ChinaATP HangzhouFinishedFeatured

Predictions graded

Aleksandar Vukic #95Australia1Kyrian Jacquet #121France2

Sets 6-7 · 6-3 · 3-6Wed 23 Sept 2026, 08:26 Predictions gradedFirst RoundHard

Predictions4–640%

Edges0–50%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageAleksandar Vukic · 26 places

Aleksandar Vukic

Australia

Vukic, 30, is a right-hander who lists hard courts as his favourite surface. He reached a career-high No. 48 in August 2023.

Current ranking: #95
Peak ranking: #48 · 2023
Current age: 30
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 188 cm

Kyrian Jacquet

France

Structured profile lists him at No. 121 with a right-handed, two-handed-backhand game. Reliable public profile details for the remaining fields were not confirmed in this review.

Current ranking: #121
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 175 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 22 Sep 2026, 23:12 · Europe/Bucharest

Their only previous meeting went Vukic's way 7-6(5) 6-1, and both men arrive in Hangzhou without a completed match since late August.

Vukic's serve and hard-court record make him the likelier winner, and 2.00 for him to win, 3.20 for a 2-0 win, 2.20 for him to win by two games or more and 1.90 for the first set are all priced with value. Under 2.5 sets at 1.55 asks more than that straight-sets record supports.

Context

Vukic's serve is the clearest single advantage he holds in this matchup.
Nearly four of every five first serves came back as points for Vukic, and 9.6 aces a match is a real source of free points in the tight sets his record is full of. Jacquet, by contrast, won 71.6% of first-serve points on hard courts and lands under half of his first serves, so he starts more points on the back foot. The caveat is Vukic's 58.8% first-serve rate and 54.1% of second-serve points won, which leaves returners a route in whenever the first serve misses.
- Across 15 matches, Vukic won 531 of 673 first-serve points (78.9%) and struck 144 aces, 9.6 per match.
- He landed 58.8% of first serves (673 of 1144) and won 54.1% of second-serve points (255 of 471) in the same sample.
Five weeks separate that meeting from this one, and both men return to the same outdoor hard-court conditions in Hangzhou. Vukic won in straight sets without losing serve, the only completed evidence between the two and the main reference point for how this match-up is likely to be fought. The caution is that a single meeting at Challenger level is thin evidence for a 250-level fixture, and Jacquet's results either side of it alternated between wins and losses.
- Vukic beat Jacquet 7-6(5) 6-1 in straight sets on 19 August 2026 on hard court in Quebec City
- Vukic was not broken in that meeting, which was the only completed match between the two
ConfirmedSources checked 22 Sep 2026, 23:10 · Europe/Bucharest
Hangzhou is one of two Chinese ATP 250s that open the post-US Open Asian swing, played on hard courts across six days. The draw put two unseeded players together in the first round, so there is no seeded opponent or qualifying route behind either of them. The open question is match sharpness rather than surface comfort, because neither has completed a competitive match since late August.
- The Hangzhou Open main draw lists Vukic against Jacquet in the first round
- The event runs 21-27 September 2026 on hard courts in Hangzhou, with $1,039,090 in prize money
- Neither player has completed a match since late August
ConfirmedSources checked 22 Sep 2026, 23:10 · Europe/BucharestTennistaletennistale.com · 22 Sep 2026Tennis.comwww.tennis.com · 22 Sep 2026
A first-round win converts immediately into a second-round match against the tournament's third seed, so this opener carries a defined reward. Etcheverry sits in the same section of the draw, which means both players can see the path before they step on court. The third seed also arrives with a bye and no completed match in Hangzhou, a scheduling difference that will apply equally to whoever advances here.
- The Hangzhou draw gives third seed Tomas Etcheverry a bye into the second round against the winner of Vukic-Jacquet
- Daniil Medvedev and Andrey Rublev are the top two seeds at the event
ConfirmedSources checked 22 Sep 2026, 23:10 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 4

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.00
The read
Vukic wins a bigger share of games and points on this surface and holds a clear serve advantage, having also beaten Jacquet in straight sets last month.
- Vukic is 10-5 in his last 15 hard-court matches with 54.8% of games won (206/376) and 52.5% of points won (1231/2343).
- Vukic won 78.9% of first-serve points on hard courts against Jacquet's 71.6%, and averages 9.6 aces to Jacquet's 4.0.
- Jacquet is 4-4 on hard courts in this window with 49.7% of points won (569/1145) and 4.0 double faults per match.
- Vukic won the pair's only meeting 7-6(5) 6-1 on hard court on 19 August 2026 without losing serve.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostAleksandar VukicEstimated chance62%

