FranceRoanne - FranceFinishedFeatured

Predictions graded

Ugo Blanchet #305France2Daniel De Jonge #585Netherlands0

Sets 6-4 · 6-3Mon 12 Oct 2026, 08:40 Predictions gradedQ3I.hard

Predictions8–189%

Edges0–10%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageUgo Blanchet · 280 places

Ugo Blanchet

France

Reached a career-high No. 139 on 30 September 2024. ATP lists hard as his favourite surface; the supplied structured profile ranks him No. 190.

Current ranking: #305
Peak ranking: #139 · 2024
Current age: 27
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 175 cm

Daniel De Jonge

Netherlands

De Jonge, 27, is a right-hander from Vlissingen. His listed career-best singles ranking is No. 597, reached in July 2026.

Current ranking: #585
Peak ranking: #597 · 2026
Current age: 27
Preferred surface: Carpet
Hand: Right handed
Height: 193 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 12 Oct 2026, 00:21 · Europe/Bucharest

Blanchet sits 280 ranking places higher, but he is 7-7 on hard while De Jonge arrives 6-4 on the surface with every win in straight sets.

Blanchet still looks the more likely winner, though not at the 1.17 price, which demands a one-sided match. De Jonge at 4.4 is the quoted price that offers something.

Context

That rate is the main counterweight to any expectation of a quick finish in Roanne, where the format is best-of-three. Blanchet's two most recent matches were short — 6-2 6-1 over Tepmahc on 11 October and 6-3 6-4 over Durasovic on 29 September — so the longer matches are not the whole picture. Against De Jonge's straight-set habit, the set and game totals stay open.
- 8 of Blanchet's 14 completed hard-court matches from 12 Aug to 11 Oct 2026 went to a deciding set (five 1-2 losses, three 2-1 wins).
- He averages 25.9 total games per hard-court match across that 14-match sample.
De Jonge's hard-court profile is short and decisive: six of his 10 matches ended 2-0, and two of the four defeats were straight sets as well, for 2.2 sets per outing on average. That is the shorter of the two samples here and the reason his sets have rarely stretched. Blanchet has played eight three-setters in 14 hard matches, so the contrast is what makes the totals hard to call.
- De Jonge's 10 hard-court matches from 4 Aug to 11 Oct 2026 produced six 2-0 results, two 1-2 losses and two 0-2 losses.
- He averaged 20.4 total games and 2.2 sets per hard-court match.
Masur, at No. 380, was the strongest indoor-hard opponent in De Jonge's six most recent tracked matches, and the meeting still went to a third-set tiebreak. De Jonge's two other indoor-hard results in that window came against No. 640 Janvier and unranked Luca Sanchez, so the record has been built well below Blanchet's No. 305. Masur is also the only one of those three ranked inside the top 400.
- De Jonge lost 6-7, 6-4, 6-7 to Daniel Masur (No. 380) on 14 September 2026 in indoor hard.
- His other hard-court results in the six most recent tracked matches were wins over Maxime Janvier (No. 640) on 11 October and unranked Luca Sanchez on 13 September.
Blanchet, 27, is a French former No. 139 competing at a home Challenger 100, and the straight-sets win over Tepmahc moved him through the qualifying draw with little time on court. The short match preserves energy for a demanding indoor-hard event and keeps him progressing at a tournament staged in France. The caveat is that Tepmahc is ranked in the 600s, so the result confirms progression rather than form against comparable or higher-ranked opposition.
- Blanchet defeated Nicolas Tepmahc 6-2, 6-1 in the Roanne qualifying draw .
- French tennis coverage tracked Blanchet as on course to come through the Roanne qualifying draw.
ConfirmedSources checked 12 Oct 2026, 00:19 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Blanchet sits roughly 280 ranking places higher and has been competitive against far stronger opponents on this surface, while De Jonge's hard-court wins have come against much lower-ranked or unranked players.
- Blanchet is ATP No. 305 against No. 585 and has been facing ranked opposition: Chidekh (146), Glinka (178), Gueymard Wayenburg (189) and Harris (241) in his last six matches.
- Blanchet is 7-7 on hard over 14 tracked matches, with 7-7 overall and 8-6 in both first and second sets.
- De Jonge is 6-4 on hard in 10 tracked matches, with his recent wins coming mostly against opponents ranked 640 or unranked.
- De Jonge's hard-court serve numbers are solid (65.2% first serves in, 72.1% first-serve points won) but his return points won is only 39.5%.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonUgo BlanchetEstimated chance62%

Games2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' opening sets hover around the line, and De Jonge's recent first sets have regularly reached 10 games.
- Blanchet's first sets average 10.1 total games on hard.
- De Jonge's first sets average 8.7 games in the hard-court sample.
- De Jonge's recent opening sets produced 10, 9, 10, 9, 13 and 10 games.
- Five of Blanchet's six recent opening sets reached at least 9 games.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
De Jonge's matches are short and his straight-set wins have produced low game totals, and Blanchet is also capable of a quick win.
- De Jonge averages 20.4 games per hard match, well under the line.
- De Jonge's six hard-court wins were all straight sets, several finishing 6-4 6-2 or better.
- Blanchet's most recent win produced only 15 games.
- Blanchet's quick 2-0 wins this season include a 12-3 and a 12-7 game count.
BetBugs · Total GameswonUnder 23.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' second-set game averages sit virtually on the line, with Blanchet's slightly above it.
- Blanchet's second sets average 9.7 total games on hard.
- De Jonge's second sets average 9.2 total games on hard.
- De Jonge took a 6-1 second set against Thurner and a 6-2 against Janvier.
- Blanchet's second set against Harris was 7-6.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance52%

