Alejandro Davidovich Fokina #29Spain11 – 2Matteo Berrettini #40Italy2

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.65

The read

Davidovich Fokina is match-sharp and serving strongly on this surface, while Berrettini's recent hard-court results are below .500.

• Davidovich Fokina is 3-0 on hard courts in his last three completed matches, taking 6 of 7 sets.
• On that hard-court run he won 54% of total points, 77.7% of first-serve points and saved 8 of 10 break points.
• Berrettini is 2-3 on hard courts in his last five completed matches and has no serve or return metrics in this sample.
• The head-to-head is 1-1, with Berrettini winning their most recent meeting on hard court at the 2022 US Open.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Second sets have been the longest part of both players' hard-court matches, with tiebreaks common for Berrettini.

• Davidovich Fokina's second sets average 10.7 total games on hard courts.
• Berrettini's second sets average 11.0 total games, including two tiebreaks.
• Both players won all three second sets in their hard-court sample.
• Neither player's second-set average falls below 10.5 games.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Davidovich Fokina has been winning sets by clear margins on hard courts, which keeps the match total down unless it stretches.

• Davidovich Fokina's three hard-court matches averaged 22.7 games and only one went to three sets.
• He won his last two hard-court matches 13-6 and 12-8 in games.
• Berrettini's sample has no games-won figures in his overall 14-match window.
• Both players' set-one game averages sit at 9.0 and 9.3 games.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Both players' recent first sets have finished around nine games, favouring the under side.

• Davidovich Fokina's hard-court first sets average 9.0 games.
• Berrettini's hard-court first sets average 9.3 games.
• No first-set tiebreaks appear in either player's three-match hard-court sample.
• Berrettini's first-set losses have often come with few games won.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.73

The read

Davidovich Fokina has started these hard-court matches better, while Berrettini has repeatedly dropped the opening set.

• Davidovich Fokina has won the opening set in 2 of his last 3 hard-court matches.
• He averages 5.3 games won and 3.7 lost in first sets on this surface.
• Berrettini has lost the opening set in all three matches of his hard-court set sample.
• Berrettini averages 3.3 games won and 6.0 lost in first sets on this surface.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Both players have been strong in second sets, so this is close to a coin flip with a slight overall edge to Davidovich Fokina.

• Davidovich Fokina won all three second sets in his hard-court set sample.
• He averages 6.3 games won and 4.3 lost in second sets.
• Berrettini also won all three second sets in his hard-court sample.
• Berrettini's second-set figures average 6.7 games won and 4.3 lost.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.20

The read

Berrettini has been repeatedly dragged into deciding sets, and his serve makes sets hard to close out.

• All three of Berrettini's completed hard-court matches in the set sample went to a deciding set.
• Davidovich Fokina's three hard-court matches produced two straight-set wins and one three-setter.
• Berrettini's set sample shows two tiebreaks across three matches.
• The pair's 2022 hard-court meeting went the full five sets.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Berrettini's serve keeps sets close and Davidovich Fokina has been holding comfortably, both of which raise the chance of a tiebreak.

• Two of Berrettini's three hard-court matches in the set sample included a tiebreak.
• Davidovich Fokina's three hard-court matches produced no tiebreaks.
• Berrettini's second sets average 11.0 games with two tiebreaks.
• Davidovich Fokina won 77.7% of first-serve points on this surface, making his service games hard to break.