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August Holmgren #2452Andrea Guerrieri #164Italy0

Sets 7-5 · 6-1Thu 1 Oct 2026, 14:10 Predictions gradedSecond RoundHard

Predictions3–633%

Edges0–30%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageAndrea Guerrieri · 81 places

August Holmgren

Reached a career-high ATP singles ranking of No. 141 on 22 June 2026. The ITF lists him as right-handed and identifies clay as his preferred surface.

Current ranking: #245
Peak ranking: #141 · 2026
Current age: 28
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 188 cm

Andrea Guerrieri

Italy

Reached a career-high No. 213 on 20 July 2026. He is listed as a left-hander with a two-handed backhand and hard as his preferred surface.

Current ranking: #164
Peak ranking: #213 · 2026
Current age: 27
Preferred surface: Carpet
Hand: Left handed
Height: 180 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 29 Sep 2026, 19:32 · Europe/Bucharest

Guerrieri is the higher-ranked man and won their August hard-court meeting in three sets, but Holmgren arrives off a straight-sets win over top seed Benjamin Bonzi while Guerrieri was pushed to three sets the day before.

Guerrieri is the likelier winner. Both his match win at 1.73 and a Guerrieri 2-1 scoreline at 3.8 offer something; Guerrieri to win the first set at 1.75 does not.

Context

Holmgren arrived at No. 245 with a run of defeats stretching back to late July and took out the highest-ranked player in his section of the draw. The result matters for this fixture because it is the first evidence since July that his hard-court level is competitive with a top-100 opponent, and it came in straight sets without a third-set cost. It also changes the expected ranking dynamic of a round of 16 in which his own ranking would otherwise make him the outsider. The limitation is that one win says nothing yet about sustaining that level across consecutive rounds, which is what the rest of this week demands.
- Bonzi entered the Porto draw as the No. 1 seed and stood at No. 90 in the world.
- Holmgren won 6-3, 6-4 without dropping a set.
- Holmgren had lost his four previous completed matches, stretching back to 23 July.
ConfirmedSources checked 29 Sep 2026, 19:31 · Europe/Bucharest
Guerrieri starts this match roughly twenty hours after finishing a three-set first round, while Holmgren has had two days between matches at the same venue. That is an uneven recovery and preparation window on hard courts, and it is the sort of difference that shows in long rallies and in the closing stages of a deciding set. It does not change the technical matchup, and a 6-0 third set means Guerrieri's own opener was not a physical marathon. The asymmetry sits in the calendar rather than in either player's physical condition.
- Guerrieri's first-round win finished, the day before this round-of-16 match.
- That match went three sets, including a 6-0 deciding set.
- Holmgren's first-round win was completed in straight sets.
- Matusevich had come through qualifying to reach the main draw.
ConfirmedSources checked 29 Sep 2026, 19:31 · Europe/Bucharest
Holmgren has often had to come from behind on this surface, and the split suggests his level holds up as a match settles rather than at the start.
The first-set record is the part of Holmgren's hard-court profile that fits least well with his straight-sets win over Benjamin Bonzi on 28 September. He has been a slow starter across the sample, with five of the 11 matches including a first-set tiebreak, while his 8-3 second-set record is the strongest single split either player owns. Facing a returner of Guerrieri's quality, that second-set strength only matters if Holmgren is still in the match by then.
- 11 hard-court best-of-three matches from 14 July to 28 September 2026: 4-7 in first sets, 8-3 in second sets
- Five of those 11 matches included a first-set tiebreak; six included a tiebreak in the match
- First-set average: 5.5 games won, 5.6 lost; second-set average: 5.6 won, 4.1 lost
- No retirements in the sample; all 11 matches were completed
Guerrieri's recent wins on this surface have been built on winning deciding sets rather than quick, clean afternoons.
The three-set pattern is the most consistent feature of Guerrieri's current hard-court run, and it feeds into this round-of-16 tie: Holmgren's second-set record on the surface is 8-3 while Guerrieri's is 5-8, so a match that reaches a decider is not automatically his. His two 2-0 wins in the same sample show the straight-sets route exists, just less often.
- 13 hard-court best-of-three matches from 4 August to 29 September 2026: 10-4 record
- Scorelines: eight 2-1 wins, two 2-0 wins, two 0-2 losses, one 1-2 loss
- Average of 2.69 sets and 25.2 games per match; four of the 13 matches included a tiebreak
- Second sets: 5-8, the only losing split in the sample

