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Predictions graded

Petr Bar Biryukov #285Russia0Dane Sweeny #124Australia2

Sets 4-6 · 1-6Thu 1 Oct 2026, 04:00 Predictions gradedSecond RoundHard

Predictions6–367%

Edges0–10%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageDane Sweeny · 161 places

Petr Bar Biryukov

Russia

Born 28 February 2002, Bar Biryukov is a left-handed player with a two-handed backhand. Public results data records a career-best singles ranking of No. 267 on 27 October 2025; no reliable stated preferred surface was found.

Current ranking: #285
Peak ranking: #267 · 2025
Current age: 24
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Left handed
Height: 196 cm

Dane Sweeny

Australia

Limited reliable public profile information was available. Use the structured form and match data as the main current context.

Current ranking: #124
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 170 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 30 Sep 2026, 19:20 · Europe/Bucharest

Sweeny is the higher-ranked second seed, but he has won one of eight second sets in completed hard-court matches of this format and has gone 5-8 in his last 13 tracked matches, so Bar Biryukov has a route in.

Sweeny still looks the likelier winner, but the price worth taking is Bar Biryukov at 3.00; Sweeny at 1.33 asks for more than his recent results support.

Context

The US Open was the clearest sign that Sweeny's level sits above his No. 110 ranking, because he beat a top-25 seed over four sets on outdoor hard courts. He arrives at Jingshan with that as his reference point while Bar Biryukov has spent the same weeks on the Challenger circuit. The run also exposed a limit: Sweeny lost his next match to Luciano Darderi in straight sets and then fell in the Hangzhou first round, so the New York fortnight remains an isolated peak rather than a settled level.
- Beat No. 13 seed Lorenzo Musetti 3-6 6-1 6-2 6-2 to reach a first Grand Slam third round at the 2026 US Open
- Advanced from the first round when Corentin Moutet retired after two sets
- Lost the third round to Luciano Darderi in straight sets
ConfirmedSources checked 30 Sep 2026, 19:18 · Europe/BucharestJingshan 2026 fixture pageen.tennistemple.com · 2 Sep 2026
Bar Biryukov's ranking of No. 281 understates a September in which he reached the last four at both Phan Thiet and Guangzhou on Asian hard courts, then beat a No. 408 opponent in straight sets at Jingshan. The Guangzhou run means he arrives match-tight and already adjusted to the region's hard-court conditions rather than stepping in cold. He was stopped in the Phan Thiet semifinal by compatriot Marat Sharipov, so the deeper weeks have come without a final or title to show for them.
- Reached the Guangzhou Challenger semifinal in September 2026
- Reached the Phan Thiet Challenger semifinal, losing to Marat Sharipov
- Beat Masamichi Imamura 7-5 6-4 to open his Jingshan campaign
ConfirmedSources checked 30 Sep 2026, 19:18 · Europe/Bucharest
His first sets in the same sample read the other way: five wins from eight, averaging 5.6 games to 4.6.
Sweeny's opening sets have held up far better, but the second set is where his completed matches have fallen away, and it is the phase that tips slightly to Bar Biryukov. Eight matches is a small sample and two retirements were excluded, so this is a lean rather than a settled pattern.
- Won 1 of 8 second sets in completed best-of-three hard-court matches, 21 July to 30 September 2026
- Averaged 2.9 games won and 5.5 lost in those second sets
- Two retired matches were excluded from the eight-match sample
He also saved 49 of the 71 break points he faced (69%), so the serve has held up under pressure even as his returning games have stalled.
The ace count and first-serve points won are what keep his sets close and long, and they are the part of his game that travels into a match against a higher-ranked opponent. The 27.1% conversion rate means taking a set may depend on him converting more of the chances he creates than he has managed so far.
- Averaged 9.9 aces per match across 15 tracked hard-court matches, 13 August to 30 September 2026
- Won 75.7% of first-serve points (492 of 650) in that sample
- Converted 16 of 59 break points (27.1%) and saved 49 of 71 (69%)

