United StatesATP WashingtonFinished

Predictions graded

Aleksandar Vukic #102Australia2Alex Bolt #167Australia0

Sets 6-0 · 6-1Sun 26 Jul 2026, 14:00 Predictions gradedQ3Hard

Predictions5–363%

Edges5–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageAleksandar Vukic · 65 places

Aleksandar Vukic

Australia

Reached career-high No. 48 on 14 August 2023. He won the hard-court Granby Challenger in July 2026 before entering Washington qualifying at No. 102.

Current ranking: #102
Peak ranking: #48 · 2023
Current age: 30
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 188 cm

Alex Bolt

Australia

Reached career-high No. 125 on 4 March 2019. Tennis Australia's July 2026 profile lists him at No. 167 and confirms his left-handed game.

Current ranking: #167
Peak ranking: #125 · 2019
Current age: 33
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Left handed
Height: 183 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 26 Jul 2026, 08:37 · Europe/Bucharest

Vukic's dominant hard-court form (6-0 record, 80% sets won) and superior return game give him a clear edge over Bolt, who has been inconsistent on the surface.

The best betting value lies in Vukic to win the match at 1.60 (9.5-point edge) and Vukic 2-0 in set betting at 2.38 (13-point edge), with under 22.5 total games also offering a solid 7.4-point edge.

Context

Vukic is 6-0 on hard courts in his last 15 matches, winning 80% of sets and 56.4% of games.
- He won the Granby Challenger title on July 19, beating three top-230 opponents in the final rounds.
- His first-serve points won on hard courts is 79.6%, and he has taken the opening set in five of his last six hard-court matches.
Bolt lost his last two hard-court matches before Washington, both in straight sets, and is 4-4 on hard courts in his last 15 matches.
- His opening qualifying win over James McCabe lasted over two hours and was decided in two tiebreaks.
- He returns less than 24 hours later for this qualifying final, while Vukic's previous match was a 72-minute straight-set win.
The only prior H2H match was on indoor hard in 2021, with Vukic winning 7-5, 6-4.
- Vukic won 86% of first-serve points and saved 70% of break points in that match.
- Bolt's return points won was just 25%, and he converted only 20% of break points.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.60
The read
Vukic's dominant recent hard-court form (6-0 record, 80% sets won) and superior surface fit give him a clear edge over Bolt, who has been inconsistent on hard courts.
- Vukic is 6-0 on hard courts in the last 15 matches, winning 80% of sets and 56.4% of games.
- Bolt is 4-4 on hard courts in the last 15 matches, with a 50% win rate and 49.8% games won.
- Vukic holds a 1-0 H2H edge, winning 7-5 6-4 on indoor hard in 2021.
- Vukic's recent hard-court form includes a Challenger title run, while Bolt lost his last two hard-court matches before Washington.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonAleksandar VukicEstimated chance72%

Games1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.90
The read
Vukic's efficiency in recent hard-court wins and Bolt's vulnerability in straight-set losses point to a match finishing under 22.5 games.
- Vukic's last 6 hard-court matches averaged 20.8 total games.
- Bolt's last 8 hard-court matches averaged 22.6 total games, but 4 of his last 5 losses were in straight sets with under 22 games.
- Vukic's dominant form suggests a potential straight-set win, keeping total games low.
BetBugs · Total GameswonUnder 22.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
With both players holding serve well on hard courts, the first set is likely to be competitive and exceed 9.5 games.
- Vukic's last 6 hard-court matches: 4 had set 1 over 9.5 games.
- Bolt's last 8 hard-court matches: 5 had set 1 over 9.5 games.
- Both players have strong serve numbers on hard courts recently (Vukic 79.6% first-serve points won, Bolt 73.5%).
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Set 2 tends to be competitive in their recent hard-court matches, making over 9.5 games a reasonable expectation.
- Vukic's last 6 hard-court matches: 4 had set 2 over 9.5 games.
- Bolt's last 8 hard-court matches: 5 had set 2 over 9.5 games.
- Even in Vukic's straight-set wins, set 2 often remains close (e.g., 6-4, 7-6).
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance52%

