MexicoWTA GuadalajaraFinishedFeatured

Predictions graded

Liudmila Samsonova #50Russia0Peyton Stearns #60United States2

Sets 6-7 · 2-6Sat 19 Sept 2026, 01:00 Predictions gradedSemi-FinalHard

Predictions4–357%

Edges1–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageLiudmila Samsonova · 10 places

Liudmila Samsonova

Russia

Samsonova, 27, is the right-hander in this matchup. Her career-high No. 12 came in 2023; hard courts are her noted strongest surface.

Current ranking: #50
Peak ranking: #12 · 2023
Current age: 27
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 182 cm

Peyton Stearns

United States

Stearns, 24, is the right-hander in this matchup. Her career-high No. 28 came in May 2025; she lists hard courts as her favourite surface.

Current ranking: #60
Peak ranking: #28 · 2025
Current age: 24
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 173 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 18 Sep 2026, 16:48 · Europe/Bucharest

Samsonova vs Stearns is a near-even Guadalajara hard-court semifinal: Samsonova's first-serve points won (70.7%) gives her a slim 56% edge, but Stearns' return game (47.4% RPW) and straight-set run make the 1.65 favourite price a negative-EV pass.

Best angles are Over 21.5 games @ 1.80, Over 8.5 double faults, Over 6.5 aces, and Stearns +3.5 games; avoid Samsonova moneyline.

Context

Samsonova, ranked No. 50, has played 13 of her last 15 matches on hard and owns 138 career hard-court wins. Stearns, No. 60, has a 17-12 hard-court record in 2026, the heaviest surface line of her season.
Samsonova's window is stronger: 10-5 with a 9-4 hard-court split, and all five defeats against top-70 opponents, including No. 1 Elena Rybakina and No. 4 Cori Gauff. Stearns is 8-7 in the same window and lost to Harriet Dart (No. 112) and Elvina Kalieva (No. 113), but she has not dropped a set in Guadalajara. Season-long hard-court volume still favours Stearns 17-12 to 13-12, so this is a modest form edge rather than a wide one.
- Samsonova last 15: 10-5 overall (66.7%) and 9-4 on hard across 13 tracked hard-court matches, with a quarter-final win over No. 10 Marta Kostyuk in Guadalajara.
- Samsonova's five defeats came against Rybakina (No. 1), Gauff (No. 4), Diana Shnaider (No. 13), Marie Bouzkova (No. 27) and Maya Joint (No. 68).
- Stearns last 15: 8-7 overall (53.3%) and 6-4 on hard across 10 tracked hard-court matches; two of her losses came against Dart (No. 112) and Kalieva (No. 113).
- Season-long hard-court volume points the other way: Stearns is 17-12 on hard in 2026, Samsonova 13-12.
Samsonova is a first-strike server: 68% of career first-serve points won against 48% on second serves, with 1,939 career double faults in 600 matches. Stearns serves a 65% career first-serve rate and wins 46% of career return points.
In the last 15, Samsonova has averaged 6.3 double faults and 53.6% first serves in across 14 tracked matches, which gives Stearns' 45.1% return-points-won rate (47.4% on hard) something to work with. Samsonova's counter is the quality of the serves that land: 71.3% first-serve points won against 65.8%, and 64.1% of break points saved against 55.6%. The useful question for this match is how many second serves Stearns actually gets to attack.
- Samsonova: 6.3 double faults per match and 53.6% first serves in across 14 of her 15 last-15 matches; on hard the double-fault rate is also 6.3 per match across 12 tracked matches.
- Stearns: 4.1 double faults per match and 58% first serves in across all 15 tracked matches, so she concedes fewer free points on her own serve.
- Samsonova's serve still scores: 71.3% first-serve points won and 64.1% of break points saved (13 tracked); Stearns wins 65.8% of first-serve points and saves 55.6%.
- Stearns' return numbers are higher in the window: 45.1% of return points won overall and 47.4% on hard, against 41.5% and 41.2% for Samsonova.
Guadalajara is a WTA 500 hard-court event, and the semifinal follows the quarter-finals by one day, so recovery time is short for both players. Court time in that window is the clearest measurable difference between them.
Samsonova has spent 85 games and three three-set matches reaching this semifinal, including a 34-game second round against Kayla Day that ended in two tiebreaks. Stearns has won six sets here in 60 games, and her last-15 hard-court matches have averaged 119.8 minutes against Samsonova's 132.3. A long semifinal is where the extra court time would matter; a short one keeps the workload out of the result.
- Samsonova's Guadalajara matches: 21 games (7-6(6) 6-2 vs Jacquemot), 34 games (7-6(4) 2-6 7-6(5) vs Day) and 30 games (4-6 6-2 7-5 vs Kostyuk) — 85 games in three wins.
- Stearns' Guadalajara matches: 17 games (6-3 6-2 vs Arango), 20 games (6-2 7-5 vs Parry) and 23 games (7-6(6) 6-4 vs Stephens) — 60 games and six sets won without dropping a set.
- Last-15 averages: Samsonova 132.3 minutes per hard-court match (12 tracked) and 137.7 overall (14 tracked); Stearns 119.8 on hard (10 tracked) and 111.2 overall (15 tracked).