Games3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' opening sets average more than ten games, so a score of 6-4 or longer is the more likely shape.
- Opening sets in Vukic's hard-court matches average 10.4 games.
- Jacquet's opening sets on hard courts average 10.5 games.
- Five of Vukic's 14 hard-court matches had a tiebreak, which usually comes in the opening set.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance57%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.20
The read
Vukic wins nearly two thirds of his points on serve and takes a majority of his hard-court matches in straight sets, where a two-game cushion usually follows.
- Eight of Vukic's 14 hard-court best-of-three matches were straight-sets wins, which always carry a margin of at least two games.
- Vukic has won 54.8% of hard-court games (206/376) across 15 matches.
- He beat Jacquet 7-6(5) 6-1 on 19 August 2026, a six-game margin.
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostAleksandar Vukic -1.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' recent matches sit right on this line, and a deciding set would push the total comfortably above it.
- Vukic's hard-court best-of-three matches average 23.1 total games; Jacquet's average 22.9.
- Six of Vukic's 14 hard-court matches contained a tiebreak, which adds games.
- Vukic's hard-court matches average 107.2 minutes and Jacquet's 96.6 minutes.
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 23.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second sets are the shorter part of both players' matches, and their previous meeting produced a 6-1 set.
- Jacquet's second sets on hard courts average 9.0 games.
- Vukic's second sets on hard courts average 9.5 games.
- Vukic's 6-1 second set against Jacquet in August finished well under the line.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance52%

Sets1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.55
The read
Straight-sets finishes dominate both players' hard-court records, including their only previous meeting.
- Nine of Vukic's 14 hard-court best-of-three matches finished in straight sets.
- Five of Jacquet's eight hard-court best-of-three matches finished in straight sets.
- Their August meeting was over in two sets, 7-6(5) 6-1.
BetBugs · Total SetslostUnder 2.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.90
The read
Vukic starts hard-court matches strongly, winning the large majority of opening sets, and he edged the first set against Jacquet in August.
- Vukic has won the opening set in 12 of his 14 hard-court best-of-three matches.
- He took the first set 7-6(5) against Jacquet in their only meeting.
- Jacquet has split opening sets 4-4 on hard courts in this window.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostAleksandar VukicEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Vukic's second-set record on hard courts is positive and he closed out Jacquet convincingly in that set last month.
- Vukic is 9-5 in second sets across his 14 hard-court best-of-three matches.
- He took the second set 6-1 against Jacquet in August.
- Jacquet is 5-3 in second sets on hard courts in this window.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonAleksandar VukicEstimated chance58%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Most of both players' recent hard-court matches finished without a tiebreak, and Jacquet's matches in particular rarely reach one.
- Eight of Vukic's 14 hard-court best-of-three matches had no tiebreak.
- Six of Jacquet's eight hard-court best-of-three matches had no tiebreak.
- Jacquet's second sets on hard courts have produced no tiebreaks in eight matches.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostNoEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined ace rate sits just under this line, with Jacquet contributing very few aces.
- Vukic and Jacquet combine for 13.6 aces per hard-court match on recent averages.
- Jacquet has produced only 32 aces in eight hard-court matches.
- Vukic's own average of 9.6 aces per match already includes his longer three-set contests.
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableUnder 14.5Estimated chance57%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Vukic's very low double-fault rate offsets Jacquet's, keeping the combined average just below this line.
- Combined double-fault averages for the two players come to 5.3 per hard-court match.
- Vukic has committed only 20 double faults in 15 hard-court matches.
- Jacquet's 32 double faults came across eight hard-court matches.
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableUnder 5.5Estimated chance53%

Prediction history

Aleksandar Vukic: 8/11 recent winner projections matched

8 of 11 comparable winner projections favouring Aleksandar Vukic matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Aleksandar Vukic11 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