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Set 1 WinnerlostUncertainty band: Slight lean

Andrea Guerrieri

1.75fair 1.75

BetBugs 57% · Market 57.1%

−0.1ppshort

Guerrieri has started matches better than Holmgren over this sample and has the steadier serve numbers in opening sets.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.73
The read
Guerrieri is the higher-ranked player, owns the recent hard-court win in this matchup and has the stronger return numbers on this surface.
- Hard-court last 15: Guerrieri 10-4 (53.1% games won), Holmgren 5-6 (51.0% games won)
- Guerrieri beat Holmgren 6-3, 7-6(4), 6-2 on hard in US Open qualifying on 24 Aug 2026
- Rankings: Guerrieri No. 164 (career best) vs Holmgren No. 245
- Guerrieri hard-court return points won 40.1% vs Holmgren 35.3%
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostAndrea GuerrieriEstimated chance63%

Games1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Holmgren's opening sets run long often, and Guerrieri's return strength makes early breaks hard to hold.
- Holmgren set 1 hard-court average 11.1 total games
- Guerrieri set 1 hard-court average 9.2 total games
- Holmgren set 1 tiebreaks in 5 of 11 hard matches
- Guerrieri set 1 tiebreaks in 1 of 13 hard matches
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second sets have been the most competitive part of both players' hard-court records, with Guerrieri's splits especially tight.
- Guerrieri set 2 hard-court average 10.2 total games
- Holmgren set 2 hard-court average 9.7 total games
- Guerrieri set 2 tiebreaks in 3 of 13 hard matches
- Guerrieri set 2 record 5-8 on hard
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' hard-court matches average around 25 games, and the frequent three-set pattern nudges the total up.
- Holmgren hard-court average total games 26.4
- Guerrieri hard-court average total games 25.2
- Guerrieri three-set matches in 9 of 13 on hard
- Holmgren hard-court average duration 117.6 minutes
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 25.5Estimated chance54%

Sets1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both players routinely go the distance on hard courts, and their August meeting also needed three sets.
- Guerrieri went to three sets in 9 of 13 hard-court matches (2.69 sets average)
- Holmgren went to three sets in 6 of 11 hard-court matches (2.55 sets average)
- Guerrieri's scorelines include 2-1 eight times
- Both players' hard-court average match duration exceeds 115 minutes
BetBugs · Total SetslostOver 2.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.75
The read
Guerrieri has started matches better than Holmgren over this sample and has the steadier serve numbers in opening sets.
- Hard-court set 1 record: Guerrieri 8-5, Holmgren 4-7
- Guerrieri first-serve points won 71.6% on hard
- Guerrieri set 1 average: 4.9 games won, 4.2 lost
- Holmgren set 1 tiebreaks in 5 of 11 hard matches
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostAndrea GuerrieriEstimated chance57%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Holmgren has been notably stronger in second sets across his hard-court sample, while Guerrieri has tended to fade there.
- Hard-court set 2 record: Holmgren 8-3, Guerrieri 5-8
- Holmgren set 2 average: 5.6 games won, 4.1 lost
- Guerrieri set 2 tiebreaks in 3 of 13 hard matches
- Holmgren hard-court total points won 50.3%
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonAugust HolmgrenEstimated chance53%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Neither player's hard-court record leans heavily on tiebreaks, and Guerrieri's return can settle sets earlier.
- Guerrieri tiebreaks in 4 of 13 hard-court matches
- Holmgren's recent straight-set win over Bonzi had no tiebreak
- Guerrieri won recent deciding sets 6-0 and 6-3
- Most sets in both players' samples end with a break
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Guerrieri's serve produces few aces, so even a three-set match should not push the combined count far past Holmgren's share.
- Holmgren hard-court aces 7.0 per match
- Guerrieri hard-court aces 3.7 per match
- Guerrieri's low ace rate limits the combined total
- Both players average under 6.0 double faults per hard match
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableUnder 11.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The two players' double-fault rates combine to roughly the line, with Guerrieri's serve relatively secure.
- Holmgren hard-court double faults 5.5 per match
- Guerrieri hard-court double faults 4.5 per match
- Combined hard-court average sits near 10 per match
- Holmgren first serve in 61% on hard
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableUnder 10.5Estimated chance52%

