FranceRoanne - FranceFinishedFeatured

Predictions graded

Jerome Kym #249Switzerland2Ugo Blanchet #305France0

Sets 6-1 · 6-3Thu 15 Oct 2026, 13:00 Predictions gradedSecond RoundI.hard

Predictions4–544%

Edges0–10%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageJerome Kym · 56 places

Jerome Kym

Switzerland

Swiss right-hander who reached a career-best ATP singles ranking of No. 123 in May 2025. His official 2026 record shows most of his matches have been on clay, but no reliable source explicitly identifies a preferred surface.

Current ranking: #249
Peak ranking: #123 · 2025
Current age: 23
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 198 cm

Ugo Blanchet

France

Reached a career-high No. 139 on 30 September 2024. ATP lists hard as his favourite surface; the supplied structured profile ranks him No. 190.

Current ranking: #305
Peak ranking: #139 · 2024
Current age: 27
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 175 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 14 Oct 2026, 22:25 · Europe/Bucharest

Kym, the No. 249, faces qualifier Blanchet, the No. 305, in the Roanne second round after a reported right shoulder problem ended his Porto semi-final.

Kym remains the likelier winner, and his hard-court matches have tended to run long, but his 1.43 price asks for more than a 56% win chance justifies. The one price offering something is Blanchet at 2.63.

Context

Kym had won through to the Porto Challenger semi-final before a right shoulder problem kept him off court, handing Henrique Rocha a walkover into the final. The shoulder is on his serving arm, and Roanne asks him to return and then play again the next day against a qualifier who has already had three matches on the surface. The limitation is that he has already competed and won in two tiebreaks, so there is no current evidence the shoulder is restricting him; the withdrawal and the short turnaround are why his serving load and recovery remain the main things to watch.
- Kym did not appear for the Porto Open semi-final, handing Henrique Rocha a walkover into the final.
- The withdrawal was listed as a right shoulder injury.
- Kym returned at Roanne and won 7-6(6) 7-6(3).
ReportedSources checked 14 Oct 2026, 22:23 · Europe/Bucharest
Kym beat an opponent ranked more than 100 places above him without losing a set, but both sets reached tiebreaks, so the margin was narrow rather than dominant. It was his first completed match after the Porto shoulder withdrawal and is the clearest current read on his level before the Blanchet match. Because the result turned on two tiebreaks, it is better read as a close win over a higher-ranked opponent than as a statement performance.
- Kym defeated Clement Chidekh 7-6(6) 7-6(3) in the Roanne first round.
- Chidekh was ranked 146 and Kym 249 entering the match.
- The result advanced Kym to a second-round match against Ugo Blanchet.
ConfirmedSources checked 14 Oct 2026, 22:23 · Europe/Bucharest
Blanchet has already played three matches in three days at this event, two of them in qualifying, while Kym has played one. All three wins were in straight sets, so the extra volume has not yet forced a long match, and Blanchet had 14 October free. That is the only clear asymmetry in preparation: Kym played on 14 October and so arrives with a shorter turnaround, while Blanchet carries the heavier accumulated workload on a surface he knows well by now.
- Blanchet beat Nicolas Tepmahc 6-2 6-1 in Roanne qualifying.
- Blanchet beat Daniel De Jonge 6-4 6-3 to reach the main draw.
- Blanchet beat Tom Paris 7-6(5) 6-3 in the first round .
ConfirmedSources checked 14 Oct 2026, 22:23 · Europe/Bucharest
Kym won 5-2 across seven completed hard-court matches from 25 August to 14 October 2026, but the scorelines were 2-0 twice, 2-1 three times and 1-2 twice. Four of the seven contained a tiebreak. That points to long, tight matches rather than a fast finish, though the sample is only seven matches, and the two defeats came against Colton Smith (212) and Remy Bertola (227).
- Kym's hard-court set evidence covers 7 completed matches from 25 August to 14 October 2026, with no retirements in the sample.
- Scorelines in that sample: two 2-0 wins, three 2-1 wins and two 1-2 losses.
- Those seven matches averaged 27.6 total games and 2.7 sets.
- Four of the seven matches contained a tiebreak.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Kym is the higher-ranked player with stronger serve numbers and has beaten better opposition, including No. 146 Chidekh in round one.
- Kym is ranked 249, Blanchet 305
- Kym 5-2 on hard in current-surface sample of 7
- 73.9% first-serve points won and 11.6 aces per match on hard
- Set-one record 4-3 and set-two record 5-2 on hard
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonJerome KymEstimated chance56%

Games0 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Opening sets for both players average just over ten games, which sits above the 9.5 line.
- Kym's set-one average total is 10.3 games
- Blanchet's set-one average total is 10.1 games
- Kym had a tiebreak in set one in 3 of 7 hard matches
- Both players hold set-one games averages above five
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Kym's matches regularly stretch past 25 games, and the two players appear close enough for a competitive set count.
- Kym's hard-court matches average 27.6 total games
- Blanchet's hard-court matches average 23.7 total games
- Kym has gone to a deciding set in 5 of 7 hard matches
- Kym's last match finished 14-12 in games
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 25.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Set-two games sit close to the line, with Kym's average slightly above ten.
- Kym's set-two average total is 10.0 games
- Blanchet's set-two average total is 9.4 games
- Blanchet's set-two games average 5.4 won to 3.9 lost
- Kym has won set two 5-2 on hard this sample
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance53%

