SpainWTA MallorcaFinishedFeatured

Predictions graded

Eva Vedder #201Netherlands1Francesca Curmi #236Malta2

Sets 6-4 · 5-7 · 0-6Mon 12 Oct 2026, 10:56 Predictions gradedFirst RoundClay

Predictions4–640%

Edges4–267%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageEva Vedder · 35 places

Eva Vedder

Netherlands

Dutch right-hander whose ITF profile lists clay as her preferred surface. WTA records a career-best singles ranking of No. 178 in 2026.

Current ranking: #201
Peak ranking: #178
Current age: 26
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: —

Francesca Curmi

Malta

Curmi, 24, is right-handed and lists hard as her preferred surface. She reached her highest singles ranking, No. 235, in July 2026.

Current ranking: #236
Peak ranking: #235 · 2026
Current age: 24
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: —

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 12 Oct 2026, 00:46 · Europe/Bucharest

Curmi is the more likely winner on clay, though Vedder is the higher-ranked player and arrives from a hard-court final in Portugal.

Curmi to win at 1.6 asks for more than her surface record supports, and so does Under 2.5 sets at 1.5. The one quoted price with a case is Over 2.5 sets at 2.3 — three sets is the less likely shape of the match, but the price pays for it.

Context

Four wins in five days immediately before this first round give Vedder recent match sharpness that a player entering cold would lack. The run came on hard courts, though, and she now switches to clay with a short turnaround, so the form may not translate directly. The final also exposed a ceiling against a higher-ranked opponent, with only four games won. For this fixture the clearest consequence is physical: she carries the heavier recent workload of the two into a slower surface.
- Vedder beat Harmony Tan 6-4 6-3 in the first round at Quinta do Lago
- Vedder beat sixth seed Francisca Jorge 6-4 3-6 6-3 in the quarter-finals
- Vedder reached the final by beating Margaux Rouvroy 6-3 6-2
- Vedder lost the final to Lisa Pigato 1-6 6-0 6-3
ConfirmedSources checked 12 Oct 2026, 00:43 · Europe/Bucharest
Curmi is the player with the deeper and more recent clay record, but her latest recorded result on the surface is a straight-sets defeat.
Curmi's clay record over the 14-match window from 17 July to 9 October is the stronger surface evidence in this first round, and she has played far more recent tennis on clay than Vedder. The closing entry, a straight-sets loss to a player ranked outside the top 400, is the caution: her clay results include defeats to lower-ranked opponents, so the surface edge does not point to a wide winning margin here.
- Curmi lost 6-7 4-6 to Alisa Oktiabreva, ranked No. 436, on clay on 9 October 2026.
- Curmi won 10 games to Oktiabreva's 13 in that match.
- It was Curmi's most recent completed match before this first round.
Vedder is ranked No. 201 to Curmi's No. 236, but her clay evidence is the smaller sample and stops almost a month before this match.
Vedder's clay sample covers eight matches ending 15 September 2026, with three wins and five defeats and a losing share of sets (8 of 19) and games (73 of 169). Her opening sets were split 4-4, while her second sets went 3-5. For this first round the surface numbers are modest and, unlike Curmi's, do not include the closing weeks of her season.
- Vedder's tracked clay sample is eight matches from 14 July to 15 September 2026, with three wins and five defeats.
- She won 8 of 19 sets and 73 of 169 games in those clay matches.
- Her clay first sets are 4-4 and her clay second sets are 3-5.
This is a first-round match at WTA 125 level on outdoor clay, a tier and surface both players have mostly approached through ITF and qualifying fields. Vedder arrives directly from a hard-court final in Portugal, while Curmi's recent match load has been almost entirely on clay, so surface familiarity is uneven. The winner takes 125-level ranking points and a second-round place in a draw that also contains higher-ranked direct entrants.
- The Mallorca WTA 125 runs October 12-18, 2026 on clay
- Vedder and Curmi are drawn in the first round on Court 1
- The main draw was set before qualifying started
ConfirmedSources checked 12 Oct 2026, 00:43 · Europe/BucharestMallorca 125 player listwww.wtatennis.com · 11 Oct 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 5

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Francesca Curmi

1.60fair 1.79

BetBugs 56% · Market 62.5%

−6.5ppshort

Curmi has the stronger clay record and has been playing on the surface recently, while Vedder's best recent form came on hard courts.

Set 1 WinnerlostUncertainty band: Slight lean

Francesca Curmi

1.60fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 62.5%

−7.5ppshort

Curmi has the better first-set clay record and starts sets more strongly by games won.

Set 2 WinnerwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Francesca Curmi

1.60fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 62.5%

−7.5ppshort

Curmi has the stronger second-set clay record, with a clear games-won advantage.

Total GameswonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Over 20.5

1.75fair 1.85

BetBugs 54% · Market 57.1%

−3.1ppshort

The average total games for both players sits just above the line, so a longer match is slightly more likely.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.60
The read
Curmi has the stronger clay record and has been playing on the surface recently, while Vedder's best recent form came on hard courts.
- Curmi is 8-6 in 14 clay matches tracked, with first sets won 8 of 14 and second sets won 8 of 14.
- Vedder is 3-5 on clay in her tracked matches, with first sets won 4 of 8 and second sets won 3 of 8.
- Curmi's latest clay match was a 0-2 loss to No. 436 Oktiabreva; Vedder's latest was a 1-2 hard-court loss to No. 114 Pigato.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonFrancesca CurmiEstimated chance56%