Previous match context available

August Holmgren

6W 9L

6-3 6-4#90Benjamin Bonzi

6-4 7-5#401Vadym Ursu

7-6(3) 7-5#198Felix Balshaw

6-3 6-7(4) 6-2#164Andrea Guerrieri

6-7(5) 6-3 6-3#207Braden Shick

7-5 1-6 6-4#215Liam Draxl

6-7(8) 6-2 7-6(4)#433Garrett Johns

6-4 3-6 6-3#112Aleksandar Vukic

6-1 6-3#411Justin Boulais

7-6(4) 6-2#356Aidan Mayo

6-7(6) 6-4 7-5#402Yosuke Watanuki

6-3 6-7(3) 6-3#153Tristan Schoolkate

6-4 6-3#286Jerome Kym

7-6(6) 4-6 7-5#208Liam Broady

6-3 6-2#84Roman Safiullin

Andrea Guerrieri

10W 5L

6-4 4-6 6-0#313Anton Matusevich

3-6 7-6(8) 7-6(2)#93Jesper De Jong 6-3 6-7(4) 6-3#168Francesco Maestrelli

6-2 6-2 6-4#10Alex De Minaur

6-2 6-4#423Aziz Dougaz

3-6 6-4 6-1#185Joel Schwaerzler

6-3 6-7(4) 6-2#245August Holmgren

6-3 6-3#158Soon-Woo Kwon

6-4 1-6 6-1#518Alexander Donski

7-6(4) 6-1#185Joel Schwaerzler

0-6 6-3 6-4#173Daniil Glinka

4-6 7-5 6-2#277Michele Ribecai

6-4 4-6 6-2#465Viktor Durasovic

6-1 6-4#415Olle Wallin

6-4 6-4#196Federico Agustin Gomez

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

AHAugust HolmgrenHolmgren

Last 15

4–5

9 core stats · 0 even

Andrea GuerrieriGuerrieriAG

Andrea Guerrieri carries the stronger recent form — August Holmgren's route runs through serve.

Serve · 3–2

1st Serve In15/15 · 14/1559.1%+2.5pp56.6%

1st Serve Won15/15 · 14/1574.3%+3.1pp71.2%

2nd Serve Won15/15 · 14/1550.6%+1.4pp52.0%

Aces / Match15/15 · 14/158.1+4.53.6

Double Faults / Match15/15 · 14/155.91.5 fewer4.4

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won15/15 · 14/1533.3%+6.5pp39.8%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted15/15 · 14/1535.1%+1.0pp36.1%

Break Pts Saved15/15 · 14/1568.7%+3.0pp65.7%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won15/15 · 14/1549.2%+1.8pp51.0%

Serve · 3–2

59.1%1st Serve In15/15 · 14/15+2.5pp56.6%

74.3%1st Serve Won15/15 · 14/15+3.1pp71.2%

50.6%2nd Serve Won15/15 · 14/15+1.4pp52.0%

8.1Aces / Match15/15 · 14/15+4.53.6

5.9Double Faults / Match15/15 · 14/151.5 fewer4.4

Return · 0–1

33.3%Return Pts Won15/15 · 14/15+6.5pp39.8%

Pressure · 1–1

35.1%Break Pts Converted15/15 · 14/15+1.0pp36.1%

68.7%Break Pts Saved15/15 · 14/15+3.0pp65.7%

Points · 0–1

49.2%Total Pts Won15/15 · 14/15+1.8pp51.0%

August Holmgren

Andrea Guerrieri

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Andrea Guerrieri

Andrea Guerrieri 2-1

Andrea Guerrieri

Result0 of 1 landed

Games1 of 3 landed

Sets1 of 3 landed

Match stats1 of 1 landed

August Holmgren

Andrea Guerrieri

Stat Battle