Tatiana Prozorova #117Russia11 – 2Kamilla Rakhimova #69Uzbekistan2

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.65

The read

A higher ranking, a much stronger record in opening sets and a win in their only meeting give her a narrow advantage.

• Ranked 69 vs 117; won the only previous meeting 4-6 7-6 6-0 in Ningbo in 2024
• Took the first set in 10 of 15 hard-court matches, against Prozorova's 4 of 14
• Saved 59.7% of break points on hard courts vs 52.0%
• Autumn wins over Fernandez (No. 25) and Kenin, plus a US Open win over Krejcikova

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Her matches are consistently tight, so a five-game cushion is rarely needed.

• Net hard-court game count +18 across 14 matches
• Five of her last six matches stayed within four games
• Average hard-court match length 127.8 minutes, pointing to close sets

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.85

The read

She rarely loses by more than a couple of games, so a three-game cushion is often unnecessary.

• Five of her last six matches finished within four games
• Won 181 of 344 hard-court games (52.6%)
• Won seven of nine hard-court wins via a deciding set, usually narrowly

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Opening sets in these matches tend to end 6-3 or 6-4 rather than going long.

• Both players' first sets average 9.3 games
• Only three first-set tiebreaks in 29 first sets between them
• Prozorova has lost 10 of 14 first sets, often 4-6 or shorter

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Rakhimova's straight-set wins are short, and neither player's sets often reach tiebreaks.

• Rakhimova's hard-court matches average 21.9 games
• Six of her nine hard-court wins came in straight sets
• Only two tiebreaks in Prozorova's 14 hard-court matches

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced

The read

The combined second-set average sits right on the line, making this close to even.

• Prozorova's second sets average 9.7 games
• Rakhimova's second sets average 9.3 games
• Combined second-set average is about 9.5

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.65

The read

Rakhimova starts matches far more reliably, taking the opener roughly twice as often across this sample.

• Won 10 of 15 first sets on hard courts
• Averaged 5.1 games won and 4.2 lost in first sets
• Prozorova won just 4 of 14 first sets

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.30

The read

Prozorova's matches routinely go the distance, and she is likely to need a comeback route here.

• Prozorova's hard-court scorelines: 2-1 seven times, 1-2 twice, out of 14
• Rakhimova went to a decider in 5 of 15 hard-court matches
• Prozorova averaged 2.64 sets per hard-court match

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Her second sets are her strongest phase, and she often needs them after a slow start.

• Won 9 of 14 second sets on hard courts
• Averaged 5.3 games won and 4.4 lost in second sets
• Rakhimova won 7 of 15 second sets

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Most of these sets break before reaching six-all, so a tiebreak is the less likely outcome.

• Only two tiebreaks in Prozorova's last 14 hard-court matches
• Seven tiebreak matches combined from 29 matches
• No first-set tiebreaks at all in Prozorova's 14 hard-court matches

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Both players rely on placement rather than power, keeping ace counts low.

• Prozorova has 27 aces in 14 hard-court matches
• Rakhimova has 34 in 15 hard-court matches
• Combined average of 4.2 per match against a 4.5 line

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Rakhimova's high double-fault rate carries the combined total close to the line.

• Rakhimova averages 5.5 double faults per hard-court match
• Prozorova averages 2.6 per hard-court match
• Rakhimova's first-serve rate is only 54.9%