PolandSzczecin - PolandFinished

Predictions graded

Tom Gentzsch #185Germany1Luka Mikrut #184Croatia2

Sets 3-6 · 6-4 · 3-6Fri 18 Sept 2026, 13:10 Predictions gradedQuarter-FinalClay

Predictions2–529%

Edges0–10%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageLuka Mikrut · 1 places

Tom Gentzsch

Germany

Reached a career-high No. 185 on August 3, 2026. Two of his three Challenger finals have come on clay, but no reliable source explicitly identifies a preferred surface.

Current ranking: #185
Peak ranking: #185 · 2026
Current age: 22
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 191 cm

Luka Mikrut

Croatia

Croatian right-hander, age 22, whose verified career-best ATP singles ranking is No. 159, achieved in October 2025. ITF lists clay as his preferred surface.

Current ranking: #184
Peak ranking: #159 · 2025
Current age: 22
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 188 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 17 Sep 2026, 03:21 · Europe/Bucharest

Gentzsch is a modest, ranking-backed favorite over Mikrut on Szczecin clay, but near-identical games-won rates and no H2H make this a tight grinder.

The match-winner prices offer no value on either side; the cleaner angles are over 21.5 games, over 2.5 sets, and a tiebreak in the match, with Gentzsch 2-1 the likeliest scoreline.

Context

Gentzsch, 166th, is a 191cm right-hander whose career is built on clay, with 138 of his 234 tour-level wins coming on the surface. Mikrut, 239th, is a 188cm right-hander with 126 of his 154 career wins on clay.
Gentzsch's 76.9% clay record over 13 tracked matches and Mikrut's 72.7% over 11 are close, and both players won their most recent clay match in straight sets. The gap in overall last-15 record (73.3% vs 60%) is mostly driven by Mikrut's hard-court losses, so on this surface the form lines are nearly level.
- Gentzsch last-15 clay record: 10-3 (76.9%) across 13 tracked matches, with 55.9% of games won.
- Mikrut last-15 clay record: 8-3 (72.7%) across 11 tracked matches, with 54.5% of games won.
- Gentzsch's overall last-15 record is 11-4; Mikrut's is 9-6, with three of his losses coming on hard courts.
- Both players won their most recent clay match in Szczecin in straight sets.
Gentzsch serves a higher first-serve percentage on clay (65.8%) than Mikrut (56.4%), but Mikrut's second-serve points won are notably higher.
Gentzsch's 49.3% second-serve points won on clay is the weaker number, and his 4.2 double faults per clay match add pressure. Mikrut's 1.3 double faults per clay match and 56.8% second-serve points won suggest he is less likely to hand over free points in longer baseline exchanges.
- Gentzsch clay last-15: 49.3% second-serve points won, 4.2 double faults per match across 13 matches.
- Mikrut clay last-15: 56.8% second-serve points won, 1.3 double faults per match across 11 matches.
- Gentzsch's first-serve-in rate on clay is 65.8%; Mikrut's is 56.4%.
- Both samples cover at least 11 clay matches, so the serve splits are reasonably supported.
Mikrut, 239th, has played two matches in Szczecin this week, including a three-set win over Robert Strombachs on 15 September.
The retirement win over Djere lasted only 17 games, so Mikrut enters the quarter-final with less cumulative court time than a normal two-match run would suggest. That is a mild workload advantage, but it also means his recent clay sample includes a match that did not reach a natural conclusion.
- Mikrut's 16 September win over Laslo Djere ended at 6-3 2-2 ret. after 17 games.
- Mikrut also played a three-set match against Robert Strombachs on 15 September, winning 4-6 6-4 6-0.
- Gentzsch has played two clay matches in Szczecin, both in straight sets, on 14 and 16 September.
- No current injury or withdrawal note is attached to either player in the supplied intel.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Lean

Tom Gentzsch

1.55fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 64.5%

0.0ppshort

Gentzsch's modest clay form and ranking edge are real but not large enough to justify a price shorter than the model estimate, so the quoted favorite offers no positive value.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.55
The read
Gentzsch holds a modest but consistent edge in recent clay form, return-point pressure and ranking, with the retirement-assisted nature of Mikrut's last win adding uncertainty rather than confidence.
- Gentzsch last-15 record 73.3% (11-4) vs Mikrut 60% (9-6); clay-only split 76.9% (10-3) vs 72.7% (8-3)
- Gentzsch clay last-15: 55.9% games won, 41% return points won, 63.6% BP saved; Mikrut clay: 54.5% games, 38.1% return points
- Gentzsch beat Krumich 6-3 6-4 and Wazny in Szczecin this week; Mikrut's QF win over Djere came via 6-3 2-2 ret. (opponent retirement)
- Ranking 166 vs 239; Gentzsch career clay 138 wins vs Mikrut 126, both clay-primary players
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostTom GentzschEstimated chance62%

Games1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Two closely matched clay grinders with near-identical games-won rates and long recent match durations point to a drawn-out Bo3 exceeding 21.5 games.
- Gentzsch last-15 average match duration 110.1 minutes (112.3 on clay); Mikrut 101.4 minutes (100.3 on clay)
- Gentzsch clay last-15 games won 55.9% (184/329); Mikrut clay 54.5% (133/244) — narrow margins imply long sets
- Both players' recent Szczecin matches featured multiple 7-5/7-6 sets (Gentzsch vs Wazny 7-5 6-7 6-0; Mikrut vs Strombachs three sets)
- No H2H meetings to compress the expected game count
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance58%

