ATP BastadFinished

Predictions graded

Jesper De Jong #732Vilius Gaubas #129Lithuania0

Sets 7-6 · 7-5Mon 13 Jul 2026, 14:05 Predictions gradedFirst RoundClay

Predictions7–188%

Edges5–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageJesper De Jong · 56 places

Jesper De Jong

ATP bio lists clay as his favourite surface. He reached a career-high No. 71 on 5 January 2026. Bastad was his first ATP Tour final in July 2025.

Current ranking: #73
Peak ranking: #71 · 2026
Current age: 26
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 180 cm

Vilius Gaubas

Lithuania

Public ATP/Wikipedia bios do not clearly state a preferred surface. His listed Challenger finals and titles are all on clay, and he reached a career-high No. 101 on 2 March 2026. He has worked with Guillermo Garcia-Lopez since 2022.

Current ranking: #129
Peak ranking: #101 · 2026
Current age: 21
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 178 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 12 Jul 2026, 07:23 · Europe/Bucharest

Jesper De Jong’s superior clay record, Bastad final experience, and strong serve make him a solid favorite against Vilius Gaubas.

Back De Jong to win and cover a 2-0 set betting line, with the match likely to go over 21.5 total games. Avoid Gaubas +2.5 games and over 2.5 sets, as De Jong’s front-running ability should limit the Lithuanian’s chances.

Context

De Jong reached the Bastad final in July 2025.
- He has a 19-11 clay record in 2026, including wins over top-30 players Khachanov and Hijikata.
- His career clay win percentage (61%) is higher than Gaubas' (59%).
Gaubas won a five-set match against Lajovic on 25 June and a three-setter against Basilashvili on 7 July.
- He lost in straight sets to Diaz Acosta on 9 July, suggesting possible fatigue.
- De Jong had a shorter Wimbledon second-round loss on 1 July, giving him more rest.
De Jong won 6-3, 6-4 in the first round of a 2025 hard-court event.
- In that match, De Jong won 77% of first-serve points and saved break points effectively.
- Gaubas' second-serve win rate was only 41% in that match.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.44
The read
De Jong's superior clay pedigree, recent top-level wins, and H2H edge make him a strong favorite.
- De Jong has a 19-11 clay record in 2026, including a Bastad final in 2025.
- Gaubas is 14-16 on clay in 2026, with a 59% career win rate on the surface.
- De Jong won their only H2H meeting 6-3 6-4 on hard court in 2025.
- De Jong's recent form includes wins over top-30 players Khachanov and Hijikata.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonJesper De JongEstimated chance72%

Games3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.73
The read
Both players' recent matches have trended toward higher game totals, suggesting a competitive match.
- De Jong's last 5 matches averaged 22.4 games per match.
- Gaubas' last 5 matches averaged 21.6 games per match.
- Their H2H match had 19 games, but both players have been involved in longer matches recently.
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The first set is likely to be tight given both players' serve effectiveness and recent set lengths.
- De Jong's last 5 first sets averaged 10.2 games.
- Gaubas' last 5 first sets averaged 9.8 games.
- Both players have strong first-serve win percentages, which can lead to longer sets.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Gaubas' resilience and De Jong's occasional lapses could extend the second set.
- De Jong's last 5 second sets averaged 10.0 games.
- Gaubas' last 5 second sets averaged 9.6 games.
- Gaubas has a 64% deciding set win rate, indicating he fights back in later sets.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.50
The read
De Jong's strong first-set record and Gaubas' recent slow starts point to a De Jong first set.
- De Jong has an 87% first-set win conversion rate in his career.
- Gaubas has lost the first set in 6 of his last 10 matches.
- De Jong's first-serve win percentage (71%) is higher than Gaubas' (65%).
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonJesper De JongEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.45
The read
De Jong's ability to close out matches and Gaubas' weaker second serve give De Jong the edge in set 2.
- De Jong has won 54% of deciding sets, showing resilience in tight matches.
- Gaubas' second-serve win rate (50%) is slightly lower than De Jong's (51%).
- De Jong's return points won (41%) matches Gaubas' but against stronger opponents.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonJesper De JongEstimated chance60%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The H2H showed high double fault counts, and De Jong's higher rate could push the total over.
- De Jong's double fault rate is 3.9%, Gaubas' is 2.6%.
- In their H2H, De Jong had 6 double faults, Gaubas 4.
- Both players have moderate double fault rates, but pressure situations could increase errors.
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsOver 5.5Estimated chance50%

Head-to-Head

1-0 (1 meetings)

W6-3 6-4Jesper De Jong#73vVilius Gaubas#129Aug 18, 2025

1 total meetings

Jesper De Jong

11W 4L

6-1 7-5 6-4#27Joao Fonseca

7-6(4) 3-6 5-7 6-4 6-3#82Rinky Hijikata

6-3 7-5#234Laslo Djere

6-3 6-2#163Roberto Carballes Baena

2-6 7-6(7) 6-2#359Enrico Dalla Valle

6-3 4-6 6-1#195Marco Cecchinato

6-2 4-6 6-4#363Federico Bondioli

6-1 7-6(3)#357Ognjen Milic

7-6(3) 6-4 6-1#3Alexander Zverev

7-5 5-7 6-2 6-7(2) 6-2#22Karen Khachanov

6-3 6-1 6-3#174Federico Cina

6-3 3-6 6-3 6-4#109Stan Wawrinka

7-5 6-3#144Michael Zheng

4-6 6-1 6-3#158Liam Draxl

7-6(4) 7-6(5)#270Fajing Sun

Vilius Gaubas

7W 8L

6-4 6-2#120Facundo Diaz Acosta

6-3 6-7(5) 6-2#111Nikoloz Basilashvili

6-3 6-4 7-6(2)#139Kyrian Jacquet

3-6 6-4 3-6 6-3 6-4#153Dusan Lajovic

7-6(5) 7-6(5)#273Henry Searle

4-6 6-3 6-2#192Michael Mmoh

6-4 6-0#280Miguel Damas

4-6 6-4 6-2#172Timofey Skatov

6-4 6-2 2-6 7-5#80Luca Van Assche

6-3 6-1#119Pablo Llamas Ruiz

4-6 6-3 6-4#236Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva

6-4 6-1#889Federico Coria

3-6 6-4 6-3#334Petr Brunclik

6-3 2-6 6-1#231Frederico Ferreira Silva

6-4 6-2#117Leandro Riedi