hard average 10.6 total games.
- Jacquet's first sets on hard average 10.4 total games.
- Berrettini had three tiebreaks in seven first sets; Jacquet had five in 14.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second sets have been slightly quicker than first sets but still often reach double figures.
- Berrettini's second sets average 10.3 total games.
- Jacquet's second sets average 9.6 total games.
- Berrettini had three second-set tiebreaks in seven matches; Jacquet had two in 14.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.20
The read
Berrettini's matches tend to run long, while Jacquet's often finish in straight sets, leaving the total close.
- Berrettini's hard-court best-of-three matches average 27.7 total games.
- Jacquet's hard-court best-of-three matches average 22.3 total games.
- Five of Berrettini's seven hard-court best-of-three matches went to a deciding set, while three of Jacquet's 14 did.
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 25.5Estimated chance55%

Sets1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.20
The read
Berrettini has started slowly on hard, while Jacquet has been the more reliable first-set player.
- Berrettini has lost all seven first sets in his hard-court best-of-three sample.
- Jacquet has won 8 of 14 first sets on hard.
- Jacquet averaged 5.6 games won to 4.9 lost in first sets.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonKyrian JacquetEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.30
The read
Berrettini's matches have usually needed a third set, but Jacquet has often won in two.
- Berrettini's hard-court best-of-three matches averaged 2.71 sets.
- Five of Berrettini's seven hard-court best-of-three matches went to a deciding set.
- Only three of Jacquet's 14 hard-court best-of-three matches went to a deciding set.
BetBugs · Total SetslostOver 2.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Berrettini's second-set record is stronger than his first-set record, and he has often recovered after a slow start.
- Berrettini has won 5 of 7 second sets in his hard-court best-of-three sample.
- Jacquet has won 9 of 14 second sets on hard.
- Berrettini often lost the first set and then won the second in his recent matches.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerlostMatteo BerrettiniEstimated chance55%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Berrettini's matches frequently include a tiebreak, and Jacquet's first sets often go close.
- Berrettini had a tiebreak in six of seven hard-court best-of-three matches.
- Jacquet had a tiebreak in seven of 14 hard-court best-of-three matches.
- Berrettini's first sets included three tiebreaks in seven; Jacquet's included five in 14.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonYesEstimated chance66%

Prediction history

Kyrian Jacquet: 7/8 recent winner projections matched

7 of 8 comparable winner projections favouring Kyrian Jacquet matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Kyrian Jacquet8 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

