MexicoWTA GuadalajaraFinishedFeatured

Predictions graded

Peyton Stearns #57United States0Iva Jovic #16United States2

Sets 4-6 · 2-6Sat 19 Sept 2026, 23:10 Predictions gradedFinalHard

Predictions9–375%

Edges4–450%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageIva Jovic · 41 places

Peyton Stearns

United States

Reached a career-high No. 28 on May 19, 2025. The Cincinnati-born American lists hard court as her favourite surface.

Current ranking: #57
Peak ranking: #28 · 2025
Current age: 24
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 173 cm

Iva Jovic

United States

Reached a career-high No. 16 in March 2026. Her stated favorite surface is grass, and she won her first WTA title at Guadalajara in 2025.

Current ranking: #16
Peak ranking: #16 · 2026
Current age: 18
Preferred surface: Grass
Hand: Right handed
Height: 173 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 19 Sep 2026, 22:32 · Europe/Bucharest

Jovic is the higher-ranked, steadier hard-court player and the defending champion, but Stearns has not dropped a set in four matches here and keeps matches close.

Jovic is the likely winner, yet the 1.3 price for her to win the match is too short. Stearns +2.5 games at 2.6, Stearns to win at 3.5, and under 2.5 sets at 1.45 are worth considering.

Context

The championship match pairs Stearns’s first appearance in a WTA 500 final with Jovic’s attempt to retain the Guadalajara title, defining the tournament stakes for both players.
- Stearns reached the final after defeating Liudmila Samsonova in the semifinal.
- Jovic reached the final after defeating Cristina Bucsa in the semifinal.
ConfirmedSources checked 19 Sep 2026, 22:31 · Europe/BucharestJovic, Stearns set all-American final in Guadalajarawww.wtatennis.com · 19 Sep 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 6

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Jovic is the higher-ranked player, has the steadier serve and the better break-point numbers on hard, and is back in a final she won last year.
- Hard-court last 11: 8-3, 55.4% games won, 69.6% sets won
- Hard-court second-serve points won 49.2% and only 2.2 double faults per match
- Hard-court break points saved 60.6% and converted 49.5%
- Defending champion and in a second straight Guadalajara final
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonIva JovicEstimated chance60%

Games3 of 6 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Stearns has not been beaten heavily on hard and regularly takes enough games to stay within this line.
- Stearns' only 0-2 loss in 11 hard-court matches came against Gauff
- Her last six completed matches all featured at least eight games won
- Jovic's three-set win over Eala finished 7-5 3-6 7-5
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostPeyton Stearns +6.5Estimated chance81%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Stearns has consistently taken games even in defeat, so this line gives her room.
- Stearns has taken at least five games in each of her last six completed matches
- She lost 3-6 6-3 6-2 to Dart, still taking eight games
- Only one of her last 11 hard-court matches ended 0-2
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostPeyton Stearns +4.5Estimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.60
The read
Stearns has been winning by small margins and rarely loses heavily, so a narrow Jovic win still covers this line.
- Stearns' four wins this week came by margins of 5, 3, 5 and 7 games
- She has not lost a set in Guadalajara
- Her 7-5 and 6-4 set wins keep margins narrow
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostPeyton Stearns +2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.20
The read
Opening sets for both players regularly reach ten games, with Stearns in particular often needing a tiebreak.
- Stearns' opening sets average 9.5 games on hard, Jovic's 10.3
- Stearns has had four first-set tiebreaks in 11 hard matches, Jovic two
- Both players' opening sets often reach 10 games
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second-set totals on hard have consistently sat just below ten games for both players.
- Stearns' second sets average 9.2 games, Jovic's 9.6
- Only two second-set tiebreaks across their 22 hard-court matches
- Both players close out second sets relatively quickly
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 1.70
The read
Straight-set finishes dominate these records, which keeps the likely total around the line.
- Stearns has finished 7 of 11 hard matches in straight sets, Jovic 10 of 11
- Two-set wins for both players typically total around 19-20 games
- Jovic's hard-court average is 21.0 games per match
BetBugs · Total GameswonUnder 21.5Estimated chance51%

Sets3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.45
The read
Straight-set finishes dominate both players' recent hard-court records.
- Jovic has finished 10 of her last 11 hard-court matches in straight sets
- Stearns has finished 7 of 11 in straight sets
- Set averages of 2.09 and 2.36 point to short matches
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance72%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Jovic has the stronger first-set record on hard and the steadier serve to start matches.
- Jovic has won the opening set in 8 of 11 hard-court matches
- Stearns has won 7 of 11 opening sets
- Jovic averages 10.3 games in opening sets, Stearns 9.5
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonIva JovicEstimated chance57%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.36
The read
Stearns' second-set record is padded by matches she was already trailing, so Jovic still holds the overall edge.
- Stearns has won 9 of 11 second sets on hard, Jovic 7 of 11
- Most of Stearns' second-set wins came after she had already lost the first set
- Jovic's hard-court second-serve points won is 49.2%
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonIva JovicEstimated chance54%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Most of these players' hard-court matches are decided without a tiebreak, especially Jovic's.
- Jovic has had a tiebreak in only 2 of 11 hard-court matches
- Stearns has avoided tiebreaks in 6 of 11
- Two-set wins for both players usually include one break per set
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance67%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Stearns' serve is the main source of double faults and pushes the combined total above the line.
- Stearns averages 5.2 double faults per hard-court match, Jovic 2.2
- Combined hard-court average is 7.4 double faults per match
- Stearns has 57 double faults in 11 hard-court matches
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 6.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined ace rate sits just above the line and longer matches add more.
- Stearns averages 3.9 aces per hard-court match, Jovic 2.8
- Combined hard-court average is 6.7 aces per match
- Both players average under four aces per match overall
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 6.5Estimated chance51%

