Tristan Schoolkate #123Australia22 – 1Paul Jubb #325United Kingdom1

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.50

The read

Schoolkate's superior grass-court pedigree, higher ranking, and fresher legs give him a clear edge, supported by his stronger serve stats and title defense context.

• Schoolkate won Ilkley 2025 and has a 30-5 career grass record (85.7% win rate), while Jubb is 24-14 on grass (63.2%).
• Schoolkate holds a 74.3% first-serve win rate vs Jubb's 69.6%, and a higher ace rate (10% vs 4.9%).
• Schoolkate is ranked 123 vs Jubb's 325, and Schoolkate's recent form includes wins over top-200 opponents, while Jubb's best recent win is over #154 Lajal in qualifying.
• Jubb has played two tough three-set qualifying matches in the last two days, while Schoolkate is fresh with no Ilkley qualifying mileage.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Jubb's tendency to play long matches and Schoolkate's competitive recent form point to a match that exceeds 21.5 games, especially if it goes three sets.

• Jubb's last two matches both went three sets with 34 and 28 total games, showing his matches are extended.
• Schoolkate's recent matches average 22.5 total games, with 6 of his last 10 going over 21.5 games.
• Both players have similar break point save rates (~61%), suggesting breaks may be limited, leading to longer sets.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Jubb's competitiveness and Schoolkate's narrow recent win margins indicate Jubb is likely to cover the +3.5 game handicap, even in a loss.

• Jubb has covered a +3.5 game handicap in 4 of his last 5 matches, including both qualifying wins.
• Schoolkate's average margin of victory in his last 5 wins is 3.2 games, suggesting Jubb can stay within 3.5 games.
• Jubb's return points win rate (42%) is higher than Schoolkate's (38%), which could help him keep games close.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

The combination of Jubb's recent long first sets and Schoolkate's solid serving suggests the first set will exceed 9.5 games.

• Jubb's last 5 first sets have averaged 10.4 games, with 4 of 5 going over 9.5.
• Schoolkate's first sets average 9.8 games in his last 10 matches, with 6 going over 9.5.
• Both players have strong first-serve win rates, which can lead to holds and extended sets.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.55

The read

Schoolkate's high first-set win rate and Jubb's recent slow starts, combined with the fatigue factor, make Schoolkate likely to take the opener.

• Schoolkate's first-set win conversion rate is 89% career, and he has won the first set in 8 of his last 10 matches.
• Jubb has lost the first set in 3 of his last 5 matches, including both qualifying matches this week.
• Schoolkate's serve is more dominant on grass, with a 74.3% first-serve win rate, which helps him start sets strongly.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.10

The read

Jubb's recent pattern of three-set matches and Schoolkate's occasional vulnerability make a deciding set more likely than not, despite the fatigue factor.

• Jubb has played three sets in 4 of his last 6 matches, including both qualifying matches this week.
• Schoolkate has gone to three sets in 5 of his last 15 matches, showing he can be pushed.
• Both players have deciding set win rates above 55%, indicating they compete well in third sets.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Schoolkate's high ace rate on grass, combined with Jubb's occasional aces, makes over 8.5 total aces likely in a match that could extend to three sets.

• Schoolkate averages 10% aces per serve, which over a typical Bo3 match (20+ service games) projects to ~8-10 aces.
• Jubb's ace rate is lower (4.9%), but he can contribute 2-3 aces, pushing the total over 8.5.
• Grass courts typically yield higher ace counts, and Schoolkate's career ace total (2872 in 403 matches) averages ~7.1 per match.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced

The read

The combined double fault rates suggest a total around 5-6, making over 5.5 a borderline call, but the grass surface and potential match length tilt it slightly over.

• Schoolkate's double fault rate is 5.8%, which over 20+ service games could yield 5-6 double faults.
• Jubb's double fault rate is 4.6%, adding another 3-4, pushing the total near or over 5.5.
• Both players have similar double fault rates, and grass can sometimes lead to more double faults due to aggressive serving.