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Predictions graded

Clement Chidekh #205France2Ugo Blanchet #190France1

Sets 6-4 · 3-6 · 6-2Thu 1 Oct 2026, 15:25 Predictions gradedSecond RoundI.hard

Predictions4–544%

Edges1–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageUgo Blanchet · 15 places

Clement Chidekh

France

Career-best singles ranking listed as No. 176. His recorded career results are concentrated on hard and indoor hard courts; no current injury or withdrawal signal was returned by the targeted search.

Current ranking: #205
Peak ranking: #176
Current age: 25
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 180 cm

Ugo Blanchet

France

Reached a career-high No. 139 on 30 September 2024. ATP lists hard as his favourite surface; the supplied structured profile ranks him No. 190.

Current ranking: #190
Peak ranking: #139 · 2024
Current age: 27
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 175 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 30 Sep 2026, 01:23 · Europe/Bucharest

Clement Chidekh meets Ugo Blanchet in the Mouilleron-le-Captif second round with the form gap wide: Chidekh is 12-3 on hard in this window and won his opener 6-1, 6-0, while Blanchet is No. 311 and 6-6 on the surface.

Chidekh is the likely winner. At 1.44 he is the one price here worth taking; Blanchet at 2.6 is one to leave.

Context

Goffin came into the draw as an alternate, so 6-1, 6-0 reads as a clean opening performance against a player ranked far below his old level rather than a win over a seeded opponent. For this fixture the useful part is workload: Chidekh spent close to the minimum possible time on the same indoor hard court and arrives with his serving untested over a long match. The result also continues a strong indoor stretch that had produced a run of straight-set wins before the Rennes quarterfinal loss to Mayot. It is form evidence for the week, not proof of a gap in class against Blanchet.
- Chidekh beat David Goffin 6-1, 6-0 in the first round at Mouilleron-le-Captif
- Goffin entered the singles main draw as an alternate
- The win put Chidekh into the round of 16, where he meets Blanchet
- Chidekh had won seven matches on indoor hard courts before a quarterfinal loss to Harold Mayot at Rennes in mid-September
ConfirmedSources checked 30 Sep 2026, 01:22 · Europe/BucharestTennisActuwww.tennisactu.net · 29 Sep 20262026 Open de Vendéeen.wikipedia.org · 29 Sep 2026
Chidekh's recent sets have mostly been settled by clear margins rather than dragged into tight finishes.
A player who finishes in two sets keeps the match inside his own service rhythm and avoids the longest exchanges; against an opponent whose recent matches often run long, that pattern is the one to watch. The window covers 15 matches in about six weeks, so it describes recent habit rather than a permanent trait.
- 15 completed hard-court matches between 18 August and 29 September 2026, with scorelines of eleven 2-0 wins, one 2-1 win, two 1-2 losses and one 0-2 loss.
- Average 2.2 sets and 19.67 games per match; only two of the 15 matches contained a tiebreak.
- Set 1 record 13-2 and set 2 record 12-3 across the same 15-match window.
Chidekh sits one place below his listed career best of No. 176, so this second-round match is the immediate opportunity for a new mark. That gives the fixture a concrete stake beyond the usual progression through a Challenger draw, and it is the kind of milestone that explains his current competitive continuity. The position is provisional and depends on results elsewhere in the same week, so it describes what is at stake rather than a change in how the match is expected to be played.
- Chidekh was the seventh seed at the 2026 Open de Vendée
- Chidekh was ranked No. 177 during the week of 21 September 2026
- A win in the round of 16 would give him a provisional career-best ranking
ReportedSources checked 30 Sep 2026, 01:22 · Europe/Bucharest2026 Open de Vendéeen.wikipedia.org · 29 Sep 2026
Blanchet has already been a top-140 player, having reached No. 139 two years ago, and the drop of more than 130 places since then is the reason he is the lower-ranked player in this tie despite being two years older than Chidekh. A straight-set win over a qualifier keeps him in the event and avoids the extra time on court that a three-setter would have cost. One such win does not show that the ranking slide has been reversed, and it came against an opponent ranked outside the top 450.
- Blanchet beat qualifier Viktor Durasovic 6-3, 6-4 in the first round
- Blanchet's career-high ranking of No. 139 dates from 30 September 2024
- Blanchet was listed at No. 311
- The win moved him into the round of 16 against Chidekh
ConfirmedSources checked 30 Sep 2026, 01:22 · Europe/BucharestATP Tourwww.atptour.com · 29 Sep 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.44
The read
Chidekh has the better ranking, the stronger serve-and-return numbers and a 12-3 hard-court record, including a 6-1 6-0 win over David Goffin in the first round here.
- Chidekh 12-3 on hard this window; 55% of total points won
- 63.4% first serves in, 71.9% first-serve points won, 45.7% return points won
- Blanchet 6-6 on hard and ranked No. 311; Chidekh No. 177
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonClement ChidekhEstimated chance74%