Prediction history

Iva Jovic: 7/9 recent winner projections matched

7 of 9 comparable winner projections favouring Iva Jovic matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Iva Jovic9 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

3 Jul·WTA Wimbledon

#19Ekaterina Alexandrova1-2#16Iva Jovic

BetBugsIva Jovic to win·58%

Matched

3 Jul 2026

WTA Wimbledon

#19Ekaterina Alexandrova1-2#16Iva Jovic

Iva Jovic to win

58%probability

Iva Jovic won

Matched

1 Jul·WTA Wimbledon

#96Tatjana Maria0-2#16Iva Jovic

BetBugsIva Jovic to win·65%

Matched

1 Jul 2026

WTA Wimbledon

#96Tatjana Maria0-2#16Iva Jovic

Iva Jovic to win

65%probability

Iva Jovic won

Matched

29 Jun·WTA Wimbledon

#38Jaqueline Cristian0-2#17Iva Jovic

BetBugsIva Jovic to win·62%

Matched

29 Jun 2026

WTA Wimbledon

#38Jaqueline Cristian0-2#17Iva Jovic

Iva Jovic to win

62%probability

Iva Jovic won

Matched

10 Jun·WTA London

#19Iva Jovic2-0#33Alexandra Eala

BetBugsIva Jovic to win·65%

Matched

10 Jun 2026

WTA London

#19Iva Jovic2-0#33Alexandra Eala

Iva Jovic to win

65%probability

Iva Jovic won

Matched

9 Jun·WTA London

#19Iva Jovic2-0#58Antonia Ruzic

BetBugsIva Jovic to win·65%

Matched

9 Jun 2026

WTA London

#19Iva Jovic2-0#58Antonia Ruzic

Iva Jovic to win

65%probability

Iva Jovic won

Matched

Previous match context available

Peyton Stearns

8W 7L

7-6(7) 6-2#50Liudmila Samsonova 7-6(6) 6-4#169Sloane Stephens

6-2 7-5#30Diane Parry

6-3 6-2#139Emiliana Arango

3-6 6-3 6-2#112Harriet Dart

7-6(7) 1-6 7-5#36Clara Tauson

6-1 7-6(6)#112Harriet Dart

6-0 7-5#65Elena Gabriela Ruse

6-1 2-6 6-3#113Elvina Kalieva

6-1 6-2#165Tatiana Prozorova

6-7(5) 6-0 6-4#116Mary Stoiana

6-4 3-6 7-5#34Nikola Bartunkova

7-5 6-0#56Kimberly Birrell

7-5 6-3#428Emily Appleton

6-3 6-3#12Belinda Bencic

Iva Jovic

11W 4L

6-4 6-1#44Cristina Bucsa

6-2 6-1#57Magdalena Frech

7-6(5) 6-4#58Zeynep Sonmez

6-1 6-4#4Cori Gauff

7-5 3-6 7-5#18Alexandra Eala

6-4 6-4#106Francesca Jones

7-5 6-3#57Magdalena Frech

7-6(0) 7-6(5)#27Marie Bouzkova

6-4 6-3#49Tamara Korpatsch

6-3 6-4#81Alina Korneeva

6-3 7-5#74Magda Linette

4-6 6-3 6-1#3Jessica Pegula

6-3 3-6 6-4#21Ekaterina Alexandrova

6-1 6-2#80Tatjana Maria

7-6(1) 6-0#55Jaqueline Cristian

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

PSPeyton StearnsStearns

Last 15

2–7

9 core stats · 0 even

Iva JovicJovicIJ

Iva Jovic carries the stronger recent form — Peyton Stearns's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–3

1st Serve In56.9%+1.0pp57.9%

1st Serve Won66.0%+2.6pp63.4%

2nd Serve Won43.8%+6.9pp50.7%

Aces / Match3.5+0.82.7

Double Faults / Match4.52.4 fewer2.1

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won45.0%+1.3pp46.3%

Pressure · 0–2

Break Pts Converted41.2%+9.2pp50.4%

Break Pts Saved54.7%+8.3pp63.0%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won50.6%+1.6pp52.2%

Serve · 2–3

56.9%1st Serve In+1.0pp57.9%

66.0%1st Serve Won+2.6pp63.4%

43.8%2nd Serve Won+6.9pp50.7%

3.5Aces / Match+0.82.7

4.5Double Faults / Match2.4 fewer2.1

Return · 0–1

45.0%Return Pts Won+1.3pp46.3%

Pressure · 0–2

41.2%Break Pts Converted+9.2pp50.4%

54.7%Break Pts Saved+8.3pp63.0%

Points · 0–1

50.6%Total Pts Won+1.6pp52.2%

Peyton Stearns

Iva Jovic

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Under 2.5

Peyton Stearns +2.5

Over 9.5

Peyton Stearns

Peyton Stearns

Peyton Stearns 2-0

Iva Jovic

Under 21.5

Result1 of 1 landed

Games3 of 6 landed

Sets3 of 3 landed

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Peyton Stearns

Iva Jovic

Stat Battle