1 Aug·ATP Montreal

#105Aleksandar Vukic2-0#138Marcelo Tomas Barrios Vera

BetBugsAleksandar Vukic to win·62%

Matched

1 Aug 2026

ATP Montreal

#105Aleksandar Vukic2-0#138Marcelo Tomas Barrios Vera

Aleksandar Vukic to win

62%probability

Aleksandar Vukic won

Matched

29 Jul·ATP Washington

#105Aleksandar Vukic1-2#15Lorenzo Musetti

BetBugsAleksandar Vukic to win·55%

Missed

29 Jul 2026

ATP Washington

#105Aleksandar Vukic1-2#15Lorenzo Musetti

Aleksandar Vukic to win

55%probability

Lorenzo Musetti won

Missed

28 Jul·ATP Washington

#105Aleksandar Vukic2-0#76Zachary Svajda

BetBugsAleksandar Vukic to win·72%

Matched

28 Jul 2026

ATP Washington

#105Aleksandar Vukic2-0#76Zachary Svajda

Aleksandar Vukic to win

72%probability

Aleksandar Vukic won

Matched

26 Jul·ATP Washington

#102Aleksandar Vukic2-0#167Alex Bolt

BetBugsAleksandar Vukic to win·72%

Matched

26 Jul 2026

ATP Washington

#102Aleksandar Vukic2-0#167Alex Bolt

Aleksandar Vukic to win

72%probability

Aleksandar Vukic won

Matched

19 Jul·Granby - Canada

#113Aleksandar Vukic2-1#192August Holmgren

BetBugsAleksandar Vukic to win·58%

Matched

19 Jul 2026

Granby - Canada

#113Aleksandar Vukic2-1#192August Holmgren

Aleksandar Vukic to win

58%probability

Aleksandar Vukic won

Matched

Aleksandar Vukic

10W 5L

6-4 6-7(5) 6-4 3-6 6-4#133Rei Sakamoto

6-4 6-4#134Stefanos Sakellaridis

7-6(5) 6-1#107Kyrian Jacquet

6-7(3) 6-3 6-4#143Mark Lajal

6-3 7-6(4)#166Darwin Blanch

6-7(2) 7-6(5) 6-4#67Daniel Altmaier

7-6(4) 6-2#137Tomas Barrios Vera

6-3 5-7 6-3#24Lorenzo Musetti

6-3 6-1#81Zachary Svajda

6-0 6-1#165Alex Bolt

6-3 6-3#426Aziz Dougaz

6-4 3-6 6-3#242August Holmgren

6-4 1-6 6-1#61Arthur Gea

7-6(2) 7-6(2)#179Alexis Galarneau

6-3 6-3#720Nicolas Arseneault

Kyrian Jacquet

7W 8L

6-4 4-6 6-4#426Aziz Dougaz

6-4 6-3#197Lautaro Midon

7-6(5) 6-1#91Aleksandar Vukic

6-2 6-4#58Adolfo Daniel Vallejo

7-5 6-4#146Nicolai Budkov Kjaer

6-2 6-1#231Billy Harris

6-7(1) 6-3 6-2#122Gabriel Diallo

4-6 6-4 6-3#109Alexander Shevchenko

3-6 6-4 7-6(4)#27Alexander Blockx

1-6 6-1 7-5#41Daniel Merida Aguilar

6-4 3-6 6-3#193Taro Daniel

6-1 6-2—Goncalo Da Rosa Castro

6-2 6-3#87Marco Trungelliti

6-3 6-4 7-6(5)#21Alexander Bublik

6-3 6-4 7-6(2)#117Vilius Gaubas

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

AVAleksandar VukicVukic

Last 15

7–2

9 core stats · 0 even

Kyrian JacquetJacquetKJ

Aleksandar Vukic carries the stronger recent form — Kyrian Jacquet's route runs through pressure.

Serve · 5–0

1st Serve In58.8%+7.6pp51.2%

1st Serve Won78.9%+7.7pp71.2%

2nd Serve Won54.1%+2.7pp51.4%

Aces / Match9.6+4.94.7

Double Faults / Match1.32.8 fewer4.1

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won37.1%+1.6pp38.7%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted35.5%+3.8pp39.3%

Break Pts Saved64.6%+4.4pp60.2%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won52.5%+2.3pp50.2%

Serve · 5–0

58.8%1st Serve In+7.6pp51.2%

78.9%1st Serve Won+7.7pp71.2%

54.1%2nd Serve Won+2.7pp51.4%

9.6Aces / Match+4.94.7

1.3Double Faults / Match2.8 fewer4.1

Return · 0–1

37.1%Return Pts Won+1.6pp38.7%

Pressure · 1–1

35.5%Break Pts Converted+3.8pp39.3%

64.6%Break Pts Saved+4.4pp60.2%

Points · 1–0

52.5%Total Pts Won+2.3pp50.2%

Aleksandar Vukic

Kyrian Jacquet

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Aleksandar Vukic

Aleksandar Vukic

Aleksandar Vukic -1.5

Aleksandar Vukic 2-0

Under 2.5

Result0 of 1 landed

Games3 of 4 landed

Sets1 of 3 landed

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Aleksandar Vukic

Kyrian Jacquet

Stat Battle