Games1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Chidekh's recent matches have been short and decisive, which pulls the expected game count down.
- Chidekh's hard-court matches average 19.67 games
- Chidekh won his opener 6-1 6-0
- Blanchet's hard-court matches average 26.75 games
BetBugs · Total GameslostUnder 23.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Chidekh's powerful starts have kept his first sets short, which slightly favours the under.
- Chidekh's set 1 averages 8.73 total games
- Blanchet's set 1 averages 10.25 total games
- Chidekh's set 1 games margin averages 5.87 to 2.87
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostUnder 9.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined second-set average is just under nine and a half games, which marginally favours the under.
- Chidekh's set 2 averages 9.27 total games
- Blanchet's set 2 averages 10.00 total games
- Blanchet's hard-court sample includes two second-set tiebreaks
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance51%

Sets1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Chidekh has started strongly on hard, winning his opening set in most matches with a large games margin.
- Chidekh has won set 1 in 13 of 15 hard-court matches
- Blanchet has won set 1 in 7 of 12 hard-court matches
- Chidekh's set 1 games average 5.87 won to 2.87 lost
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonClement ChidekhEstimated chance71%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Chidekh's second-set record on hard is strong, and he has usually kept control after the opening set.
- Chidekh has won set 2 in 12 of 15 hard-court matches
- Blanchet has won set 2 in 6 of 12 hard-court matches
- Chidekh's set 2 games average 5.73 won to 3.53 lost
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerlostClement ChidekhEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Chidekh has repeatedly won in straight sets, and his recent matches have been short, favouring a two-set finish.
- Chidekh 11 of 15 hard-court wins were 2-0
- Chidekh's sets average 2.20 on hard
- Blanchet's 2-0 wins account for three of 12 hard-court matches
BetBugs · Total SetslostUnder 2.5Estimated chance64%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Chidekh has won the large majority of his matches in straight sets, and his first two sets on hard have been heavily in his favour.
- Chidekh's 15 hard-court matches: 11 wins were 2-0
- Set 1 record 13-2, set 2 record 12-3
- Chidekh's set 1 games average 8.73, set 2 average 9.27
BetBugs · Set BettinglostClement Chidekh 2-0Estimated chance53%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Chidekh's sets are usually decided by clear margins, which reduces the chance of a tiebreak.
- Chidekh has had a tiebreak in only 2 of 15 hard-court matches
- Chidekh's recent sets have mostly been settled by multiple breaks
- Blanchet has had a tiebreak in 5 of 12 hard-court matches
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance62%

Prediction history

Clement Chidekh: 5/7 recent winner projections matched

5 of 7 comparable winner projections favouring Clement Chidekh matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Clement Chidekh7 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