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Samsonova's higher-quality recent wins and stronger first-serve points won give her a slim edge over Stearns in a near-even hard-court semifinal, with Stearns' better return numbers the main counterweight.
- Samsonova is 10-5 in her last 15 matches (9-4 on hard, 69.2%) vs Stearns 8-7 (6-4 hard, 60%) – last-15 window.
- All five of Samsonova's last-15 losses came to opponents ranked #68 or better (Gauff #4, Rybakina #1, Shnaider #13); Stearns lost to #112 Dart and #113 Kalieva in the same window.
- Guadalajara this week: Samsonova beat #10 Kostyuk 4-6 6-2 7-5; Stearns won straight-set matches vs Stephens, Parry and Arango.
- Hard-court serve profile favours Samsonova: 70.7% first-serve points won vs Stearns 65.8%, offsetting Stearns' return edge (47.4% vs 41.2% RPW) over the last-15 hard samples (12 vs 10 matches).
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostLiudmila SamsonovaEstimated chance56%

Games3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
In a tight matchup with high break variance, Stearns' competitive game share (55.4% on hard) and Samsonova's recent narrow margins give the +3.5 cover a solid cushion.
- Samsonova's three Guadalajara wins came with game margins of +4 (17-13 vs Kostyuk), -2 (16-18 vs Day) and +5 (13-8 vs Jacquemot).
- Stearns has won 55.4% of hard-court games in the last-15 window (124/224) vs Samsonova's 52.5% (180/343).
- Stearns is 3-0 in Guadalajara without dropping a set, so any Stearns match win clears +3.5 automatically.
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonPeyton Stearns +3.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.80
The read
Blending one marathon-prone player (Samsonova) with Stearns' solid return game makes a 22+ game total the more likely outcome under the recent-form window.
- Last-15 window: Samsonova's matches average 26.9 games (404 games in 15), Stearns' 21.9 (328 in 15).
- Guadalajara game totals – Samsonova: 30, 34, 21; Stearns: 23, 20, 17.
- Samsonova's volatile serve (54.3% first serves in, 6.3 double faults per hard match) and Stearns' 47.4% hard-court return points won create break-heavy, long games.
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Four of the pair's six Guadalajara opening sets exceeded 9.5 games, and Samsonova's break-prone serving profile supports a long first set.
- Samsonova's opening sets in Guadalajara: 10, 13, 13 games (all above 9.5).
- Stearns' opening sets this week: 13, 8, 9 games.
- Samsonova's 54.3% first-serve-in and 6.3 double faults per hard match inflate early-game counts (last-15 hard sample, 12 matches).
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
A near coin-flip opening set, tilted slightly to Samsonova because her first-serve points-won edge gives her the more reliable early hold profile.
- Samsonova took the opening set in 2 of 3 Guadalajara matches (7-6(6) vs Jacquemot, 7-6(4) vs Day, lost 4-6 vs Kostyuk).
- Stearns won first sets in all three Guadalajara matches (7-6(6), 6-2, 6-3).
- Hard-court first-serve points won: Samsonova 70.7% vs Stearns 65.8% (last-15 window, 12 vs 10 matches tracked).
