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Predictions graded

Andrea Guerrieri #169Italy2Francesco Maestrelli #171Italy1

Sets 6-3 · 6-7 · 6-3Mon 21 Sept 2026, 13:00 Predictions gradedFirst RoundHard

Predictions5–456%

Edges2–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageAndrea Guerrieri · 2 places

Andrea Guerrieri

Italy

Ranked No. 169 and listed at 180 cm, he is the left-hander of this pairing and is coached by Giampaolo Coppo. Limited reliable public profile information was available for this fixture.

Current ranking: #169
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Left handed
Height: 180 cm

Francesco Maestrelli

Italy

Ranked No. 171 and listed at 196 cm, he plays right-handed with a two-handed backhand and is coached by Gabrio Castrichella. Limited reliable public profile information was available for this fixture.

Current ranking: #171
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 196 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 21 Sep 2026, 10:42 · Europe/Bucharest

Two players separated by two ranking places, No. 169 and No. 171, meet in the Saint-Tropez first round, where Guerrieri's 8-3 hard-court record and Maestrelli's 42.4% second-serve points won point the same way.

Guerrieri at 1.65 is about the right price rather than a bargain; the one worthwhile quote is Guerrieri to win 2-1 in sets at 4.25. Maestrelli at 2.1 asks for more than the record offers.

Context

Maestrelli has been the slower starter on hard courts and the more competitive player once a match settles.
That split matters against a returner as steady as Guerrieri: the opening set is the one Maestrelli most often loses, and across the nine matches he averaged 4.3 games won and 5.6 lost in it. It also means a Guerrieri lead after one set would not settle the match, since Maestrelli's second-set record sits above .500 in the same sample.
- Hard-court set 1 across 9 tracked matches (11 Aug-18 Sep 2026): 3 wins, 6 losses, 4.33 games won and 5.56 lost per set.
- Hard-court set 2 across the same 9 matches: 5 wins, 4 losses, 5.33 games won and 4.67 lost per set.
- Three set-1 tiebreaks and three set-2 tiebreaks in those nine matches; average 2.44 sets and 23.6 total games per match.
Guerrieri has been winning on hard courts, but rarely quickly.
He won eight of those ten matches yet only twice in straight sets, so a two-set afternoon has been the exception in this best-of-3 hard-court sample rather than the norm. His first and second sets were both split 5-5, which says the advantage has come from lasting longer rather than from dominating a set.
- Hard-court scorelines across 10 tracked matches (4-27 Aug 2026): two 2-0 wins, six 2-1 wins, two 0-2 losses.
- Average 2.6 sets and 23.6 total games per match, with only two of the ten matches containing a tiebreak.
- Set 1 split 5-5 and set 2 split 5-5 in the same sample; this ten-match best-of-3 group is a subset of his wider 11-match hard-court record.
Maestrelli's latest completed outing finished with a 0-6 opening set.
It is one match rather than a run, and the sample size is a single result, but it is the freshest evidence in the record and it came against a player ranked below him. Read plainly, it is a caution against treating his overall hard-court numbers as a floor.
- 18 September 2026: lost 0-2 (3-12 games) to Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg, ranked 217, on indoor hard.
- Set scores 0-6, 3-6; the match was completed, not a retirement.
Guerrieri's only completed match since 27 August came at a far higher level than this first round.
The result was a defeat, so it does nothing for his case, but the opponent sits well above this field and the match is not part of the ten-match hard-court set sample that drives his record here. It mostly tells us he has played very little competitive tennis in the three weeks before Saint-Tropez.
- 2 September 2026: lost 0-3 (8-18 games) to Alex De Minaur, ranked 9, on hard.
- Set scores 2-6, 2-6, 4-6; the match was completed, not a retirement.
- His ten-match hard-court set sample runs 4-27 August 2026 and does not include this match.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.65
The read
Guerrieri has the stronger hard-court win record and a clear edge in second-serve points, the area where Maestrelli gives most ground.
- Hard-court record: Guerrieri 8-3 in 11 matches, Maestrelli 4-5 in 9
- Hard-court points won: Guerrieri 51.2%, Maestrelli 48.4%
- Maestrelli wins only 42.4% of second-serve points on hard
- Rankings almost level: 169 vs 171
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonAndrea GuerrieriEstimated chance61%

Games1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
With the expected set length near nine games, a two-set match lands comfortably under this line and that outcome is only slightly less likely than three sets.
- Guerrieri hard-court total games average 23.6
- Maestrelli hard-court total games average 23.6
- Maestrelli set2 games average 10.0, set1 9.9
- Two-set matches in the sample average about nine games per set
BetBugs · Total GameslostUnder 23.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second sets in these players' hard-court matches average close to ten games, giving the over a slight edge.
- Guerrieri set2 games average 9.7 on hard
- Maestrelli set2 games average 10.0 on hard
- Maestrelli has three set-2 tiebreaks in nine hard matches
- Both players' set-2 games averages sit above nine
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The two set-1 game averages bracket this line, so a 6-4 or longer opening set is roughly as likely as a 6-3 or shorter one.
- Guerrieri set1 games average 9.1 on hard
- Maestrelli set1 games average 9.9 on hard
- Tiebreaks in set1: Guerrieri one in ten, Maestrelli three in nine
- Guerrieri break points saved on hard: 65.4%
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance51%

