ChinaATP ChengduFinishedFeatured

Predictions graded

Nikoloz Basilashvili #145Georgia1Alejandro Davidovich Fokina #29Spain2

Sets 6-4 · 4-6 · 3-6Mon 28 Sept 2026, 09:12 Predictions gradedSemi-FinalHard

Predictions6–367%

Edges1–150%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageAlejandro Davidovich Fokina · 116 places

Nikoloz Basilashvili

Georgia

Basilashvili reached a career-high singles ranking of No. 16 in May 2019. The supplied current ranking is No. 132; no reliable current source established a specific fitness-related reason for that gap.

Current ranking: #145
Peak ranking: #16 · 2019
Current age: 34
Preferred surface: Carpet
Hand: Right handed
Height: 185 cm

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

Spain

Spanish right-hander, currently ranked No. 29 and the second seed at Chengdu. He has not competed since 16 July, making this his first tournament in more than two months.

Current ranking: #29
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 180 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 27 Sep 2026, 14:04 · Europe/Bucharest

Chengdu's semi-final pairs Basilashvili's five-match, no-set-dropped run with Davidovich Fokina, the No. 29 seed who has also won both his matches in straight sets since returning from two months out.

Davidovich Fokina is the likelier winner, but 1.5 on him to win asks for 66.7% where the case sits nearer 61%, and 1.5 on straight sets is priced similarly above the mark. Neither reviewed price is worth taking.

Context

Basilashvili, 34, is back in the last four of a tour event for the first time in four years, after a long spell outside the top level. He beat Brooksby, ranked No. 77, in the quarter-final following earlier wins over Miomir Kecmanovic and Botic van de Zandschulp, so his No. 145 ranking understates the level he has produced this week. The limitation sits in the schedule rather than the form: this is his fifth match in six days, against an opponent who has played twice.
- Basilashvili defeated Jenson Brooksby 6-4 7-6(4) in the Chengdu quarter-final
- Basilashvili, 34, is ranked No. 145 at this event and entered the main draw through qualifying
ConfirmedSources checked 27 Sep 2026, 14:03 · Europe/BucharestTennis Majors match pagewww.tennismajors.com · 27 Sep 2026
Davidovich Fokina had not played a competitive match since 16 July, a gap that took in the hard-court swing and the US Open, so Chengdu is the first evidence of his level in more than two months. He has answered the immediate question with two straight-set wins that put him in the semi-final on far less court time than Basilashvili. Nothing this week has pushed him past two sets, which makes this the first time since his return that his condition will be asked to hold beyond a short match.
- Davidovich Fokina had not played a tour match since 16 July 2026 before Chengdu
- He beat Juan Manuel Cerundolo 6-4 6-4 in the round of 16
- He beat Alexandre Muller 6-1 7-5 in the quarter-final
- The second seed entered the main draw with a bye
ConfirmedSources checked 27 Sep 2026, 14:03 · Europe/BucharestTennis Majors match pagewww.tennismajors.com · 27 Sep 2026
Five wins without dropping a set gives a more reliable reading of Basilashvili's week than his ranking: he has taken out Kecmanovic, ranked No. 60, and van de Zandschulp, ranked No. 40, in straight sets. That route has cost him two extra qualifying matches, so the semi-final is his fifth match in six days. The gap in the evidence is the opponent's level: none of those wins came against a top-30 player, and the second seed, ranked No. 29, is the first of that standard he will face.
- Basilashvili beat Hanlei Lu 6-2 6-0 and Federico Cina 6-3 6-2 in qualifying on 22 and 23 September 2026
- Basilashvili beat Miomir Kecmanovic 7-6 6-4 on 24 September and Botic van de Zandschulp 6-4 7-5 on 25 September 2026
- Basilashvili has won five matches in Chengdu without losing a set
ConfirmedSources checked 27 Sep 2026, 14:03 · Europe/BucharestTennis Majors match pagewww.tennismajors.com · 27 Sep 2026
One completed meeting from five years ago is thin evidence for this semi-final, but it is the clearest counter to the idea that the match will be settled in straight sets: the only time these two played, it ran to a third set and a deciding tiebreak. Basilashvili lost the first set 0-6 and still won. It says nothing reliable about either player's current level.
- Only recorded head-to-head meeting: 23 September 2021, won by Basilashvili 0-6 6-4 7-6(4)
- That match is the single completed meeting between the two players in the supplied record

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 2

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

1.50fair 1.64

BetBugs 61% · Market 66.7%

−5.7ppshort

He is the higher-ranked, more consistent player and has won both Chengdu matches in straight sets, conceding just 14 games.