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostLiudmila SamsonovaEstimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Samsonova's heavy three-set tendency in the recent window, combined with Stearns' capacity to win sets from a strong return position, gives a deciding set a slight edge in this semifinal.
- Samsonova has played a deciding set in 10 of her last 15 matches (40 sets in 15); Stearns in 5 of 15 (35 sets in 15).
- All three of Samsonova's Guadalajara matches went three sets (Kostyuk, Day, Jacquemot).
- Stearns' Guadalajara wins included a 7-6(6) first set vs Stephens and a 7-5 second set vs Parry, showing two-set finishes are not automatic.
BetBugs · Total SetslostOver 2.5Estimated chance51%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both players are actively double-fault-prone on hard courts, with Samsonova's 6.3-per-match rate the strongest Core 5 serve-structure signal pushing the combined count past 8.5.
- Hard-court last-15: Samsonova 6.3 double faults per match (75 in 12), Stearns 5.1 (51 in 10) – combined ≈11.4 vs the 8.5 line.
- Samsonova totals 88 double faults in 14 tracked last-15 matches, a structural serving pattern rather than a one-off.
- Stearns adds 62 double faults in 15 tracked matches (4.1 per match), so both sides contribute.
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 8.5Estimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players average close to four aces per hard-court match and a likely 2-3 set match multiplies service games, pushing the combined ace count over 6.5.
- Hard-court last-15: Samsonova 3.8 aces per match (46 in 12), Stearns 4.2 (42 in 10) – combined average ≈8 per match.
- First-serve points won on hard: Samsonova 70.7%, Stearns 65.8% (last-15 window, 12 vs 10 matches).
- Samsonova's Guadalajara run featured two three-set matches with tiebreaks, adding service-game volume.
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 6.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Two closely matched servers with recent tiebreak-heavy records (three in Samsonova's last three matches) make at least one tiebreak slightly more likely than not.
- Samsonova's last three Guadalajara matches produced three tiebreak sets (two vs Day, one vs Jacquemot).
- Within the last-15 window Stearns has played tiebreak sets vs Stephens (7-6(6)), Tauson (7-6(7)), Dart (7-6(6)) and Stoiana (6-7(5)).
- Samsonova's 63.5% break-point save rate on hard (last-15, 11 matches) helps her hold enough to force set-deciding games.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonYesEstimated chance55%

Prediction history

Liudmila Samsonova’s match-winner projections have under-delivered: 3 of 8 fulfilled

Liudmila Samsonova has 3 fulfilled predictions from 8 samples in this winner-history view. Her 3 fulfilled results are below the 4.9 expected from the supplied probabilities, and all five missed predictions were Samsonova losses. The current 56% estimate sits within her historical 55%–65% range.

Recent evidence for Liudmila Samsonova8 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

