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Predictions graded

Benjamin Bonzi #100France0August Holmgren #2262

Sets 3-6 · 4-6Mon 28 Sept 2026, 12:10 Predictions gradedFirst RoundHard

Predictions3–633%

Edges0–40%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageBenjamin Bonzi · 126 places

Benjamin Bonzi

France

French player who reached a career-high ATP singles ranking of No. 42 in February 2023. Official profile lists him at 183 cm and right-handed with a two-handed backhand.

Current ranking: #100
Peak ranking: #42 · 2023
Current age: 30
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 183 cm

August Holmgren

Reached a career-high ATP singles ranking of No. 141 on 22 June 2026. The ITF lists him as right-handed and identifies clay as his preferred surface.

Current ranking: #226
Peak ranking: #141 · 2026
Current age: 28
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 188 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 28 Sep 2026, 00:11 · Europe/Bucharest

Bonzi, ranked 90th, faces a Holmgren who has not won a singles match since 21 July and has lost five in a row, most recently to opponents outside the top 150.

The likely outcome is a Bonzi win on hard court, though the gap is narrower than the ranking gap suggests. Bonzi to win the match at 1.33 is the one quoted price that leaves a small edge; his opening-set and 2-0 prices at 1.44 and 1.9 offer no clear advantage.

Context

Bonzi's New York run produced two main-draw wins against tour-level opposition, including a straight-sets win over Ignacio Buse after Buse had beaten him in Winston-Salem six days earlier. That establishes a higher recent singles baseline than Holmgren's Challenger results, but the three-week gap and the first-round setting in Porto reduce how directly that form carries over. The loss to Karen Khachanov also came in straight sets against a top-50 opponent, so the run says more about Bonzi's current level than about likely repeatability in Portugal.
- Bonzi beat Alex Molcan 6-4 3-6 6-3 6-2 in the US Open first round.
- Bonzi beat Ignacio Buse 6-2 7-6(4) 6-0 in the US Open second round.
- Karen Khachanov beat Bonzi 6-3 6-2 6-4 in the third round .
- Ignacio Buse beat Bonzi 6-2 4-6 6-1 in the Winston-Salem semi-finals on 28 August 2026.
ConfirmedSources checked 28 Sep 2026, 00:09 · Europe/Bucharest
Both September events ended at the first hurdle, with the Manacor and Istanbul defeats decided by a tiebreak and a late break rather than by lopsided scorelines. That pattern matters against a top-100 opponent because Holmgren's recent sets have been close enough to reach decisive moments but not close enough to convert them into wins. His last completed singles win came on 21 July, leaving little current evidence of a sharper hard-court level entering Porto.
- Felix Balshaw beat Holmgren 7-6(3) 7-5 in the Manacor Round of 32 on 1 September 2026.
- Vadym Ursu beat fifth-seeded Holmgren 6-4 7-5 in the Istanbul first round .
- Holmgren's most recent singles win was a 6-7(8) 6-2 7-6(4) victory over Garrett Johns on 21 July 2026.
ConfirmedSources checked 28 Sep 2026, 00:09 · Europe/Bucharest
Holmgren is the lower-ranked player in this first-round match, 242nd against Bonzi's 90th.
Across those 10 matches Holmgren was slow into the first set but reliably competitive in the second, which is why a short straight-sets win for Bonzi is not the safest reading of the opener. The sample is small and mixes tour levels, so it speaks to how the sets might unfold rather than to who will win.
- Holmgren was 3-7 in first sets across 10 hard-court best-of-three matches between 14 July and 7 September 2026, with five of those opening sets reaching a tiebreak.
- He was 7-3 in second sets over the same 10 matches.
- Those 10 matches produced six that went to a deciding set: four 1-2 defeats, two 2-1 wins, two 2-0 wins and two 0-2 losses.
Bonzi's only competitive appearance between the US Open and Porto was a Davis Cup doubles rubber, so he arrives with recent match play and no additional singles load. The trip from Quebec City to Porto adds travel, but a best-of-three doubles match nine days earlier is not evidence of fatigue. This is a scheduling footnote rather than a factor that is likely to change the first-round assessment.
- Bonzi and Herbert beat Auger-Aliassime and Chan 7-6(4) 6-3 in the Davis Cup doubles .
- The win reduced Canada's lead to 2-1.
- Canada won the tie 3-1.
ConfirmedSources checked 28 Sep 2026, 00:09 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.33
The read
Bonzi has played and beaten much stronger opposition on this surface this month, while Holmgren has lost his last five completed matches, mostly to lower-ranked players.
- Bonzi is No. 90, Holmgren No. 242
- Bonzi 9-6 on hard in his last 15, Holmgren 4-6 in 10 on the surface
- Bonzi won 61.5% of sets on hard in that window, Holmgren 46.2%
- Bonzi reached the US Open third round this month; Holmgren's last singles win was 21 July
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostBenjamin BonziEstimated chance76%

Games2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' opening sets on hard routinely reach at least ten games.
- Bonzi's set-one average is 10.25 games with 3 tiebreaks in 12
- Holmgren's set-one average is 11.3 games with 5 tiebreaks in 10
- Both players serve well enough to hold through ten games
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance63%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The second set is more competitive on both players' hard-court numbers, which usually means ten or more games.
- Bonzi's set-two games average 10.67 across 12 hard matches
- Holmgren's set-two games average 9.7 across 10 hard matches
- Holmgren's set-two record on hard is 7-3
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance59%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
If Bonzi wins in straight sets the match typically lands well below the line.
- Bonzi's hard matches average 25.0 total games
- Holmgren's average 27.1 games in 10 hard matches
- Bonzi is favoured in 62% of modelled two-set outcomes
BetBugs · Total GameswonUnder 26.5Estimated chance57%