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Sweeny is the higher-ranked player and has beaten top-30 opposition on this surface this season, so he starts the marginal favourite despite a modest recent win count.
- Ranked No. 110 against No. 281 and listed as the second seed at Jingshan
- Beat Omar Jasika 6-2 3-6 6-3 in the Jingshan first round
- Beat No. 13 seed Lorenzo Musetti at the 2026 US Open on the way to a first Grand Slam third round
- Hard-court record in the tracked window is 3-7 in 10 matches, against much stronger fields than this one
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonDane SweenyEstimated chance56%

Games1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' opening sets average comfortably above this line, with tiebreaks a recurring feature of Biryukov's first sets.
- Biryukov's first sets average 11.2 total games
- Sweeny's first sets average 10.3 total games
- Biryukov has had five first-set tiebreaks in 15 hard matches
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance64%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Biryukov's second sets run past this line on average, which just offsets Sweeny's shorter second sets.
- Biryukov's second sets average 10.3 games
- Sweeny's second sets average 8.4 games
- Sweeny has lost second sets by margins such as 2-6 and 0-6 in this sample
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' completed hard-court matches sit right around this line, with opening sets regularly running past ten games.
- Biryukov's tracked hard-court matches average 23.5 total games
- Sweeny's 8 format-matched hard matches average 24 total games
- Biryukov's first sets average 11.2 games, Sweeny's 10.3
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 23.5Estimated chance52%

Sets2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Straight-set results dominate Biryukov's sample and make up half of Sweeny's, so a two-set finish is the more likely shape.
- Biryukov has played 2.2 sets on average, going the distance in only 3 of 15 hard matches
- Sweeny's scorelines show 4 of 8 hard matches decided in straight sets
- Biryukov's hard-court scorelines: six 2-0 wins and six 0-2 defeats
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance63%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Sweeny's first sets are the strongest part of his recent hard-court record, while Biryukov's opening sets are close to even.
- Won 5 of 8 first sets on hard, averaging 5.6 games won to 4.6 lost
- Biryukov is 8-7 in first sets, averaging 5.67 games won to 5.53 lost
- Sweeny is the higher-ranked player and the second seed
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonDane SweenyEstimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Sweeny's second sets have been by far his weakest phase, losing seven of eight with a low games-won average, which tips this set slightly to Biryukov.
- Sweeny has won only 1 of 8 second sets on hard, averaging 2.9 games won and 5.5 lost
- Biryukov is 7-8 in second sets, averaging 4.9 games won to 5.4 lost
- Sweeny's second sets average 8.4 total games, the shortest split in either player's record
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerlostPetr Bar BiryukovEstimated chance52%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players give up enough return points that sets are more likely to be settled by a break than by a tiebreak.
- Both players win fewer than 60% of their first-serve-in points in this sample
- Biryukov converts 27.1% of break points and saves 69%
- Sweeny's second sets have often finished with a break margin rather than a tiebreak
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance52%

Prediction history

Dane Sweeny: 5/7 recent winner projections matched

5 of 7 comparable winner projections favouring Dane Sweeny matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Dane Sweeny7 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

