SpainWTA MallorcaFinishedFeatured

Predictions graded

Francesca Curmi #233Malta2Elizara Yaneva #1461

Sets 6-1 · 4-6 · 6-4Fri 16 Oct 2026, 11:10 Predictions gradedQuarter-FinalClay

Predictions7–558%

Edges1–150%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageElizara Yaneva · 87 places

Francesca Curmi

Malta

Curmi, 24, is right-handed and lists hard as her preferred surface. She reached her highest singles ranking, No. 235, in July 2026.

Current ranking: #233
Peak ranking: #235 · 2026
Current age: 24
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: —

Elizara Yaneva

Yaneva is a 19-year-old right-hander whose ITF profile lists hard as her preferred surface. She was ranked No. 193 on August 3, 2026 after reaching a career-high No. 186 on July 20.

Current ranking: #146
Peak ranking: #186 · 2026
Current age: 19
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: —

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 14 Oct 2026, 22:12 · Europe/Bucharest

Yaneva, ranked No. 146, brings a 12-3 clay record into this Mallorca quarter-final against Curmi, the No. 233 who has beaten the fourth seed after losing the first set.

Yaneva's serving and returning point to her winning, though first sets between the two have been near level. At 1.73, Yaneva to win the match is the price that holds up; Curmi at 2.1 does not, and the same 1.73 on Yaneva to take the second set adds nothing.

Context

Curmi beat a fourth seed ranked No. 129, the highest-ranked opponent in her tracked recent matches, and did so after losing the opening set, so the result is a clear improvement on her recent ITF-level results. Her live ranking moved to about No. 218, above the No. 235 career high she set in July 2026. Against Yaneva, the relevance is that Curmi has already beaten a higher-ranked player on this clay and twice recovered from a set down this week; the limitation is that both wins went three sets, so the run has cost her two long matches.
- Bassols Ribera was the fourth seed and ranked No. 129
- Curmi won 3-6 6-3 6-3 in the round of 16
- Curmi had also come from a set down to beat Eva Vedder 4-6 7-5 6-0 in the first round
- The win lifted her live ranking to about No. 218
ConfirmedSources checked 14 Oct 2026, 22:10 · Europe/Bucharest
Yaneva reached an ITF W50 final in late September and moved to a career-high live ranking inside the top 150, so this WTA 125 quarterfinal is part of a continuing step up in level rather than an isolated week. The qualification is that her form has been volatile: she won the first set of that Plovdiv final and lost it in three, and at the ITF W50 in Burgas the following week she was beaten 4-6 4-6 by Sonja Zhenikhova, ranked outside the top 750. That contrast is the main caution against reading the ranking rise as steady progress.
- Yaneva lost the Plovdiv W50 final to Ane Mintegi Del Olmo 6-2 1-6 3-6
- The run produced a career-high live ranking of about No. 149
- She was listed at No. 146 in the WTA ranking
ConfirmedSources checked 14 Oct 2026, 22:10 · Europe/Bucharest
Yaneva, ranked No. 146, leans on a first serve that has held up on clay this autumn.
Yaneva's serve is split in two: 63.8% of first-serve points won across 15 clay matches (443/694), against 45.1% of second-serve points (213/472). She averaged 0.8 aces and 5.0 double faults per match in that sample. An opponent able to extend rallies on the second serve has a route in, even when the first serve keeps Yaneva ahead.
- Across 15 clay matches from 11 September to 14 October 2026, Yaneva hit 12 aces (0.8 per match) and 75 double faults (5.0 per match)
- She won 63.8% of first-serve points (443/694) and 45.1% of second-serve points (213/472) in the same 15-match sample
- Her first-serve percentage in that sample was 59.5% (694/1166)
Yaneva's opening match turned on a second-set tie-break after a 1-6 first set, and she then dropped only four games in the round of 16, so she arrives in the quarterfinals with one three-set win and one straight-set win. Curmi, by contrast, has been taken to three sets in both of her matches, so Yaneva has the tidier recent route. The second round came against an opponent ranked outside the top 200 and the first was nearly lost to a player outside the top 250, so neither result is strong evidence against a top-150 opponent.
- Yaneva won 1-6 7-6(3) 6-1 against Jennifer Ruggeri
- She beat Carole Monnet 6-2 6-2 in the round of 16
ConfirmedSources checked 14 Oct 2026, 22:10 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.73
The read
Yaneva's serve and return numbers and higher ranking give her a clear but not large advantage.
- Yaneva is 12-3 in her last 15 clay matches; Curmi is 9-5 in 14
- Yaneva is ranked No. 146, Curmi No. 233
- Yaneva wins 53.7% of total points and 63.8% of first-serve points on clay
- Curmi beat No. 129 Bassols Ribera this week
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostElizara YanevaEstimated chance62%

