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Predictions graded

Stan Wawrinka #142Switzerland2Martin Landaluce #73Spain1

Sets 6-3 · 6-7 · 7-6Wed 21 Oct 2026, 12:05 Predictions gradedFirst RoundI.hard

Predictions4–640%

Edges2–433%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageMartin Landaluce · 69 places

Stan Wawrinka

Switzerland

Swiss right-hander with a one-handed backhand. His career-high ATP singles ranking is No. 3, reached in January 2014; 2026 is his announced final professional season.

Current ranking: #142
Peak ranking: #3 · 2014
Current age: 41
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 183 cm

Martin Landaluce

Spain

Reached career-high No. 55 on 15 June 2026; ATP lists grass as his favourite surface. He became the first player born in 2006 or later to reach an ATP Masters 1000 quarter-final at Miami in March 2026.

Current ranking: #73
Peak ranking: #55 · 2026
Current age: 20
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 193 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 19 Oct 2026, 03:52 · Europe/Bucharest

Wawrinka's farewell fortnight runs into a 20-year-old who has just played five matches in six days.

Landaluce is the likelier winner, though 1.55 is about the right price rather than a bargain. Over 24.5 games at 2.2 is the one quote here that offers something.

Context

This first round sits inside a two-week closing sequence, with Basel seven days later, so it is one of at most two tour-level events left in a 24-year career. That explains why a 41-year-old ranked 142 is still taking main-draw places rather than ending the season early, and it gives the week a defined end point. The occasion carries no playing edge, though: he has contested one match since 18 September, and a first-round loss here would send him to Basel with barely any competitive tennis behind him.
- Lyon is the second-to-last tournament of Wawrinka's career; he retires the following week in Basel.
- His Basel first round is scheduled for Tuesday 27 October.
- Wawrinka is 41 and ranked 142, with one match played since mid-September.
ConfirmedSources checked 19 Oct 2026, 03:49 · Europe/BucharestLa Libertéwww.laliberte.ch · 17 Oct 2026
The run ended a poor stretch — five defeats in six matches through September — and it is the most matches he has won in a week since the North American hard-court swing, so he arrives with more recent wins than anyone else in this draw. The cost is concrete: five matches in six days in China, an intercontinental flight, and a switch from outdoor hard courts to an indoor hard court, all before a first round on 20 October. Weather, jet lag and leg wear are the variables that could offset the form, and they are the reason his week in Jinan cuts both ways.
- Seeded fifth at the Jinan Challenger 125 and reached the final.
- Lost the final to Mattia Bellucci 6-2 4-6 6-3 .
- Played five matches between 13 and in China.
- Lyon first round scheduled for 20 October.
ConfirmedSources checked 19 Oct 2026, 03:49 · Europe/Bucharest
A five-month gap without a tour-level win, spanning clay, grass and hard courts, means the 142 ranking describes a player who is losing first and second rounds rather than one in decline from a higher base. For this fixture the relevant number is volume: he has one match since mid-September against an opponent who has just played five in six days, which inverts the usual experience gap. The counterpoint is that he has still won three matches in that stretch and took Matteo Berrettini to three tight sets at the US Open, so the level has not collapsed entirely.
- No tour-level win since the Geneva Open in May.
- Three wins in his last 15 matches, including 2-8 on clay.
- Latest match ended in a three-set loss on 18 September.
ReportedSources checked 19 Oct 2026, 03:49 · Europe/BucharestLa Libertéwww.laliberte.ch · 17 Oct 2026
The bracket gives the first round unusual weight: the reward for winning is the only top-10 player in the field rather than another unseeded opponent, while the loser's week ends immediately. It frames the match as a gatekeeper for a rare opportunity — a first look at a Roland-Garros finalist for a 20-year-old ranked 73, and at least one more match in a farewell week for Wawrinka. Nothing about the next round changes who is favoured here, but it explains why this is not a routine 250 opener.
- Winner faces top seed Flavio Cobolli in the round of 16.
- Cobolli is ranked 7 and reached this year's Roland-Garros final.
ConfirmedSources checked 19 Oct 2026, 03:49 · Europe/BucharestLa Libertéwww.laliberte.ch · 17 Oct 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 4

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Set 2 WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

Martin Landaluce

1.60fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 62.5%

−0.5ppshort

Landaluce has been stronger in second sets on hard courts.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.55
The read
Landaluce has been the more competitive hard-court player and returns serve well enough to pressure Wawrinka.
- Landaluce is 6-7 on hard in his tracked sample.
- Landaluce won 38.3% of return points on hard.
- Landaluce converted 41.1% of break points on hard.
- Landaluce is ranked 73; Wawrinka is 142.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostMartin LandaluceEstimated chance66%