Total SetslostUncertainty band: Lean

Under 2.5

1.50fair 1.69

BetBugs 59% · Market 66.7%

−7.7ppshort

Every recent completed hard-court match for either player has finished in two sets.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.50
The read
He is the higher-ranked, more consistent player and has won both Chengdu matches in straight sets, conceding just 14 games.
- Ranked No. 29, the second seed
- 12-3 in the last 15 completed matches overall, 56.7% of games won
- 2-0 on hard at Chengdu, 25 games won to 14 lost, no sets dropped
- Only two hard-court matches in the current-surface sample after a two-month absence
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonAlejandro Davidovich FokinaEstimated chance61%

Games3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' second sets average above ten games, with Basilashvili's sample including two tiebreaks.
- Basilashvili set 2 average 10.29 total games across 7 matches
- Davidovich Fokina set 2 average 11 total games across 2 matches
- Two second-set tiebreaks in Basilashvili's sample
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The two samples sit right on the line, with Basilashvili's matches averaging just above it.
- Basilashvili hard-court total average 20.1 games across 7 matches
- Davidovich Fokina hard-court total average 19.5 games across 2 matches
- Both Chengdu wins for Davidovich Fokina finished inside 20 games
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 19.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Basilashvili's opening sets have averaged close to ten games and include a tiebreak.
- Basilashvili set 1 average 9.86 total games across 7 matches
- Davidovich Fokina set 1 average 8.5 total games across 2 matches
- One first-set tiebreak in Basilashvili's sample
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance52%

Sets1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.50
The read
Every recent completed hard-court match for either player has finished in two sets.
- Basilashvili: 5 straight-set wins and 2 straight-set losses on hard
- Davidovich Fokina: both Chengdu matches won 2-0
- Nine combined hard-court matches, none reaching a third set
BetBugs · Total SetslostUnder 2.5Estimated chance59%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
He closed out both Chengdu matches in the second set with a small but consistent game margin.
- Set 2 record 2-0 on hard at Chengdu
- Averages 6.5 games won and 4.5 lost in set 2
- No second-set tiebreaks in the sample
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonAlejandro Davidovich FokinaEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
He has taken the opening set comfortably in both Chengdu matches and is the stronger player on ranking.
- Set 1 record 2-0 on hard at Chengdu
- Averages 6 games won and 2.5 lost in set 1
- No first-set tiebreaks in the sample
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostAlejandro Davidovich FokinaEstimated chance57%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Most of these two players' hard-court sets have been settled without a tiebreak.
- Basilashvili: 4 of 7 hard-court matches with no tiebreak
- Davidovich Fokina: no tiebreaks in 2 Chengdu matches
- Combined 3 tiebreaks in 9 hard-court matches
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance55%

Prediction history

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina: 12/15 recent winner projections matched

12 of 15 comparable winner projections favouring Alejandro Davidovich Fokina matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Alejandro Davidovich Fokina15 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

16 Jul·ATP Umag

#101Alex Molcan2-1#20Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

BetBugsAlejandro Davidovich Fokina to win·65%

Missed

16 Jul 2026

ATP Umag

#101Alex Molcan2-1#20Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina to win

65%probability

Alex Molcan won

Missed

15 Jul·ATP Umag

#99Marco Trungelliti0-2#20Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

BetBugsAlejandro Davidovich Fokina to win·65%

Matched

15 Jul 2026

ATP Umag

#99Marco Trungelliti0-2#20Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina to win