Games5 of 6 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Curmi has almost always stayed within a few games of her opponents.
- Curmi's recent margins: +3, +6, -3, +8, +11, -4
- Only one of Curmi's six recent clay matches was lost by four or more games
- Curmi beat the No. 129 seed this week
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonFrancesca Curmi +3.5Estimated chance73%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Curmi has rarely been beaten heavily and has produced some comfortable wins of her own.
- Curmi's recent margins: +3, +6, -3, +8, +11, -4
- Curmi has won 12-1 and 12-4 in recent matches
- Yaneva won 14-13 in one recent clay match
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonFrancesca Curmi +2.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second sets have mostly stayed under ten games for both players.
- Curmi's second sets average 9.07 games, Yaneva's 9.2
- Set-2 tiebreaks: Curmi 0, Yaneva 3 in 29 matches
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostUnder 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Curmi has kept recent matches close or won them comfortably.
- Curmi's recent margins: +3, +6, -3, +8, +11, -4
- Yaneva won 14-13 in one recent clay match
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonFrancesca Curmi +1.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
First sets have usually been settled with a break rather than a tiebreak.
- Curmi's first sets average 9.14 total games, Yaneva's 9.0
- Only three first-set tiebreaks between them in 29 matches
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Yaneva's matches tend to run long and both players often play three sets.
- Curmi's clay matches average 21.9 total games
- Yaneva's clay matches average 23.1 total games
- Yaneva has gone to a deciding set in 8 of 15 matches
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 22.5Estimated chance52%

Sets1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.73
The read
Yaneva has been clearly stronger than Curmi in second sets on clay.
- Set-2 record on clay: Yaneva 12-3, Curmi 9-5
- Average second-set games won: Yaneva 5.67, Curmi 5.29
- Yaneva has lost only three second sets in 15 clay matches
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonElizara YanevaEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
First sets have been close to even, with Yaneva slightly steadier early in matches.
- Set-1 record on clay: Yaneva 8-7, Curmi 7-7
- Average first-set games won: Curmi 4.93, Yaneva 4.93
- Curmi lost the opening set in both of her wins this week
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostElizara YanevaEstimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players also finish a good share of matches in straight sets.
- Curmi averages 2.43 sets per clay match, Yaneva 2.53
- Five of Curmi's nine clay wins were 2-0
- Six of Yaneva's 12 clay wins were 2-0
BetBugs · Total SetslostUnder 2.5Estimated chance53%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Tiebreaks appear in about a fifth of these players' matches, so a clean match is the more likely outcome.
- Curmi's clay matches included a tiebreak 2 times in 14
- Yaneva's included one 4 times in 15
- Six tiebreaks in their combined 29 matches
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance63%

Prediction history

Elizara Yaneva: 3/5 recent winner projections matched

3 of 5 comparable winner projections favouring Elizara Yaneva matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Elizara Yaneva5 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