Sets1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.44
The read
Bonzi has started strongly on this surface while Holmgren has regularly conceded the opening set.
- Bonzi won set one in 8 of 12 hard best-of-three matches
- Holmgren lost set one in 7 of 10
- Bonzi 9-6 overall on hard in last 15
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostBenjamin BonziEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.44
The read
Bonzi's second-set record on this surface is the strongest part of his recent hard-court form.
- Bonzi won set two in 9 of 12 hard best-of-three matches
- Holmgren lost set two in only 3 of 10
- Bonzi 61.5% sets won on hard
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerlostBenjamin BonziEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
A clear favourite against a lower-ranked opponent points to a straight-sets result more often than not.
- Bonzi's hard best-of-three matches average 2.42 sets
- Holmgren's average 2.6 sets in 10 hard matches
- Bonzi 2-0 in 6 of his 12 hard best-of-three matches
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.90
The read
Bonzi has mostly closed out hard-court wins without dropping a set, and the ranking gap points to a short match.
- Bonzi's 12 hard best-of-three matches: 6 wins 2-0, 1 win 2-1
- Holmgren's 10 hard best-of-three matches: 4 decided in straight sets
- Bonzi 61.5% sets won on hard
BetBugs · Set BettinglostBenjamin Bonzi 2-0Estimated chance53%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players serve strongly enough that at least one set in this match is likely to reach a tiebreak.
- Bonzi's hard best-of-three matches had a tiebreak in 7 of 12
- Holmgren's had a tiebreak in 6 of 10
- Both average over 7 aces per match on hard
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostYesEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The two players' combined ace rate sits just below the line over a likely short match.
- Bonzi averages 7.2 aces per match on hard
- Holmgren averages 7.3 aces per match in 10 hard matches
- Their combined hard-court average is about 14.5 aces
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableUnder 15.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined double-fault rate is close to the line, and a straight-sets match would keep it below.
- Bonzi averages 4.5 double faults per match on hard
- Holmgren averages 5.7 double faults per match on hard
- Combined hard-court average is about 10.2
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableUnder 10.5Estimated chance52%

Previous match context available

Benjamin Bonzi

9W 6L

6-3 6-2 6-4#26Karen Khachanov

6-2 7-6(4) 6-0#35Ignacio Buse

6-4 3-6 6-3 6-2#96Alex Molcan

6-2 4-6 6-1#35Ignacio Buse

7-6(5) 6-4#40Botic Van De Zandschulp

6-1 6-1#82Rinky Hijikata

2-6 7-6(5) 6-3#49Quentin Halys

6-4 7-6(7)#73Kamil Majchrzak

7-6(2) 7-5#42Luca Van Assche

7-6(4) 6-3#418Justin Boulais

2-6 7-6(2) 7-6(7)#147Dusan Lajovic

6-1 4-6 6-2#54Yannick Hanfmann

7-5 6-2#129Hugo Dellien

5-7 7-6(7) 7-5#258Jay Dylan Hara Friend

7-5 6-4#148Michael Mmoh

August Holmgren

6W 9L

6-4 7-5#403Vadym Ursu

7-6(3) 7-5#195Felix Balshaw

6-3 6-7(4) 6-2#169Andrea Guerrieri

6-7(5) 6-3 6-3#202Braden Shick

7-5 1-6 6-4#209Liam Draxl

6-7(8) 6-2 7-6(4)#442Garrett Johns

6-4 3-6 6-3#91Aleksandar Vukic

6-1 6-3#418Justin Boulais

7-6(4) 6-2#356Aidan Mayo

6-7(6) 6-4 7-5#400Yosuke Watanuki

6-3 6-7(3) 6-3#152Tristan Schoolkate

6-4 6-3#285Jerome Kym

7-6(6) 4-6 7-5#203Liam Broady

6-3 6-2#102Roman Safiullin

6-4 7-5#286Alastair Gray

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

BBBenjamin BonziBonzi

Last 15

5–4

9 core stats · 0 even

August HolmgrenHolmgrenAH

Benjamin Bonzi carries the stronger recent form — August Holmgren's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–3

1st Serve In58.9%+0.9pp59.8%

1st Serve Won75.3%+2.0pp73.3%

2nd Serve Won47.9%+2.7pp50.6%

Aces / Match7.2+1.08.2

Double Faults / Match4.51.2 fewer5.7

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won38.1%+4.7pp33.4%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted36.8%+1.3pp35.5%

Break Pts Saved60.0%+8.0pp68.0%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won50.7%+1.7pp49.0%

Serve · 2–3

58.9%1st Serve In+0.9pp59.8%

75.3%1st Serve Won+2.0pp73.3%

47.9%2nd Serve Won+2.7pp50.6%

7.2Aces / Match+1.08.2

4.5Double Faults / Match1.2 fewer5.7

Return · 1–0

38.1%Return Pts Won+4.7pp33.4%

Pressure · 1–1

36.8%Break Pts Converted+1.3pp35.5%

60.0%Break Pts Saved+8.0pp68.0%

Points · 1–0

50.7%Total Pts Won+1.7pp49.0%

Benjamin Bonzi

August Holmgren

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Benjamin Bonzi

Benjamin Bonzi

Benjamin Bonzi 2-0

Benjamin Bonzi

Result0 of 1 landed

Games2 of 3 landed

Sets1 of 4 landed

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Benjamin Bonzi

August Holmgren

Stat Battle