Sets3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.60
The read
Vukic's strong start tendency on hard courts, combined with Bolt's recent struggles in opening sets, makes Vukic the likely set 1 winner.
- Vukic has won the first set in 5 of his last 6 hard-court matches.
- Bolt has lost the first set in 3 of his last 4 hard-court matches.
- Vukic's first-set win conversion rate is 86% career, indicating strong front-running ability.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonAleksandar VukicEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.38
The read
Vukic's straight-set trend on hard courts and Bolt's inability to force deciders in losses make a 2-0 Vukic win the most likely set outcome.
- Vukic has won 5 of his last 6 hard-court matches in straight sets.
- Bolt has lost 4 of his last 5 hard-court matches in straight sets.
- Vukic's 80% sets-won rate on hard courts in the last 15 matches indicates strong set dominance.
BetBugs · Set BettingwonAleksandar Vukic 2-0Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.90
The read
The match is likely to finish in straight sets given Vukic's dominance and Bolt's recent pattern of straight-set losses on hard courts.
- Vukic's last 6 hard-court matches: 5 ended in straight sets.
- Bolt's last 8 hard-court matches: 5 ended in straight sets.
- Vukic's superior form reduces the likelihood of a deciding set.
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players are strong servers on hard courts, and their combined ace averages comfortably exceed 12.5.
- Vukic averages 8.5 aces per match on hard courts in the last 15 matches.
- Bolt averages 6.6 aces per match on hard courts in the last 15 matches.
- Combined, they average 15.1 aces per match on hard courts recently.
BetBugs · Total AcesOver 12.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have low double-fault rates on hard courts, making under 3.5 total double faults likely.
- Vukic averages 0.7 double faults per match on hard courts in the last 15 matches.
- Bolt averages 1.6 double faults per match on hard courts in the last 15 matches.
- Combined, they average 2.3 double faults per match on hard courts recently.
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsUnder 3.5Estimated chance58%

Head-to-Head

1-0 (1 meetings)

W7-5 6-4Aleksandar Vukic#102vAlex Bolt#167Sep 24, 2021

1 total meetings

Aleksandar Vukic

10W 5L

6-3 6-3#568Aziz Dougaz

6-4 3-6 6-3#227August Holmgren

6-4 1-6 6-1#129Arthur Gea

7-6(2) 7-6(2)#162Alexis Galarneau

6-3 6-3#718Nicolas Arseneault

6-4 5-7 7-6(4)#203Liam Broady

7-6(4) 6-3#203Liam Broady

7-6(7) 6-1 6-1#74Jenson Brooksby

7-5 6-1#74Jenson Brooksby

7-6(5) 4-6 6-4#333Hamish Stewart

7-5 6-3#204Harry Wendelken

7-6(7) 6-1#204Harry Wendelken

6-3 6-2#82James Duckworth

2-6 6-4 6-3#171Jack Pinnington Jones

6-3 6-3 7-6(4)#37Raphael Collignon

Alex Bolt

6W 9L

7-6(6) 7-6(2)#240James McCabe

7-6(3) 7-5#430Oliver Tarvet

6-7(5) 7-5 6-3#79Mattia Bellucci

4-6 6-1 7-6(3)—Jamie Mackenzie

6-4 6-4#209Keegan Smith

6-4 6-7(5) 6-3#36Arthur Fery

6-3 6-0#79Mattia Bellucci

6-0 6-1#172Lukas Neumayer

6-7(7) 6-3 6-3#324Fajing Sun

6-2 3-6 7-6(5)#99Adam Walton

7-6(5) 7-6(5)#209Keegan Smith

6-2 6-3#254Giles Hussey

6-3 7-6(2)#891Aoran Wang

7-6(5) 3-6 6-1#291Ilia Simakin

7-5 6-2#110Bu Yunchaokete

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

AVAleksandar VukicVukic

Last 15

2–2

9 core stats · 5 even

Alex BoltBoltAB

Dead-even recent form — the edges are in serve.

Serve · 0–2 · 3 even

1st Serve In57.5%+7.9pp65.4%

1st Serve Won71.6%—70.9%

2nd Serve Won52.3%+3.8pp56.1%

Aces / Match6.9—6.8

Double Faults / Match1.7—1.5

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won35.4%+3.2pp32.2%

Pressure · 1–0 · 1 even

Break Pts Converted37.5%+4.2pp33.3%

Break Pts Saved60.6%—60.9%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

Total Pts Won49.7%—49.2%

Serve · 0–2 · 3 even

57.5%1st Serve In+7.9pp65.4%

71.6%1st Serve Won—70.9%

52.3%2nd Serve Won+3.8pp56.1%

6.9Aces / Match—6.8

1.7Double Faults / Match—1.5

Return · 1–0

35.4%Return Pts Won+3.2pp32.2%

Pressure · 1–0 · 1 even

37.5%Break Pts Converted+4.2pp33.3%

60.6%Break Pts Saved—60.9%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

49.7%Total Pts Won—49.2%

Aleksandar Vukic

Alex Bolt

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Aleksandar Vukic

Aleksandar Vukic

Under 22.5

Aleksandar Vukic 2-0

Under 2.5

Result1 of 1 landed

Games1 of 3 landed

Sets3 of 3 landed

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Head-to-Head

Aleksandar Vukic

Alex Bolt

Stat Battle