ItalyCatania - ItalyFinishedFeatured

Predictions graded

Izan Almazan Valiente #428Spain0Felix Gill #222United Kingdom2

Sets 4-6 · 1-6Wed 14 Oct 2026, 08:32 Predictions gradedSecond RoundClay

Predictions8–0100%

Edges3–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageFelix Gill · 206 places

Izan Almazan Valiente

Spain

Almazan Valiente, 20, is the right-hander in this matchup. He reached a best ranking of No. 487 in August 2026 and is currently No. 491.

Current ranking: #428
Peak ranking: #487 · 2026
Current age: 20
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 190 cm

Felix Gill

United Kingdom

Reached a career-high No. 216 on 13 July 2026. He lists clay as his favourite surface.

Current ranking: #222
Peak ranking: #216 · 2026
Current age: 24
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Left handed
Height: 175 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 13 Oct 2026, 03:26 · Europe/Bucharest

Fourth seed Felix Gill, ranked No. 222, meets No.

428 Izan Almazan Valiente for a place in the Catania third round. Gill owns the ranking and a 6-2 6-1 first-round win, but his tracked clay sample is only 8 matches, while Almazan Valiente has taken 9 of his 11 opening sets on clay. Gill is the likelier winner, but at the reviewed prices none is worth backing: 1.55 to win the match, 1.6 to take the opening set and 2.3 for a 2-0 win.

Context

Almazan Valiente worked through a near three-set opener on clay and lost the first set on a tiebreak before Cuenin retired, so he reaches this second-round match with more accumulated tennis than his seeded opponent. The retirement means the win is not a completed result over a higher-ranked player, so it is not evidence of a form jump. His 9-3 clay record across the tracked recent sample is the counterweight that keeps the longer opening match from being decisive on its own.
- Cuenin retired with Almazan Valiente leading 6-7(4), 6-3, 4-3
- Cuenin took a medical timeout for a leg problem before retiring
- Almazan Valiente advanced to the Catania second round
ConfirmedSources checked 13 Oct 2026, 03:24 · Europe/Bucharest
Gill begins this match as the higher-ranked and seeded player after dropping only three games and no sets in his opener, and he is playing on clay, the surface he lists as his preferred one. That efficiency leaves him with a shorter first outing than his opponent's three-set, retirement-affected match, a workload difference that runs in his favour. The caveat is the level of the test: Piraino was an alternate ranked No. 392, so the scoreline reflects a favourable draw, and a 7-6(3) 6-0 loss to Jonas Forejtek in Gill's previous tournament is the more demanding recent reference.
- Gill is the fourth seed at the Catania Challenger
- Gill beat Gabriele Piraino 6-2 6-1 in the first round
- Piraino entered the main draw as an alternate ranked No. 392
ConfirmedSources checked 13 Oct 2026, 03:24 · Europe/Bucharest
Almazan Valiente has started clay matches like a much higher-ranked player but has not carried that level through the second set.
The first-set record is the strongest part of his clay case, with an average of 5.45 games won to 3.18, but second sets have been close to even at 4.45 to 4.27. Against a fourth seed who has won 6 of 8 clay first sets, an early break of serve is the main risk, and the narrow second-set margins argue against expecting a quick finish either way. One retirement-affected match is excluded from the 11.
- Almazan Valiente won 9 of 11 first sets in clay matches from 6 to 25 September 2026, averaging 5.45 games won against 3.18 lost
- He won 6 of 11 second sets in the same sample, averaging 4.45 games won against 4.27 lost
- One retirement-affected match is excluded from the setEvidence sample of 11 clay matches
Six of eight opening sets won is the clearest number in his recent clay record, coming with an average of 6.13 games won against 4.13 lost. The three tiebreaks show those sets were often settled late rather than by an early break. The sample is only eight completed matches, and his 6-7 first set in the 25 September loss to Jonas Forejtek shows the run has not been flawless.
- Gill won 6 of 8 clay first sets in a sample running from 8 September to 12 October 2026, averaging 6.13 games won against 4.13 lost
- Three of those eight clay first sets went to a tiebreak
- The clay sample covers only 8 completed matches

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 3

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

Felix Gill

1.55fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 64.5%

−4.5ppshort

Gill is the higher-ranked, seeded player with a winning clay record and a convincing first-round win.

Set 1 WinnerwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Felix Gill

1.60fair 1.79

BetBugs 56% · Market 62.5%

−6.5ppshort

Gill has been the more dominant first-set starter and is the higher-ranked player.

Set BettingwonUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Felix Gill 2-0

2.30fair 2.63

BetBugs 38% · Market 43.5%

−5.5ppshort

Gill's recent clay wins have mostly been straight sets, making 2-0 his primary route to victory.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.55
The read
Gill is the higher-ranked, seeded player with a winning clay record and a convincing first-round win.
- Gill is ranked No. 222 and seeded fourth against No. 428 Almazan Valiente
- He is 5-3 on clay in his last 8 completed matches
- He won his Catania opener 6-2 6-1 over Gabriele Piraino
- He is a left-hander, a different look for his opponent
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonFelix GillEstimated chance60%

Games2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Second sets have generally been the shorter, more decisive sets for both players.
- Almazan Valiente's clay second sets averaged 8.73 games
- Gill's clay second sets averaged 7.75 games
- No second-set tiebreaks appeared in either sample
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Gill's often-extended first sets and the even matchup push this just above the line.
- Gill's clay first sets averaged 10.25 total games
- Almazan Valiente's clay first sets averaged 8.64 total games
- Gill played 3 first-set tiebreaks in 8 clay matches
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance51%