Sets2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Kym's matches frequently reach a deciding set, and the ranking gap is small enough to produce a close contest.
- Kym's hard-court matches average 2.7 sets
- Five of Kym's seven hard matches went to three sets
- Blanchet has gone to three sets in 6 of 14 hard matches
- Kym's scorelines include three 2-1 wins and two 1-2 losses
BetBugs · Total SetslostOver 2.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Kym has a strong second-set record on hard and tends to improve after a tight opener.
- Kym has won set two in 5 of 7 hard matches
- Blanchet has won set two in 10 of 14 hard matches
- Kym's set-two games average 5.6 won to 4.4 lost
- Blanchet's set-two average is 5.4 won to 3.9 lost
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonJerome KymEstimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Kym's slightly higher ranking and serve record give him a small lean in a near-even opening set.
- Kym has won set one in 4 of 7 hard matches
- Blanchet has won set one in 8 of 14 hard matches
- Kym's set-one games average 5.7 won to 4.6 lost
- Blanchet's set-one average is 5.4 won to 4.6 lost
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonJerome KymEstimated chance53%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Most of Blanchet's matches and a clear majority of the pooled sample finished without a tiebreak.
- Combined tiebreak matches 8 of 21 across both players
- Blanchet's four Roanne wins contained no tiebreaks
- Blanchet's hard-court matches average 23.7 total games
- Blanchet's set-two tiebreaks total just 1 in 14
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance60%

Prediction history

Jerome Kym: 6/8 recent winner projections matched

6 of 8 comparable winner projections favouring Jerome Kym matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Jerome Kym8 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

22 Jul·Zug - Switzerland

#198Jerome Kym1-2#294Philip Henning

BetBugsJerome Kym to win·62%

Missed

22 Jul 2026

Zug - Switzerland

#198Jerome Kym1-2#294Philip Henning

Jerome Kym to win

62%probability

Philip Henning won

Missed

20 Jul·Zug - Switzerland

#186Jerome Kym2-1#239Jay Clarke

BetBugsJerome Kym to win·62%

Matched

20 Jul 2026

Zug - Switzerland

#186Jerome Kym2-1#239Jay Clarke

Jerome Kym to win

62%probability

Jerome Kym won

Matched

14 Jul·ATP Gstaad

#186Jerome Kym2-1#618Dylan Dietrich

BetBugsJerome Kym to win·78%

Matched

14 Jul 2026

ATP Gstaad

#186Jerome Kym2-1#618Dylan Dietrich

Jerome Kym to win

78%probability

Jerome Kym won

Matched

10 Jul·Iasi - Romania

#284Maks Kasnikowski1-2#196Jerome Kym

BetBugsJerome Kym to win·58%

Matched

10 Jul 2026

Iasi - Romania

#284Maks Kasnikowski1-2#196Jerome Kym

Jerome Kym to win

58%probability

Jerome Kym won

Matched

8 Jul·Iasi - Romania

#196Jerome Kym2-0#283Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg

BetBugsJerome Kym to win·62%

Matched

8 Jul 2026

Iasi - Romania

#196Jerome Kym2-0#283Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg

Jerome Kym to win

62%probability

Jerome Kym won

Matched

Previous match context available

Jerome Kym

10W 5L

7-6(6) 7-6(3)#146Clement Chidekh

6-7(5) 6-3 7-6(5)#199Edas Butvilas

6-2 4-6 6-2#100Toby Samuel

3-6 7-5 6-1#365Tiago Torres

4-6 6-3 7-6(3)#227Remy Bertola

7-6(2) 2-6 6-4#212Colton Smith

6-0 6-3#391Dan Added

6-4 7-6(4)#164Tom Gentzsch

6-1 7-6(4)#181Elmer Moller

6-3 7-6(4)#216Lorenzo Giustino

6-3 7-6(4)#226Max Houkes

6-3 6-3#491Niels Mcdonald

7-5 4-6 6-0#267Philip Henning

1-6 6-4 6-4#240Jay Clarke

6-4 6-7(2) 7-6(5)#43Stefanos Tsitsipas

Ugo Blanchet

9W 6L

7-6(5) 6-3#676Tom Paris 6-4 6-3#585Daniel De Jonge

6-2 6-1#635Nicolas Tepmahc

6-4 3-6 6-2#146Clement Chidekh

6-3 6-4#465Viktor Durasovic

6-4 3-6 6-4#178Daniil Glinka

4-1 ret.#119Nicolas Mejia

6-4 6-4#189Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg

7-5 7-6(4)#241Billy Harris

2-6 6-4 7-6(3)#380Daniel Masur

6-3 3-6 6-3#245Daniel Rincon

6-3 6-3#348Laurent Lokoli

6-4 6-4#107Otto Virtanen

6-4 3-6 6-2#135Stefanos Sakellaridis

6-7(3) 6-2 7-5#897James Watt

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

JKJerome KymKym

Last 15

5–3

9 core stats · 1 even

Ugo BlanchetBlanchetUB

Jerome Kym carries the stronger recent form — Ugo Blanchet's route runs through serve.

Serve · 3–2

1st Serve In59.9%+3.7pp56.2%

1st Serve Won76.3%+1.3pp75.0%

2nd Serve Won50.2%+9.7pp59.9%

Aces / Match9.9+5.34.6

Double Faults / Match3.71.7 fewer2.0

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won38.0%+1.2pp36.8%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted42.3%+6.0pp36.3%

Break Pts Saved60.3%+3.6pp63.9%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

Total Pts Won52.0%—52.4%

Serve · 3–2

59.9%1st Serve In+3.7pp56.2%

76.3%1st Serve Won+1.3pp75.0%

50.2%2nd Serve Won+9.7pp59.9%

9.9Aces / Match+5.34.6

3.7Double Faults / Match1.7 fewer2.0

Return · 1–0

38.0%Return Pts Won+1.2pp36.8%

Pressure · 1–1

42.3%Break Pts Converted+6.0pp36.3%

60.3%Break Pts Saved+3.6pp63.9%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

52.0%Total Pts Won—52.4%