Andres Martin #318United States22 – 1Dane Sweeny #122Australia1

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Both players frequently engage in extended matches, with over half of their recent contests going over 21.5 games, making a longer match likely.

• Martin's last 15 matches average 22.5 total games per match, with 8 of 15 exceeding 21.5 games.
• Sweeny's last 15 matches average 22.4 total games, with 9 of 15 exceeding 21.5 games.
• Both players have a high rate of three-set matches: Martin 8 of last 15, Sweeny 7 of last 15.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Given the competitive nature of their recent matches, Martin is likely to keep the total games close, covering a +3.5 handicap in most scenarios.

• Martin's last 15 matches show an average game differential of -0.5 per match, with 10 of 15 decided by 3 games or fewer.
• Sweeny's last 15 matches have an average game differential of +0.3, with 9 of 15 decided by 3 games or fewer.
• In their recent losses, both players typically stay within a 3.5-game margin.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.50

The read

Martin's recent trend of dropping first sets against lower-ranked opponents suggests Sweeny, with his strong career first-set conversion, is likely to start better.

• Sweeny's first-set win conversion rate is 89% career, identical to Martin's, but Sweeny has faced tougher recent opponents.
• Martin lost the first set in 3 of his last 5 matches, including to players ranked 780 and 896.
• Sweeny won the first set in 3 of his last 5 matches, all on grass, but his hard-court first-set performance is less consistent.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

With both players showing a high frequency of three-set matches recently, the likelihood of this match going the distance is above even.

• Martin has gone to three sets in 8 of his last 15 matches (53.3%).
• Sweeny has gone to three sets in 7 of his last 15 matches (46.7%).
• Combined, 50% of their recent matches have required a deciding set.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

With both players frequently involved in tiebreaks and their closely matched tiebreak abilities, at least one tiebreak is likely in this competitive matchup.

• Martin has played a tiebreak in 6 of his last 15 matches (40%).
• Sweeny has played a tiebreak in 7 of his last 15 matches (46.7%).
• Both players have career tiebreak win rates near 50% (Martin 47%, Sweeny 51%).