Sets3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Straight-set finishes dominate both players' recent clay records.
- Almazan Valiente's 11 clay matches included 8 straight-set results
- Gill's 8 clay matches included 7 straight-set results
- Combined, 15 of 19 recent clay matches ended 2-0
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.60
The read
Gill has been the more dominant first-set starter and is the higher-ranked player.
- Gill won 6 of 8 recent clay first sets
- He averaged 6.13 first-set games won against 4.13 lost
- Three of his first sets went to a tiebreak
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonFelix GillEstimated chance56%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Gill holds a modest edge in recent second-set results on clay.
- Gill won 5 of 8 recent clay second sets
- His second-set games averaged 4.13 won against 3.63 lost
- Almazan Valiente lost 5 of 11 recent clay second sets
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonFelix GillEstimated chance54%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Neither player's recent clay matches have commonly reached a tiebreak.
- Almazan Valiente recorded no tiebreaks in 11 recent clay matches
- Gill recorded 3 tiebreaks in 8 clay matches
- 16 of their combined 19 recent clay matches had no tiebreak
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance72%

Prediction history

Felix Gill: 4/5 recent winner projections matched

4 of 5 comparable winner projections favouring Felix Gill matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Felix Gill5 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

9 Jul·Nottingham - Great Britain

#565Filip Planinsek0-2#220Felix Gill

BetBugsFelix Gill to win·65%

Matched

9 Jul 2026

Nottingham - Great Britain

#565Filip Planinsek0-2#220Felix Gill

Felix Gill to win

65%probability

Felix Gill won

Matched

7 Jul·Nottingham - Great Britain

—William Jansen1-2#220Felix Gill

BetBugsFelix Gill to win·65%

Matched

7 Jul 2026

Nottingham - Great Britain

—William Jansen1-2#220Felix Gill

Felix Gill to win

65%probability

Felix Gill won

Matched

2 Jun·Birmingham - Great Britain

#160Ugo Blanchet1-2#240Felix Gill

BetBugsFelix Gill to win·58%

Matched

2 Jun 2026

Birmingham - Great Britain

#160Ugo Blanchet1-2#240Felix Gill

Felix Gill to win

58%probability

Felix Gill won

Matched

19 May·ATP Roland Garros

#666Aziz Dougaz1-2#237Felix Gill

BetBugsFelix Gill to win·72%

Matched

19 May 2026

ATP Roland Garros

#666Aziz Dougaz1-2#237Felix Gill

Felix Gill to win

72%probability

Felix Gill won

Matched

28 Apr·Ostrava - Czech Republic

#127Dalibor Svrcina2-1#231Felix Gill

BetBugsFelix Gill to win·54%

Missed

28 Apr 2026

Ostrava - Czech Republic

#127Dalibor Svrcina2-1#231Felix Gill

Felix Gill to win

54%probability

Dalibor Svrcina won

Missed

Previous match context available

Izan Almazan Valiente

10W 5L

6-7(4) 6-3 4-3 ret.#310Sean Cuenin

6-1 6-2#610Adrian Andreev

7-5 0-6 6-2#217Maxim Mrva

6-4 6-4#447Geoffrey Blancaneaux

6-1 7-5#888George Lazarov

6-2 6-3#642Stefan Popovic

6-4 6-3#318Carlo Alberto Caniato

6-4 6-3#378Franco Agamenone

6-1 6-1#516Gianmarco Ferrari

6-3 6-1#742Matteo Covato

1-6 6-4 6-2#460Santiago Rodriguez Taverna

6-2 3-6 6-1#581Saba Purtseladze

3-6 6-4 6-4#189Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg

7-5 7-5—Rodrigo Fernandes

7-6(4) 3-6 6-2—Diogo Morais

Felix Gill

8W 7L

6-2 6-1#392Gabriele Piraino

7-6(3) 6-0#343Jonas Forejtek

7-5 6-4#574Iliyan Radulov

6-1 6-0#611Alexander Vasilev

6-7(3) 6-1 6-3#240Jay Clarke

6-0 6-3#449Gerard Campana Lee

7-6(7) 6-3#437Mika Petkovic

6-4 6-2#120Sebastian Ofner

7-6(3) 6-2#229Francesco Passaro

6-2 2-0 ret.#205Jack Pinnington Jones

7-5 5-7 6-2#212Colton Smith

6-4 4-6 6-4#150Borna Gojo

2-6 6-3 7-6(4)#248Max Basing

6-1 6-3#501Filip Jeff Planinsek

6-4 6-7(5) 6-4—William Jansen

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

IVIzan Almazan ValienteValiente

Last 15

4–5

9 core stats · 0 even

Felix GillGillFG

Felix Gill carries the stronger recent form — Izan Almazan Valiente's route runs through pressure.

Serve · 1–4

1st Serve In62.7%+4.5pp58.2%

1st Serve Won66.4%+7.1pp73.5%

2nd Serve Won50.9%+1.2pp52.1%

Aces / Match1.7+1.73.4

Double Faults / Match3.10.8 fewer2.3

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won44.0%+5.6pp38.4%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted49.6%+8.7pp40.9%

Break Pts Saved54.9%+9.7pp64.6%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won52.1%+0.9pp51.2%

Serve · 1–4

62.7%1st Serve In+4.5pp58.2%

66.4%1st Serve Won+7.1pp73.5%

50.9%2nd Serve Won+1.2pp52.1%

1.7Aces / Match+1.73.4

3.1Double Faults / Match0.8 fewer2.3

Return · 1–0

44.0%Return Pts Won+5.6pp38.4%

Pressure · 1–1

49.6%Break Pts Converted+8.7pp40.9%

54.9%Break Pts Saved+9.7pp64.6%

Points · 1–0

52.1%Total Pts Won+0.9pp51.2%