Games3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' second sets have generally produced more than 10 games.
- Landaluce's 12 hard-court second sets average 10.8 games.
- Wawrinka's three hard-court second sets average 12.0 games.
- Landaluce has had three second-set tiebreaks in 12 matches.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance64%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Wawrinka has kept some hard-court matches close, and Landaluce's wins have not all been wide.
- Wawrinka lost to Heide by only one game on hard in best-of-three.
- Landaluce's four recent hard-court wins came by 4, 4, 4 and 6 games.
- Landaluce lost two recent hard-court matches by 4 and 5 games.
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonStan Wawrinka +3.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' first sets have generally reached at least 10 games.
- Landaluce's 12 hard-court first sets average 9.8 games.
- Wawrinka's three hard-court first sets average 10.7 games.
- Landaluce has had two first-set tiebreaks in 12 matches.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.20
The read
Both players' recent hard-court matches have generally produced more than 24 games.
- Landaluce's 12 hard-court best-of-three matches average 25.3 total games.
- Wawrinka's three hard-court best-of-three matches average 26.0 total games.
- Landaluce has played six three-set matches in that 12-match sample.
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 24.5Estimated chance53%

Sets1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.60
The read
Landaluce has been stronger in second sets on hard courts.
- Landaluce won 8 of 12 second sets on hard.
- Wawrinka lost 2 of 3 second sets in his hard-court sample.
- Landaluce won 38.3% of return points on hard.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonMartin LandaluceEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.50
The read
Landaluce has won half his hard-court matches in straight sets, and fatigue could shorten this one.
- Landaluce has four 2-0 wins and two 0-2 losses in 12 hard-court best-of-three matches.
- Wawrinka's only hard-court win in the sample was 2-0.
- Landaluce is playing two days after a three-set final.
BetBugs · Total SetslostUnder 2.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.60
The read
Landaluce has been the stronger player overall, though first sets have been close for him.
- Landaluce won 6 of 12 first sets on hard.
- Wawrinka won 2 of 3 first sets in his hard-court best-of-three sample.
- Landaluce is ranked 73; Wawrinka is 142.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostMartin LandaluceEstimated chance56%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Their recent hard-court ace rates are well below 12.5.
- Wawrinka averaged 4.3 aces per match on hard this season.
- Landaluce averaged 5.2 aces per match on hard this season.
- Their combined hard-court average is about 9.5 aces.
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableUnder 12.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Landaluce's hard-court matches have produced tiebreaks less often than not.
- Landaluce had tiebreaks in 4 of 12 hard-court best-of-three matches.
- Wawrinka had tiebreaks in 2 of 3 hard-court best-of-three matches.
- Landaluce's first sets average 9.8 games.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostNoEstimated chance56%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have been prone to double faults on hard courts.
- Wawrinka averaged 4.0 double faults per match on hard this season.
- Landaluce averaged 5.2 double faults per match on hard this season.
- Their combined hard-court average is about 9.2.
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 8.5Estimated chance55%

Prediction history

Martin Landaluce: 4/8 recent winner projections matched

4 of 8 comparable winner projections favouring Martin Landaluce matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Martin Landaluce8 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