29 Jul·Vancouver - Canada

#122Dane Sweeny2-0#665Duncan Chan

BetBugsDane Sweeny to win·65%

Matched

29 Jul 2026

Vancouver - Canada

#122Dane Sweeny2-0#665Duncan Chan

Dane Sweeny to win

65%probability

Dane Sweeny won

Matched

21 Jul·Bloomfield Hills - USA

#318Andres Martin2-1#122Dane Sweeny

BetBugsDane Sweeny to win·62%

Missed

21 Jul 2026

Bloomfield Hills - USA

#318Andres Martin2-1#122Dane Sweeny

Dane Sweeny to win

62%probability

Andres Martin won

Missed

25 Jun·ATP Wimbledon

#126Dane Sweeny3-2#135Marcelo Tomas Barrios Vera

BetBugsDane Sweeny to win·58%

Matched

25 Jun 2026

ATP Wimbledon

#126Dane Sweeny3-2#135Marcelo Tomas Barrios Vera

Dane Sweeny to win

58%probability

Dane Sweeny won

Matched

24 Jun·ATP Wimbledon

#126Dane Sweeny2-1#225Darwin Blanch

BetBugsDane Sweeny to win·62%

Matched

24 Jun 2026

ATP Wimbledon

#126Dane Sweeny2-1#225Darwin Blanch

Dane Sweeny to win

62%probability

Dane Sweeny won

Matched

22 Jun·ATP Wimbledon

#126Dane Sweeny2-0#226Franco Roncadelli

BetBugsDane Sweeny to win·62%

Matched

22 Jun 2026

ATP Wimbledon

#126Dane Sweeny2-0#226Franco Roncadelli

Dane Sweeny to win

62%probability

Dane Sweeny won

Matched

Previous match context available

Petr Bar Biryukov

8W 7L

7-5 6-4#408Masamichi Imamura 6-4 6-4#132Alexandre Muller 7-6(4) 7-6(5)#195Andre Ilagan 7-5 6-3#238Marat Sharipov (RUS)7-6(3) 4-6 7-6(0)#419Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong

6-3 6-4#601Naoya Honda

6-3 6-4#898Jesse Delaney

7-6(6) 6-7(1) 6-2#466Denis Yevseyev

7-6(3) 6-3#419Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong

6-3 6-4#891Qian Sun

7-5 6-3#649Kokoro Isomura

7-6(3) 6-4#798Tianhui Zhang

6-4 6-7(6) 6-4—James Van Herzeele

6-4 6-4—Zhiheng Xia

6-4 6-2#458Jie Cui

Dane Sweeny

7W 8L

6-2 3-6 6-3#428Omar Jasika 7-6(6) 6-2#172Taro Daniel

6-4 6-3 6-3#19Luciano Darderi

3-6 6-1 6-2 6-2#25Lorenzo Musetti

7-6(4) 6-4 3-0 ret.#70Corentin Moutet

7-5 6-0#93Jesper De Jong

6-7(3) 6-2 7-5#114Christopher O'Connell

1-6 7-6(5) 6-3#120Shintaro Mochizuki

6-3 6-1#316Daniel Milavsky

6-4 6-1#489Duncan Chan

4-6 6-3 7-6(6)#333Andres Martin

7-6(4) 6-3 7-5#126Grigor Dimitrov

4-6 6-4 7-6(5) 0-6 6-2#135Tomas Barrios Vera

2-6 7-6(7) 4-0 ret.#163Darwin Blanch

6-4 6-2#259Franco Roncadelli

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

PBPetr Bar BiryukovBiryukov

Last 15

4–3

9 core stats · 2 even

Dane SweenySweenyDS

Petr Bar Biryukov carries the stronger recent form — Dane Sweeny's route runs through pressure.

Serve · 3–1 · 1 even

1st Serve In58.1%+4.6pp62.7%

1st Serve Won75.7%+10.8pp64.9%

2nd Serve Won53.6%+2.3pp51.3%

Aces / Match9.9+6.03.9

Double Faults / Match4.5—4.3

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won30.7%+9.1pp39.8%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted27.1%+12.6pp39.7%

Break Pts Saved69.0%+19.9pp49.1%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

Total Pts Won49.2%—49.6%

Serve · 3–1 · 1 even

58.1%1st Serve In+4.6pp62.7%

75.7%1st Serve Won+10.8pp64.9%

53.6%2nd Serve Won+2.3pp51.3%

9.9Aces / Match+6.03.9

4.5Double Faults / Match—4.3

Return · 0–1

30.7%Return Pts Won+9.1pp39.8%

Pressure · 1–1

27.1%Break Pts Converted+12.6pp39.7%

69.0%Break Pts Saved+19.9pp49.1%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

49.2%Total Pts Won—49.6%