31 Jul·WTA Washington

#18Diana Shnaider2-0#70Liudmila Samsonova

BetBugsLiudmila Samsonova to win·55%

Missed

31 Jul 2026

WTA Washington

#18Diana Shnaider2-0#70Liudmila Samsonova

Liudmila Samsonova to win

55%probability

Diana Shnaider won

Missed

29 Jul·WTA Washington

#42Xinyu Wang0-2#70Liudmila Samsonova

BetBugsLiudmila Samsonova to win·58%

Matched

29 Jul 2026

WTA Washington

#42Xinyu Wang0-2#70Liudmila Samsonova

Liudmila Samsonova to win

58%probability

Liudmila Samsonova won

Matched

30 Jun·WTA Wimbledon

#116Polina Kudermetova0-2#42Liudmila Samsonova

BetBugsLiudmila Samsonova to win·62%

Matched

30 Jun 2026

WTA Wimbledon

#116Polina Kudermetova0-2#42Liudmila Samsonova

Liudmila Samsonova to win

62%probability

Liudmila Samsonova won

Matched

15 Jun·WTA Berlin

#22Elise Mertens2-1#35Liudmila Samsonova

BetBugsLiudmila Samsonova to win·58%

Missed

15 Jun 2026

WTA Berlin

#22Elise Mertens2-1#35Liudmila Samsonova

Liudmila Samsonova to win

58%probability

Elise Mertens won

Missed

8 Jun·WTA London

#171Harriet Dart2-1#27Liudmila Samsonova

BetBugsLiudmila Samsonova to win·65%

Missed

8 Jun 2026

WTA London

#171Harriet Dart2-1#27Liudmila Samsonova

Liudmila Samsonova to win

65%probability

Harriet Dart won

Missed

Previous match context available

Liudmila Samsonova

10W 5L

4-6 6-2 7-5#10Marta Kostyuk

7-6(4) 2-6 7-6(5)#123Kayla Day

7-6(6) 6-2#156Elsa Jacquemot

3-6 6-2 6-2#68Maya Joint

2-6 6-4 6-1#4Cori Gauff

7-6(5) 5-7 7-5#78Yulia Putintseva

6-4 4-6 6-4#1Elena Rybakina

7-5 6-7(3) 6-2#68Maya Joint

6-1 7-5#38Barbora Krejcikova

7-6(9) 7-5#51Janice Tjen

6-3 6-4#13Diana Shnaider

6-2 6-2#40Xinyu Wang

3-6 6-4 6-4#23Madison Keys

4-6 7-6(3) 6-4#27Marie Bouzkova

6-4 4-6 6-2#13Diana Shnaider

Peyton Stearns

8W 7L

7-6(6) 6-4#169Sloane Stephens

6-2 7-5#30Diane Parry

6-3 6-2#139Emiliana Arango

3-6 6-3 6-2#112Harriet Dart

7-6(7) 1-6 7-5#36Clara Tauson

6-1 7-6(6)#112Harriet Dart

6-0 7-5#65Elena Gabriela Ruse

6-1 2-6 6-3#113Elvina Kalieva

6-1 6-2#165Tatiana Prozorova

6-7(5) 6-0 6-4#116Mary Stoiana

6-4 3-6 7-5#34Nikola Bartunkova

7-5 6-0#56Kimberly Birrell

7-5 6-3#428Emily Appleton

6-3 6-3#12Belinda Bencic

6-4 6-0#42Daria Snigur

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

LSLiudmila SamsonovaSamsonova

Last 15

4–4

9 core stats · 1 even

Peyton StearnsStearnsPS

Dead-even recent form — the edges are in serve.

Serve · 3–2

1st Serve In14/15 · 15/1553.6%+4.4pp58.0%

1st Serve Won14/15 · 15/1571.3%+5.5pp65.8%

2nd Serve Won14/15 · 15/1545.9%+2.4pp43.5%

Aces / Match14/15 · 15/154.0+0.33.7

Double Faults / Match14/15 · 15/156.32.2 fewer4.1

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won14/15 · 15/1541.5%+3.6pp45.1%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted13/15 · 15/1539.8%+2.1pp41.9%

Break Pts Saved13/15 · 15/1564.1%+8.5pp55.6%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

Total Pts Won14/15 · 15/1550.6%—50.7%

Serve · 3–2

53.6%1st Serve In14/15 · 15/15+4.4pp58.0%

71.3%1st Serve Won14/15 · 15/15+5.5pp65.8%

45.9%2nd Serve Won14/15 · 15/15+2.4pp43.5%

4.0Aces / Match14/15 · 15/15+0.33.7

6.3Double Faults / Match14/15 · 15/152.2 fewer4.1

Return · 0–1

41.5%Return Pts Won14/15 · 15/15+3.6pp45.1%

Pressure · 1–1

39.8%Break Pts Converted13/15 · 15/15+2.1pp41.9%

64.1%Break Pts Saved13/15 · 15/15+8.5pp55.6%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

50.6%Total Pts Won14/15 · 15/15—50.7%