Alexandre Muller #136France00 – 2Alejandro Davidovich Fokina #29Spain2

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Davidovich Fokina ranks far higher and served strongly in his Chengdu opener, while Muller's winning run has come against lower-ranked opposition.

• No. 29 vs No. 135; 11-4 in his last 15 and the highest-ranked player left in Chengdu
• Beat Cerundolo 6-4, 6-4 in his only completed hard-court match since 16 July, winning 78.9% of first-serve points and 54.5% of total points
• Muller is 6-3 on hard in this window but his four Chengdu wins came against opponents ranked 170-269
• No previous meeting between the two players

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

The second set follows the overall match lean toward the higher-ranked player, whose serving held up in his only outing.

• Davidovich Fokina won set two 6-4 in his Chengdu opener
• Muller's hard-court set-2 record is 5-4, with 4.78 games won and 3.56 lost per set
• Muller's set-2 games average of 8.3 is his lowest-scoring set
• Match-winner estimate of 66% for Davidovich Fokina

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.40

The read

Recent hard-court matches for both players have mostly ended in straight sets, and both are coming off short outings.

• Six of Muller's nine hard-court matches this window finished 2-0
• Muller's hard-court matches averaged 2.11 sets
• Davidovich Fokina won his Chengdu opener 6-4, 6-4
• Muller's four Chengdu wins have produced only one dropped set

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

The higher-ranked player is favoured to take the opening set, though his long absence adds uncertainty.

• Davidovich Fokina won set one 6-4 in his only completed hard-court match in this window
• Muller's hard-court set-1 record is 6-3 with 5.33 games won and 5.11 lost
• Muller has won the opening set in all four Chengdu matches, against players ranked 170-269
• Ranking gap of 106 places

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Recent sets have mostly been settled with breaks rather than shootouts, so a tiebreak-free match is the more likely outcome.

• Ten completed hard-court matches across both players this window produced two tiebreaks
• Muller's set-1 and set-2 games averages show breaks being exchanged
• Only one of Muller's four Chengdu wins went to a tiebreak (7-6(3))
• Davidovich Fokina's Chengdu match had no tiebreak

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Neither player has been producing big ace counts in short matches, keeping the combined total near or below the line.

• Muller 4.3 aces per hard-court match; Davidovich Fokina 4 aces in his Chengdu match
• Both players' recent matches on this surface lasted about 83 minutes
• Muller hit 39 aces across nine hard-court matches
• No three-set match between them is guaranteed by recent form

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Both players have kept double faults low recently, with Davidovich Fokina especially clean in his return match.

• Davidovich Fokina averages 1.5 double faults per match and none in his Chengdu match
• Muller averages 2.2 per hard-court match (20 in nine matches)
• Both players' short recent matches limited double-fault opportunities
• No three-set match is certain