Sets3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Blanchet has the better recent level of opposition and a marginally stronger first-set win rate, though both players are close in opening sets.
- Blanchet has won 8 of 14 first sets on hard.
- De Jonge has won 6 of 10 first sets on hard.
- Blanchet's first sets average 10.1 games, De Jonge's 8.7.
- Blanchet's two most recent first sets were won 6-2 and 6-2.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonUgo BlanchetEstimated chance57%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Blanchet's second-set record is solid and his overall level against stronger opposition points to a slight edge if the match reaches a second set.
- Blanchet has won 8 of 14 second sets on hard.
- Blanchet's second sets average 5.29 games won and 4.43 lost.
- De Jonge has won 8 of 10 second sets on hard.
- Blanchet closed out Tepmahc 6-1 in the second set in his most recent match.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonUgo BlanchetEstimated chance56%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
De Jonge's pattern is decisive straight-set results, and a Blanchet win could also come efficiently given his 2-0 record.
- De Jonge has played 2.2 sets per hard match, with 6 of 10 finishing in straight sets.
- Every De Jonge hard-court win in the sample was 2-0.
- Blanchet's straight-set matches average 19.8 total games against 28.0 in his three-setters.
- Blanchet's scorelines include four 2-0 results in 14 matches.
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance56%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Neither player reaches tiebreaks often, and both have closed sets by clear margins in recent matches.
- Only 5 of Blanchet's 14 hard-court matches reached a tiebreak.
- Only 2 of De Jonge's 10 hard-court matches reached a tiebreak.
- De Jonge's wins have frequently finished 6-4 or 6-3 in sets.
- Blanchet's most recent match finished 6-2 6-1 without a tiebreak.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance66%

Ugo Blanchet

8W 7L

6-2 6-1#635Nicolas Tepmahc

6-4 3-6 6-2#146Clement Chidekh

6-3 6-4#465Viktor Durasovic

6-4 3-6 6-4#178Daniil Glinka

4-1 ret.#119Nicolas Mejia

6-4 6-4#189Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg

7-5 7-6(4)#241Billy Harris

2-6 6-4 7-6(3)#380Daniel Masur

6-3 3-6 6-3#245Daniel Rincon

6-3 6-3#348Laurent Lokoli

6-4 6-4#107Otto Virtanen

6-4 3-6 6-2#135Stefanos Sakellaridis

6-7(3) 6-2 7-5#897James Watt

6-4 4-6 7-6(4)#284Stefano Napolitano

6-7(3) 7-6(6) 7-6(3)#137Rei Sakamoto

Daniel De Jonge

9W 6L

6-4 6-2#640Maxime Janvier

6-3 6-2#847Stefan Seifert

6-4 6-2—Moritz Hoffmann

6-3 6-1#1466Noah Thurner

7-6(3) 4-6 7-6(10)#380Daniel Masur

6-4 7-6(4)—Luca Sanchez

6-1 6-4#868Adan Freire Da Silva

6-3 6-2#376Robert Strombachs

6-3 6-3#856Filippo Moroni

6-1 6-4#854Pawel Juszczak

6-0 6-0—Barney Fitzpatrick

6-0 4-6 7-5#428Izan Almazan Valiente

6-4 6-2—Valentin Gonzalez-Galino

6-4 7-6(6)#782Conor Gannon

6-4 6-3—Roan Jones

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

UBUgo BlanchetBlanchet

Last 15

2–5

9 core stats · 2 even

Daniel De JongeJongeDJ

Daniel De Jonge carries the stronger recent form — Ugo Blanchet's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

1st Serve In55.0%+8.5pp63.5%

1st Serve Won73.4%—73.9%

2nd Serve Won58.7%+11.1pp47.6%

Aces / Match4.9+0.85.7

Double Faults / Match2.31.4 fewer3.7

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won37.1%+3.4pp40.5%

Pressure · 0–2

Break Pts Converted34.5%+16.1pp50.6%

Break Pts Saved63.1%+1.8pp64.9%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

Total Pts Won51.7%—52.2%

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

55.0%1st Serve In+8.5pp63.5%

73.4%1st Serve Won—73.9%

58.7%2nd Serve Won+11.1pp47.6%

4.9Aces / Match+0.85.7

2.3Double Faults / Match1.4 fewer3.7

Return · 0–1

37.1%Return Pts Won+3.4pp40.5%

Pressure · 0–2

34.5%Break Pts Converted+16.1pp50.6%

63.1%Break Pts Saved+1.8pp64.9%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

51.7%Total Pts Won—52.2%