65%probability

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina won

Matched

3 Jul·ATP Wimbledon

#23Alejandro Davidovich Fokina3-0#76Marton Fucsovics

BetBugsAlejandro Davidovich Fokina to win·72%

Matched

3 Jul 2026

ATP Wimbledon

#23Alejandro Davidovich Fokina3-0#76Marton Fucsovics

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina to win

72%probability

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina won

Matched

1 Jul·ATP Wimbledon

#23Alejandro Davidovich Fokina3-0#53Fabian Marozsan

BetBugsAlejandro Davidovich Fokina to win·62%

Matched

1 Jul 2026

ATP Wimbledon

#23Alejandro Davidovich Fokina3-0#53Fabian Marozsan

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina to win

62%probability

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina won

Matched

29 Jun·ATP Wimbledon

#25Alejandro Davidovich Fokina3-0#45Juan Manuel Cerundolo

BetBugsAlejandro Davidovich Fokina to win·78%

Matched

29 Jun 2026

ATP Wimbledon

#25Alejandro Davidovich Fokina3-0#45Juan Manuel Cerundolo

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina to win

78%probability

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina won

Matched

Head-to-Head

1-0 (1 meetings)

W0-6 6-4 7-6(4)Nikoloz Basilashvili#145vAlejandro Davidovich Fokina#29Sep 23, 2021

1 total meetings

Previous match context available

Nikoloz Basilashvili

7W 8L

6-4 7-6(4)#77Jenson Brooksby

6-4 7-5#40Botic Van De Zandschulp

7-6(3) 6-4#60Miomir Kecmanovic 6-3 6-2#170Federico Cina

6-2 6-0—Hanlei Lu

2-6 7-6(6) ret.#600Naoya Honda

6-3 7-6(1)#675Seongchan Hong

6-4 6-4#68Jaime Faria

6-7(8) 6-3 6-4#291Mili Poljicak

6-3 3-6 6-2#751Michael Vrbensky

6-4 6-2#354Tiago Torres

7-5 3-6 6-4#52Thiago Agustin Tirante

6-4 7-6(4)#89Jan Choinski

6-3 6-7(5) 6-2#117Vilius Gaubas

6-1 2-1 ret.#229Raul Brancaccio

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

12W 3L

6-1 7-5#135Alexandre Muller

6-4 6-4#53Juan Manuel Cerundolo

3-6 6-1 6-2#96Alex Molcan

6-4 7-5#87Marco Trungelliti

6-7(4) 7-6(6) 6-3 6-7(2) 6-1#5Felix Auger Aliassime

7-6(3) 6-2 6-3#118Marton Fucsovics

6-3 6-0 6-3#59Fabian Marozsan

6-4 6-4 7-6(2)#53Juan Manuel Cerundolo

7-6(4) 6-3#57Ethan Quinn

5-7 6-2 6-4#59Fabian Marozsan

6-3 6-3#127Grigor Dimitrov

6-4 7-5#99Adam Walton

6-3 7-6(4)#18Tommy Paul

6-4 6-3#70Corentin Moutet

7-6(6) 6-2#39Cameron Norrie

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

NBNikoloz BasilashviliBasilashvili

Last 15

1–6

9 core stats · 2 even

Alejandro Davidovich FokinaFokinaAF

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina carries the stronger recent form — Nikoloz Basilashvili's route runs through serve.

Serve · 1–3 · 1 even

1st Serve In15/15 · 14/1551.7%+14.4pp66.1%

1st Serve Won15/15 · 14/1574.7%—75.4%

2nd Serve Won15/15 · 14/1547.2%+12.4pp59.6%

Aces / Match15/15 · 14/157.3+2.05.3

Double Faults / Match15/15 · 14/155.13.6 fewer1.5

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

Return Pts Won15/15 · 14/1538.6%—39.0%

Pressure · 0–2

Break Pts Converted15/15 · 14/1539.1%+1.3pp40.4%

Break Pts Saved15/15 · 14/1562.6%+8.2pp70.8%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won15/15 · 14/1550.2%+3.6pp53.8%

Serve · 1–3 · 1 even

51.7%1st Serve In15/15 · 14/15+14.4pp66.1%

74.7%1st Serve Won15/15 · 14/15—75.4%

47.2%2nd Serve Won15/15 · 14/15+12.4pp59.6%

7.3Aces / Match15/15 · 14/15+2.05.3

5.1Double Faults / Match15/15 · 14/153.6 fewer1.5

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

38.6%Return Pts Won15/15 · 14/15—39.0%

Pressure · 0–2

39.1%Break Pts Converted15/15 · 14/15+1.3pp40.4%

62.6%Break Pts Saved15/15 · 14/15+8.2pp70.8%

Points · 0–1

50.2%Total Pts Won15/15 · 14/15+3.6pp53.8%