29 Jul·Vancouver - Canada

#301Philip Sekulic0-2#204Clement Chidekh

BetBugsClement Chidekh to win·58%

Matched

29 Jul 2026

Vancouver - Canada

#301Philip Sekulic0-2#204Clement Chidekh

Clement Chidekh to win

58%probability

Clement Chidekh won

Matched

10 Jul·Nottingham - Great Britain

#205Clement Chidekh2-0#654Ivan Ivanov

BetBugsClement Chidekh to win·72%

Matched

10 Jul 2026

Nottingham - Great Britain

#205Clement Chidekh2-0#654Ivan Ivanov

Clement Chidekh to win

72%probability

Clement Chidekh won

Matched

8 Jul·Nottingham - Great Britain

#205Clement Chidekh2-0#618Alberto Barroso Campos

BetBugsClement Chidekh to win·65%

Matched

8 Jul 2026

Nottingham - Great Britain

#205Clement Chidekh2-0#618Alberto Barroso Campos

Clement Chidekh to win

65%probability

Clement Chidekh won

Matched

6 Jul·Nottingham - Great Britain

#205Clement Chidekh2-1#572Maxime Janvier

BetBugsClement Chidekh to win·72%

Matched

6 Jul 2026

Nottingham - Great Britain

#205Clement Chidekh2-1#572Maxime Janvier

Clement Chidekh to win

72%probability

Clement Chidekh won

Matched

22 Jun·ATP Wimbledon

#200Clement Chidekh0-2#646Aziz Dougaz

BetBugsClement Chidekh to win·62%

Missed

22 Jun 2026

ATP Wimbledon

#200Clement Chidekh0-2#646Aziz Dougaz

Clement Chidekh to win

62%probability

Aziz Dougaz won

Missed

Previous match context available

Clement Chidekh

12W 3L

6-1 6-0#461David Goffin 6-4 6-4#191Harold Mayot

6-3 6-4#334Lucas Poullain

7-5 6-4#1532Finn Bass

7-6(5) 6-1#624Samir Banerjee

6-1 6-1#690Sebastian Dominko

6-1 6-3#605Alexander Vasilev

6-1 6-4#891Axel Garcian

6-3 6-2#850Kenny de Schepper

6-4 6-7(4) 6-2#58Arthur Gea

6-2 6-2#833Federico Coria

2-6 7-5 6-1#105Valentin Royer

6-1 6-3#200Lautaro Midon

6-2 6-4#442Kenta Miyoshi

6-3 4-6 6-4#236Jay Clarke

Ugo Blanchet

7W 8L

6-3 6-4#465Viktor Durasovic 6-4 3-6 6-4#173Daniil Glinka

4-1 ret.#116Nicolas Mejia

6-4 6-4#218Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg

7-5 7-6(4)#237Billy Harris

2-6 6-4 7-6(3)#373Daniel Masur

6-3 3-6 6-3#257Daniel Rincon

6-3 6-3#385Laurent Lokoli

6-4 6-4#106Otto Virtanen

6-4 3-6 6-2#134Stefanos Sakellaridis

6-7(3) 6-2 7-5#897James Watt

6-4 4-6 7-6(4)#279Stefano Napolitano

6-7(3) 7-6(6) 7-6(3)#137Rei Sakamoto

6-3 6-3#302Oliver Tarvet

6-7(5) 7-6(2) 6-4#217Felix Gill

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

CCClement ChidekhChidekh

Last 15

5–4

9 core stats · 0 even

Ugo BlanchetBlanchetUB

Clement Chidekh carries the stronger recent form — Ugo Blanchet's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–3

1st Serve In14/15 · 15/1563.4%+9.2pp54.2%

1st Serve Won14/15 · 15/1571.9%+2.7pp74.6%

2nd Serve Won14/15 · 15/1552.4%+6.1pp58.5%

Aces / Match14/15 · 15/153.1+2.45.5

Double Faults / Match14/15 · 15/151.91.0 fewer2.9

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won14/15 · 15/1545.7%+9.6pp36.1%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted14/15 · 15/1546.2%+15.3pp30.9%

Break Pts Saved14/15 · 15/1556.1%+9.5pp65.6%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won14/15 · 15/1555.0%+3.9pp51.1%

Serve · 2–3

63.4%1st Serve In14/15 · 15/15+9.2pp54.2%

71.9%1st Serve Won14/15 · 15/15+2.7pp74.6%

52.4%2nd Serve Won14/15 · 15/15+6.1pp58.5%

3.1Aces / Match14/15 · 15/15+2.45.5

1.9Double Faults / Match14/15 · 15/151.0 fewer2.9

Return · 1–0

45.7%Return Pts Won14/15 · 15/15+9.6pp36.1%

Pressure · 1–1

46.2%Break Pts Converted14/15 · 15/15+15.3pp30.9%

56.1%Break Pts Saved14/15 · 15/15+9.5pp65.6%

Points · 1–0

55.0%Total Pts Won14/15 · 15/15+3.9pp51.1%