18 Jul·ATP Estoril

#130Kyrian Jacquet2-0—Goncalo Da Rosa Castro

BetBugsKyrian Jacquet to win·85%

Matched

18 Jul 2026

ATP Estoril

#130Kyrian Jacquet2-0—Goncalo Da Rosa Castro

Kyrian Jacquet to win

85%probability

Kyrian Jacquet won

Matched

30 Jun·ATP Wimbledon

#136Kyrian Jacquet3-0#129Vilius Gaubas

BetBugsKyrian Jacquet to win·62%

Matched

30 Jun 2026

ATP Wimbledon

#136Kyrian Jacquet3-0#129Vilius Gaubas

Kyrian Jacquet to win

62%probability

Kyrian Jacquet won

Matched

25 Jun·ATP Wimbledon

#178Timofey Skatov0-3#136Kyrian Jacquet

BetBugsKyrian Jacquet to win·62%

Matched

25 Jun 2026

ATP Wimbledon

#178Timofey Skatov0-3#136Kyrian Jacquet

Kyrian Jacquet to win

62%probability

Kyrian Jacquet won

Matched

24 Jun·ATP Wimbledon

#229Andrea Guerrieri0-2#136Kyrian Jacquet

BetBugsKyrian Jacquet to win·65%

Matched

24 Jun 2026

ATP Wimbledon

#229Andrea Guerrieri0-2#136Kyrian Jacquet

Kyrian Jacquet to win

65%probability

Kyrian Jacquet won

Matched

22 Jun·ATP Wimbledon

#241Pedro Boscardin Dias0-2#145Kyrian Jacquet

BetBugsKyrian Jacquet to win·65%

Matched

22 Jun 2026

ATP Wimbledon

#241Pedro Boscardin Dias0-2#145Kyrian Jacquet

Kyrian Jacquet to win

65%probability

Kyrian Jacquet won

Matched

Previous match context available

Matteo Berrettini

8W 7L

7-6(4) 7-5#17Brandon Nakashima

6-7(3) 6-1 6-4#82Aleksandar Kovacevic

7-6(6) 6-1#54Adolfo Daniel Vallejo

1-6 7-6(1) 6-4#13Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

3-6 6-3 6-4 7-6(4)#45Mariano Navone

7-6(4) 7-6(3) 6-0#140Stan Wawrinka

6-4 6-7(3) 6-3#20Jiri Lehecka

3-6 6-1 6-4#69Titouan Droguet

6-3 6-7(5) 6-3#45Mariano Navone

6-3 6-4 3-6 5-7 6-3#123Grigor Dimitrov

6-4 7-5 3-6 6-3#10Arthur Fils

6-7(7) 7-6(16) 7-6(7) 7-6(5)#140Stan Wawrinka

7-5 5-2 ret.#36Matteo Arnaldi

6-3 7-6(2) 7-6(6)#53Juan Manuel Cerundolo

7-6(3) 5-7 6-7(4) 6-4 7-6(13)#130Francisco Comesana

Kyrian Jacquet

9W 6L

7-6(1) ret.#147Michael Mmoh

6-3 7-5#181Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg

7-6(6) 4-6 7-6(8)#124Rei Sakamoto

6-2 7-6(1)#788Tianhui Zhang

6-4 6-2#51Jaume Antoni Munar Clar

6-3 7-6(5)#23Luciano Darderi

6-3 6-1#195Holger Rune

7-6(0) 6-1#22Andrey Rublev

7-6(12) 6-4#64Fabian Marozsan

6-2 6-3#29Tomas Martin Etcheverry

7-6(5) 3-6 6-3#116Aleksandar Vukic

6-4 4-6 6-4#397Aziz Dougaz

6-4 6-3#189Lautaro Midon

7-6(5) 6-1#116Aleksandar Vukic

6-2 6-4#54Adolfo Daniel Vallejo

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

MBMatteo BerrettiniBerrettini

Last 15

4–2

9 core stats · 3 even

Kyrian JacquetJacquetKJ

Matteo Berrettini carries the stronger recent form — Kyrian Jacquet's route runs through return.

Serve · 2–1 · 2 even

1st Serve In65.2%+8.3pp56.9%

1st Serve Won78.5%—78.1%

2nd Serve Won52.9%—53.6%

Aces / Match13.3+6.86.5

Double Faults / Match2.80.7 fewer2.1

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won31.9%+3.7pp35.6%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted33.0%+2.9pp30.1%

Break Pts Saved65.2%+3.5pp61.7%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

Total Pts Won50.5%—51.2%

Serve · 2–1 · 2 even

65.2%1st Serve In+8.3pp56.9%

78.5%1st Serve Won—78.1%

52.9%2nd Serve Won—53.6%

13.3Aces / Match+6.86.5

2.8Double Faults / Match0.7 fewer2.1

Return · 0–1

31.9%Return Pts Won+3.7pp35.6%

Pressure · 2–0

33.0%Break Pts Converted+2.9pp30.1%

65.2%Break Pts Saved+3.5pp61.7%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

50.5%Total Pts Won—51.2%

Matteo Berrettini

Kyrian Jacquet

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Kyrian Jacquet

Kyrian Jacquet +0.5

Over 2.5

Kyrian Jacquet

Over 25.5

Result1 of 1 landed

Games3 of 4 landed

Sets1 of 3 landed

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Matteo Berrettini

Kyrian Jacquet

Stat Battle