20 Jul·WTA Palermo

#287Federica Urgesi2-1#196Elizara Yaneva

BetBugsElizara Yaneva to win·58%

Missed

20 Jul 2026

WTA Palermo

#287Federica Urgesi2-1#196Elizara Yaneva

Elizara Yaneva to win

58%probability

Federica Urgesi won

Missed

17 Jul·WTA Rome

#196Elizara Yaneva1-2#405Martina Trevisan

BetBugsElizara Yaneva to win·55%

Missed

17 Jul 2026

WTA Rome

#196Elizara Yaneva1-2#405Martina Trevisan

Elizara Yaneva to win

55%probability

Martina Trevisan won

Missed

15 Jul·WTA Rome

#196Elizara Yaneva2-0#276Sofya Lansere

BetBugsElizara Yaneva to win·62%

Matched

15 Jul 2026

WTA Rome

#196Elizara Yaneva2-0#276Sofya Lansere

Elizara Yaneva to win

62%probability

Elizara Yaneva won

Matched

23 Jun·WTA Wimbledon

#307Yuriko Miyazaki0-2#201Elizara Yaneva

BetBugsElizara Yaneva to win·62%

Matched

23 Jun 2026

WTA Wimbledon

#307Yuriko Miyazaki0-2#201Elizara Yaneva

Elizara Yaneva to win

62%probability

Elizara Yaneva won

Matched

15 Jun·WTA Brescia

#225Elizara Yaneva2-0#312Giorgia Pedone

BetBugsElizara Yaneva to win·62%

Matched

15 Jun 2026

WTA Brescia

#225Elizara Yaneva2-0#312Giorgia Pedone

Elizara Yaneva to win

62%probability

Elizara Yaneva won

Matched

Previous match context available

Francesca Curmi

10W 5L

3-6 6-3 6-3#129Marina Bassols Ribera 4-6 7-5 6-0#176Eva Vedder

7-6(4) 6-4#311Alisa Oktiabreva

6-3 6-1#350Miriam Bianca Bulgaru

6-1 6-0#762Maayan Laron

6-7(6) 6-3 6-4#283Joelle Steur

6-1 2-6 6-2#144Veronika Erjavec

6-4 7-5#232Nuria Brancaccio

6-3 2-6 6-4#231Berfu Cengiz

6-3 1-6 4-4 ret.#457Emma Lene

6-1 6-4#443Carmen Gallardo Guevara

6-1 6-1#209Francisca Jorge

6-1 7-5#301Martina Trevisan

5-7 6-3 6-2#441Katerina Tsygourova

6-2 6-2#493Pia Lovric

Elizara Yaneva

12W 3L

6-2 6-2#210Carole Monnet 1-6 7-6(3) 6-1#252Jennifer Ruggeri

6-4 6-4#794Sonja Zhenikhova

4-6 6-4 6-2#620Giulia Safina Popa

2-6 6-1 6-3#207Ane Mintegi Del Olmo

6-0 6-3#261Caijsa Wilda Hennemann

7-5 6-3#348Lidia Encheva

6-2 6-2#445Laura Mair

6-3 6-3#512Margaux Maquet

6-3 6-7(1) 7-6(5)#378Loes Ebeling Koning

4-6 7-6(4) 7-5#320Ipek Oz

4-6 6-2 6-0#497Julia Adams

6-7(5) 6-0 6-3#507Gaia Maduzzi

6-1 6-2#527Sarah Van Emst

6-2 1-6 6-4#212Irene Burillo

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

FCFrancesca CurmiCurmi

Last 15

2–6

9 core stats · 1 even

Elizara YanevaYanevaEY

Elizara Yaneva carries the stronger recent form — Francesca Curmi's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–3

1st Serve In76.1%+16.6pp59.5%

1st Serve Won58.4%+5.4pp63.8%

2nd Serve Won41.6%+3.5pp45.1%

Aces / Match0.5+0.30.8

Double Faults / Match2.12.9 fewer5.0

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

Return Pts Won50.5%—51.0%

Pressure · 0–2

Break Pts Converted54.8%+0.8pp55.6%

Break Pts Saved52.6%+3.7pp56.3%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won52.5%+1.2pp53.7%

Serve · 2–3

76.1%1st Serve In+16.6pp59.5%

58.4%1st Serve Won+5.4pp63.8%

41.6%2nd Serve Won+3.5pp45.1%

0.5Aces / Match+0.30.8

2.1Double Faults / Match2.9 fewer5.0

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

50.5%Return Pts Won—51.0%

Pressure · 0–2

54.8%Break Pts Converted+0.8pp55.6%

52.6%Break Pts Saved+3.7pp56.3%

Points · 0–1

52.5%Total Pts Won+1.2pp53.7%