29 Jun·ATP Wimbledon

#202SoonWoo Kwon3-0#58Martin Landaluce

BetBugsMartin Landaluce to win·65%

Missed

29 Jun 2026

ATP Wimbledon

#202SoonWoo Kwon3-0#58Martin Landaluce

Martin Landaluce to win

65%probability

SoonWoo Kwon won

Missed

22 Jun·ATP Mallorca

#77Jan-Lennard Struff2-1#55Martin Landaluce

BetBugsMartin Landaluce to win·58%

Missed

22 Jun 2026

ATP Mallorca

#77Jan-Lennard Struff2-1#55Martin Landaluce

Martin Landaluce to win

58%probability

Jan-Lennard Struff won

Missed

15 Jun·ATP Halle

#53Terence Atmane2-1#58Martin Landaluce

BetBugsMartin Landaluce to win·55%

Missed

15 Jun 2026

ATP Halle

#53Terence Atmane2-1#58Martin Landaluce

Martin Landaluce to win

55%probability

Terence Atmane won

Missed

14 Jun·ATP Halle

#58Martin Landaluce2-0#229Tom Gentzsch

BetBugsMartin Landaluce to win·68%

Matched

14 Jun 2026

ATP Halle

#58Martin Landaluce2-0#229Tom Gentzsch

Martin Landaluce to win

68%probability

Martin Landaluce won

Matched

13 Jun·ATP Halle

#58Martin Landaluce2-1#320Marc Andrea Huesler

BetBugsMartin Landaluce to win·65%

Matched

13 Jun 2026

ATP Halle

#58Martin Landaluce2-1#320Marc Andrea Huesler

Martin Landaluce to win

65%probability

Martin Landaluce won

Matched

Previous match context available

Stan Wawrinka

3W 12L

4-6 7-6(4) 6-4#116Gustavo Heide

7-6(4) 7-6(3) 6-0#46Matteo Berrettini

6-3 6-4#79Roman Safiullin

7-6(6) 7-6(3)#126Dalibor Svrcina

6-4 4-6 6-3#62Roman Andres Burruchaga

6-7(8) 6-4 6-4#60Jaime Faria

6-7(7) 7-6(16) 7-6(7) 7-6(5)#46Matteo Berrettini

6-3 3-6 6-3 6-4#95Jesper De Jong

7-6(1) 7-6(4)#35Alex Michelsen

6-2 4-6 7-6(5)#231Raul Brancaccio

4-6 7-6(5) 6-1#173Stefano Travaglia

6-3 6-4#120Sebastian Ofner

6-4 6-7(5) 6-4#40Cameron Norrie

7-5 7-5#53Sebastian Baez

2-6 6-4 7-6(2)#272Matteo Martineau

Martin Landaluce

7W 8L

6-2 4-6 6-3#86Mattia Bellucci 7-6(0) 6-3#219Liam Draxl 3-6 6-2 6-3#202Keegan Smith

6-4 7-5#420Jie Cui

6-3 6-3#154Ilia Simakin

6-4 6-4#59Jan-Lennard Struff

6-1 6-7(9) 7-6(2)#90Marco Trungelliti

6-2 6-3#252Matias Soto

6-0 6-4#148Dusan Lajovic

4-6 6-2 4-6 7-5 6-3#96Jacob Fearnley

6-4 6-7(3) 6-1#86Mattia Bellucci

7-6(5) 7-6(4)#54Thiago Agustin Tirante

6-4 4-6 6-4#38Matteo Arnaldi

6-3 7-5#158Jack Draper

4-6 6-4 6-3#119Nicolas Mejia

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

SWStan WawrinkaWawrinka

Last 15

4–4

9 core stats · 1 even

Martin LandaluceLandaluceML

Dead-even recent form — the edges are in serve.

Serve · 4–1

1st Serve In14/15 · 14/1554.8%+7.9pp62.7%

1st Serve Won14/15 · 14/1572.9%+5.2pp67.7%

2nd Serve Won14/15 · 14/1552.7%+5.4pp47.3%

Aces / Match14/15 · 14/157.4+2.54.9

Double Faults / Match14/15 · 14/153.21.9 fewer5.1

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won14/15 · 14/1532.9%+5.2pp38.1%

Pressure · 0–2

Break Pts Converted14/15 · 14/1528.3%+12.6pp40.9%

Break Pts Saved14/15 · 14/1555.3%+3.9pp59.2%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

Total Pts Won14/15 · 14/1548.3%—48.9%

Serve · 4–1

54.8%1st Serve In14/15 · 14/15+7.9pp62.7%

72.9%1st Serve Won14/15 · 14/15+5.2pp67.7%

52.7%2nd Serve Won14/15 · 14/15+5.4pp47.3%

7.4Aces / Match14/15 · 14/15+2.54.9

3.2Double Faults / Match14/15 · 14/151.9 fewer5.1

Return · 0–1

32.9%Return Pts Won14/15 · 14/15+5.2pp38.1%

Pressure · 0–2

28.3%Break Pts Converted14/15 · 14/15+12.6pp40.9%

55.3%Break Pts Saved14/15 · 14/15+3.9pp59.2%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

48.3%Total Pts Won14/15 · 14/15—48.9%

Stan Wawrinka

Martin Landaluce

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Martin Landaluce

Over 24.5

Martin Landaluce

Martin Landaluce

Under 2.5

Martin Landaluce 2-0

Result0 of 1 landed

Games3 of 4 landed

Sets1 of 3 landed

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Stan Wawrinka

Martin Landaluce

Stat Battle