Games1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Vedder only needs to lose by four games or fewer, or win, to cover this margin, which happens in Curmi's losses and close wins.
- Curmi's recent clay margins are -3, +8, +11, -4, +5 and -4 games, staying within four games in three of six matches.
- Vedder's clay set averages show only small negative games margins: first set -0.5, second set -1.25.
- Curmi has six losses in 14 clay matches, and losses all cover Vedder +4.5.
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostEva Vedder +4.5Estimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.75
The read
The average total games for both players sits just above the line, so a longer match is slightly more likely.
- Vedder's clay matches average 21.13 total games.
- Curmi's clay matches average 20.57 total games.
- Curmi's latest clay match had 23 total games.
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 20.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' first-set averages are below 10 total games, making the under slightly more likely.
- Vedder's clay first sets average 9.25 total games.
- Curmi's clay first sets average 8.93 total games.
- Curmi has played 14 clay first sets and Vedder eight.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostUnder 9.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second-set totals are under 10 on average for both players, supporting the under.
- Vedder's clay second sets average 9.00 total games.
- Curmi's clay second sets average 9.07 total games.
- Vedder has won 3 of 8 and Curmi 8 of 14 second sets on clay.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostUnder 9.5Estimated chance52%

Sets1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.60
The read
Curmi has the better first-set clay record and starts sets more strongly by games won.
- Curmi has won 8 of 14 first sets on clay.
- Vedder has won 4 of 8 first sets on clay.
- Curmi averages 5.07 first-set games won to 3.86 lost.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostFrancesca CurmiEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.60
The read
Curmi has the stronger second-set clay record, with a clear games-won advantage.
- Curmi has won 8 of 14 second sets on clay.
- Vedder has won 3 of 8 second sets on clay.
- Curmi averages 5.00 second-set games won to 4.07 lost.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonFrancesca CurmiEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have mostly finished clay matches in two sets, making the under the more supported side.
- Six of Vedder's eight clay matches ended in two sets.
- Ten of Curmi's 14 clay matches ended in two sets.
- Their combined clay straight-set rate is 16 of 22 matches.
BetBugs · Total SetslostUnder 2.5Estimated chance54%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The large majority of their clay matches have no tiebreak, making 'no' the stronger side.
- Vedder has one tiebreak in eight clay matches.
- Curmi has three tiebreaks in 14 clay matches.
- Their combined clay matches have four tiebreaks in 22.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance75%

Eva Vedder

7W 8L

1-6 6-0 6-3#114Lisa Pigato

6-3 6-2#364Margaux Rouvroy

6-4 3-6 6-3#214Francisca Jorge

6-4 6-3#230Harmony Tan

2-6 6-2 7-6(5)#273Caroline Werner

2-6 6-2 6-4#544Charo Esquiva Banuls

5-7 7-6(9) 6-1#235Jennifer Ruggeri

6-1 6-2#222Maria Lourdes Carle

6-2 6-4#190Samira De Stefano

6-1 6-2#172Bianca Vanessa Andreescu

6-4 6-0#304Sohyun Park

4-6 6-3 6-0#186Mona Barthel

4-6 6-2 6-4#670Georgina Garcia-Perez

6-1 6-2#221Nuria Brancaccio

6-4 6-4#293Francesca Pace

Francesca Curmi

9W 6L

7-6(4) 6-4#436Alisa Oktiabreva

6-3 6-1#344Miriam Bianca Bulgaru

6-1 6-0#787Maayan Laron

6-7(6) 6-3 6-4#286Joelle Steur

6-1 2-6 6-2#153Veronika Erjavec

6-4 7-5#221Nuria Brancaccio

6-3 2-6 6-4#225Berfu Cengiz

6-3 1-6 4-4 ret.#463Emma Lene

6-1 6-4#454Carmen Gallardo Guevara

6-1 6-1#214Francisca Jorge

6-1 7-5#307Martina Trevisan

5-7 6-3 6-2#425Katerina Tsygourova

6-2 6-2#477Pia Lovric

6-3 6-2#301Nastasja Mariana Schunk

6-1 7-6(4)#271Xinxin Yao

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

EVEva VedderVedder

Last 15

3–6

9 core stats · 0 even

Francesca CurmiCurmiFC

Francesca Curmi carries the stronger recent form — Eva Vedder's route runs through serve.

Serve · 3–2

1st Serve In59.2%+17.3pp76.5%

1st Serve Won61.8%+4.0pp57.8%

2nd Serve Won44.7%+2.3pp42.4%

Aces / Match1.7+1.30.4

Double Faults / Match2.40.4 fewer2.0

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won44.0%+5.9pp49.9%

Pressure · 0–2

Break Pts Converted41.4%+11.6pp53.0%

Break Pts Saved47.1%+4.5pp51.6%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won49.1%+2.9pp52.0%

Serve · 3–2

59.2%1st Serve In+17.3pp76.5%

61.8%1st Serve Won+4.0pp57.8%

44.7%2nd Serve Won+2.3pp42.4%

1.7Aces / Match+1.30.4

2.4Double Faults / Match0.4 fewer2.0

Return · 0–1

44.0%Return Pts Won+5.9pp49.9%

Pressure · 0–2

41.4%Break Pts Converted+11.6pp53.0%

47.1%Break Pts Saved+4.5pp51.6%

Points · 0–1

49.1%Total Pts Won+2.9pp52.0%

Eva Vedder

Francesca Curmi

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Over 2.5

Francesca Curmi

Francesca Curmi

Francesca Curmi

Over 20.5

Francesca Curmi 2-0

Result1 of 1 landed

Games1 of 4 landed

Sets1 of 3 landed

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Eva Vedder

Francesca Curmi

Stat Battle