Nicolas Mejia #168Colombia33 – 0Tristan Schoolkate #147Australia0

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.30

The read

Schoolkate's superior grass-court pedigree and serve advantage give him a slight edge in this Bo5 Wimbledon qualifier, despite Mejia's recent H2H win on clay.

• Schoolkate has a 33-7 career grass record (82.5% win rate) vs Mejia's 3-2 (60%), with 2026 grass form of 3-2 vs 3-1.
• Schoolkate's serve is stronger on grass: 10.1% career ace rate and 74.2% first-serve win rate vs Mejia's 4.8% and 67.6%.
• H2H is 1-1, but Schoolkate won their only grass meeting in 2024 (7-6, 7-6) and Mejia's win was on clay.
• Schoolkate's recent qualifying path was smoother: straight-set wins over Monday and Evans, while Mejia needed three sets vs Rocha.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.80

The read

With two evenly matched players and strong serving on grass, a Bo5 match is likely to feature multiple tight sets, pushing the total games over 38.5.

• Both players have shown tight matches on grass: Mejia's last 3 grass matches averaged 22.3 games per Bo3 set, projecting to ~37+ games in Bo5.
• Schoolkate's last 5 completed matches averaged 21.4 games in Bo3, also projecting to over 38.5 in Bo5.
• H2H matches have been close: 2026 clay match had 34 games in 3 sets, 2024 grass match had 26 games in 2 tight sets.
• Both have solid hold rates on grass (Mejia 60.1% break save, Schoolkate 61.3%), suggesting extended sets.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

The match is likely to be closely contested, with both players holding serve well on grass, making at least 4 sets probable.

• In their two H2H meetings, one went to a deciding set (3 sets in Bo3), and the other was two tight sets.
• Both players have similar break-point save rates (~60-61%) and moderate return points won (~38-40%), indicating few breaks.
• Schoolkate's last 5 matches include two three-setters, and Mejia's last 5 include two three-setters.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Schoolkate's strong first-set record and recent grass form suggest a marginal edge to take the opener, though Mejia is also competitive early.

• Schoolkate has won his last 4 first sets on grass (vs Evans, Monday, Tarvet, Jubb), while Mejia has won 3 of his last 4 first sets on grass.
• Schoolkate's first-set win conversion rate is 89% career, indicating he starts matches strongly.
• In their 2024 grass meeting, Schoolkate won the first set in a tiebreak.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Given the strong serving and close H2H history, at least one tiebreak is highly likely in this Bo5 match.

• Both players have a 51% career tiebreak win rate, indicating frequent tiebreaks.
• In their two H2H matches, there have been 3 tiebreaks in 5 sets (60% of sets).
• On grass, serve dominance often leads to tiebreaks; Schoolkate's last 5 matches include 2 tiebreaks, Mejia's include 2.
• Schoolkate's 2024 grass win over Mejia featured two tiebreaks.