Aleksandar Vukic #95Australia00 – 2Evan Zhu #600United States2

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.25

The read

Vukic is a former top-50 player with a much bigger serve than Zhu and has been competing against far stronger opposition, so he should control most service games.

• Vukic is ATP No. 112; Zhu is No. 502
• Vukic won 76.7% of first-serve points across 15 hard-court matches (683 first serves)
• Zhu's 10-5 recent hard-court run includes wins over opponents ranked 404, 443 and 889
• Vukic beat Ryan Seggerman 6-4 6-4 in the opening qualifying round at Jingshan

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Both players have been involved in several long matches, and a deciding set would push the total comfortably past the line.

• Vukic's last 15 hard-court matches average 23.6 total games; Zhu's average 21.1
• Vukic's recent game totals include 31, 52 and 32
• Vukic's hard-court matches average 111.6 minutes

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Second sets tend to be the shorter phase for both players, and tiebreaks are uncommon there.

• Vukic's second sets average 9.3 games, Zhu's 9.3
• Vukic's second sets produced only 2 tiebreaks in 14 matches
• Zhu's second sets produced only 1 tiebreak in 15 matches

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Vukic still holds the stronger serve and overall point-winning record, which should carry into the second set.

• Vukic has won 9 of 14 second sets on hard courts
• Vukic won 55.2% of second-serve points on hard courts
• Zhu has won 12 of 15 second sets on this surface

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

The ranking gap points to Vukic winning in straight sets as the single most likely outcome.

• Vukic has won seven of his last 14 hard-court matches 2-0
• Zhu has been beaten 0-2 in two of his last 15 hard-court matches
• Vukic won his opening qualifying match in straight sets

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.73

The read

When Vukic has won on hard courts recently he has usually done it in straight sets, and his serve should keep Zhu from breaking often.

• Seven of Vukic's last 14 hard-court matches finished 2-0 in his favour, against two 2-1 wins
• Vukic has won 11 of 14 first sets on this surface
• Vukic's serve holds a large edge over Zhu's return level

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Breaks are frequent enough in these matches that sets are more likely to be decided by a break than a tiebreak.

• Only 8 of 29 combined hard-court matches included a tiebreak
• Zhu has had one tiebreak in 15 hard-court matches
• Zhu's break-point conversion rate is 48.2%

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Vukic's high ace rate combined with any third set makes the combined total likely to clear this line.

• Vukic averages 8.9 aces per hard-court match; Zhu averages 2.8
• Vukic has served 134 aces in 15 matches (683 first serves)
• Vukic has played three sets in 6 of his last 14 hard-court matches

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Zhu's double-fault rate is high, and pressure from Vukic's return game can add to both players' totals.

• Zhu averages 3.0 double faults per hard-court match; Vukic averages 1.6
• Zhu has hit 45 double faults in 15 matches
• Zhu faces a server ranked far above his recent opponents