Sets2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Guerrieri has a better set-1 win share and returns well enough to pressure Maestrelli's weaker second serve early.
- Guerrieri hard-court set1 record: 5 wins, 5 losses
- Maestrelli hard-court set1 record: 3 wins, 6 losses
- Guerrieri return points won on hard: 40.6%
- Guerrieri first-serve points won on hard: 70.6%
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonAndrea GuerrieriEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The second-set records are nearly level, but Guerrieri's overall hard-court points edge gives him a small advantage if a second set is played.
- Guerrieri hard-court set2 record: 5 wins, 5 losses
- Maestrelli hard-court set2 record: 5 wins, 4 losses
- Guerrieri total points won on hard: 51.2%
- Guerrieri break points converted on hard: 37.4%
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerlostAndrea GuerrieriEstimated chance57%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' hard-court matches regularly run to a deciding set, and neither has dominated the other's level of opponent.
- Guerrieri hard-court sets average 2.6
- Guerrieri hard-court scorelines include six 2-1 results in ten matches
- Maestrelli hard-court sets average 2.44
- Both players have more three-setters than straight-set results across their hard-court scorelines
BetBugs · Total SetswonOver 2.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' return games create enough break chances that most sets can be decided without a tiebreak.
- Guerrieri hard-court matches with a tiebreak: two of ten
- Guerrieri set-1 tiebreaks: one in ten
- Maestrelli second-serve points won on hard: 42.4%
- Guerrieri break points converted on hard: 37.4%
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostNoEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Guerrieri's low ace rate means the combined total usually depends on Maestrelli alone staying near his average.
- Combined hard-court ace average about 10.7 per match
- Guerrieri aces per hard match: 4.0
- Guerrieri aces per match overall: 3.3
- Maestrelli aces per hard match: 6.7
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableUnder 11.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Only Guerrieri double-faults at a high rate, and the combined hard-court average sits just below this line.
- Maestrelli double faults per hard match: 2.3
- Guerrieri double faults per hard match: 4.0
- Combined hard-court average about 6.3 per match
- Maestrelli double faults per match overall: 3.1
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableUnder 6.5Estimated chance53%

Previous match context available

Andrea Guerrieri

10W 5L

6-2 6-2 6-4#9Alex De Minaur

6-2 6-4#426Aziz Dougaz

3-6 6-4 6-1#185Joel Schwaerzler

6-3 6-7(4) 6-2#242August Holmgren

6-3 6-3#158Soon-Woo Kwon

6-4 1-6 6-1#523Alexander Donski

7-6(4) 6-1#185Joel Schwaerzler

0-6 6-3 6-4#173Daniil Glinka

4-6 7-5 6-2#263Michele Ribecai

6-4 4-6 6-2#467Viktor Durasovic

6-1 6-4#402Olle Wallin

6-4 6-4#200Federico Agustin Gomez

6-3 7-6(5)#244Luca Nardi

6-1 6-2#129Hugo Dellien

6-4 6-4#310Oriol Roca Batalla

Francesco Maestrelli

5W 10L

6-0 6-3#217Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg

4-6 7-6(3) 6-3#521Yanis Ghazouani Durand

6-4 7-6(3)#353Arthur Nagel

6-0 2-6 6-1#235Maks Kasnikowski

6-7(2) 6-1 6-4#453Alafia Ayeni

6-2 6-2#370Juan Pablo Ficovich

6-7(2) 6-3 6-1#98Toby Samuel

6-4 7-6(4)#130Alexei Popyrin

7-6(6) 6-4#111Bu Yunchaokete

7-6(5) 4-6 6-3#196Juan Pablo Varillas

6-4 6-0#183Lukas Neumayer

6-3 6-7(8) 6-3#363Ognjen Milic

4-6 7-6(2) 6-4#241Max Basing

7-6(6) 7-5#179Alexis Galarneau

7-6(4) 3-6 6-1#61Arthur Gea

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

AGAndrea GuerrieriGuerrieri

Last 15

3–6

9 core stats · 0 even

Francesco MaestrelliMaestrelliFM

Francesco Maestrelli carries the stronger recent form — Andrea Guerrieri's route runs through serve.

Serve · 1–4

1st Serve In57.0%+9.0pp66.0%

1st Serve Won69.1%+1.6pp70.7%

2nd Serve Won51.8%+6.6pp45.2%

Aces / Match3.3+4.78.0

Double Faults / Match3.70.6 fewer3.1

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won40.3%+4.8pp35.5%

Pressure · 0–2

Break Pts Converted35.5%+5.7pp41.2%

Break Pts Saved61.8%+3.7pp65.5%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won50.5%+1.7pp48.8%

Serve · 1–4

57.0%1st Serve In+9.0pp66.0%

69.1%1st Serve Won+1.6pp70.7%

51.8%2nd Serve Won+6.6pp45.2%

3.3Aces / Match+4.78.0

3.7Double Faults / Match0.6 fewer3.1

Return · 1–0

40.3%Return Pts Won+4.8pp35.5%

Pressure · 0–2

35.5%Break Pts Converted+5.7pp41.2%

61.8%Break Pts Saved+3.7pp65.5%

Points · 1–0

50.5%Total Pts Won+1.7pp48.8%

Andrea Guerrieri

Francesco Maestrelli

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Andrea Guerrieri

Andrea Guerrieri 2-1

Result1 of 1 landed

Games1 of 3 landed

Sets2 of 3 landed

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Andrea Guerrieri

Francesco Maestrelli

Stat Battle