Sets1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Gentzsch's higher first-serve percentage and clay hold profile give him a slight early-set edge, though Mikrut's strong career first-set conversion keeps this close.
- Gentzsch career first-set win conversion 86% vs Mikrut 90% (long-term baseline, near parity)
- Gentzsch last-15 clay: 65.8% first serves in, 72.6% first-serve points won; Mikrut clay 56.4% first serves in
- Gentzsch opened with 6-3 6-4 vs Krumich and 7-5 first set vs Wazny in Szczecin; Mikrut dropped first set 4-6 to Strombachs
- Mikrut's 6-3 opening set vs Djere ended in opponent retirement, limiting read on his current set-1 durability
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostTom GentzschEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Comparable clay profiles and recent three-set history make a deciding set a slightly better than even proposition, though straight-set outcomes remain plausible.
- Gentzsch last-15: 37 sets played across 15 matches (2.47 sets/match), 24 sets won
- Mikrut last-15: 34 sets across 15 matches (2.27 sets/match), with three-set wins over Strombachs and Moeller
- Gentzsch's recent Szczecin run included a three-setter vs Wazny (7-5 6-7 6-0)
- Both players show 51-57% deciding-set win rates, indicating frequent three-set exposure
BetBugs · Total SetswonOver 2.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Gentzsch's elevated clay double-fault rate plus Mikrut's lower first-serve percentage push combined double faults to the line, with a slight over lean.
- Gentzsch last-15 double faults per match 3.9 overall, 4.2 on clay (13 matches tracked)
- Mikrut last-15 double faults per match 1.7 overall, 1.3 on clay (11 matches tracked)
- Combined clay average ≈ 5.5 double faults per match, right at the line
- Gentzsch's 65.8% clay first-serve-in rate vs Mikrut's 56.4% suggests Mikrut faces more second-serve pressure
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 5.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Tight clay sets and both players' frequent recent tiebreak exposure make at least one tiebreak in the match a slightly better than even proposition.
- Gentzsch's recent Szczecin matches included a 7-6(1) set vs Giunta and 7-6(4) vs Kym in August
- Mikrut's recent matches include 7-6(5) vs Marti Pujolras and 7-6(5) vs Forejtek in 2026
- Gentzsch career tiebreak win rate 60%; Mikrut 56%
- Both players' last-15 games-won rates (55.9% and 54.5% on clay) indicate narrow set margins
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Combined clay ace rates from well-covered last-15 windows sit above the line, though clay conditions and return quality keep this a low-confidence lean.
- Gentzsch last-15 aces per match 6.9 (6.7 on clay, 13 matches tracked); Mikrut 5.3 (5.1 on clay, 11 matches tracked)
- Combined clay average aces per match ≈ 11.8, above the 9.5 line
- Gentzsch 191cm and Mikrut 188cm, both right-handed with two-handed backhands
- Aces tracked across full 15-match windows for both players
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 9.5Estimated chance52%

Prediction history

Tom Gentzsch has been reliable when projected to win, fulfilling 7 of 9 match-winner predictions

Tom Gentzsch fulfilled 7 of 9 match-winner predictions, with an average estimated probability of 62.4% against 5.6 expected fulfilled predictions. His two missed results were both losses, and his matched predictions averaged 63.6% versus 58.5% for missed ones. The current 62% projection sits within his historical range of 55% to 72%, consistent with his recent evidence.

Recent evidence for Tom Gentzsch9 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

30 Jul·Bonn - Germany

#186Tom Gentzsch1-2#883Max Dahlin

BetBugsTom Gentzsch to win·62%

Missed

30 Jul 2026

Bonn - Germany

#186Tom Gentzsch1-2#883Max Dahlin

Tom Gentzsch to win

62%probability

Max Dahlin won

Missed

28 Jul·Bonn - Germany

#186Tom Gentzsch2-0#259Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva

BetBugsTom Gentzsch to win·62%

Matched

28 Jul 2026

Bonn - Germany

#186Tom Gentzsch2-0#259Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva

Tom Gentzsch to win

62%probability

Tom Gentzsch won

Matched

21 Jul·Tampere - Finland

#302Dali Blanch1-2#212Tom Gentzsch

BetBugsTom Gentzsch to win·58%

Matched

21 Jul 2026

Tampere - Finland

#302Dali Blanch1-2#212Tom Gentzsch

Tom Gentzsch to win

58%probability

Tom Gentzsch won

Matched

17 Jul·Bunschoten - Netherlands

#212Tom Gentzsch2-1#244Max Houkes

BetBugsTom Gentzsch to win·58%

Matched

17 Jul 2026

Bunschoten - Netherlands

#212Tom Gentzsch2-1#244Max Houkes

Tom Gentzsch to win

58%probability

Tom Gentzsch won

Matched

15 Jul·Bunschoten - Netherlands

#212Tom Gentzsch2-0#696Pieter De Lange

BetBugsTom Gentzsch to win·72%

Matched

15 Jul 2026

Bunschoten - Netherlands

#212Tom Gentzsch2-0#696Pieter De Lange

Tom Gentzsch to win

72%probability

Tom Gentzsch won

Matched

Previous match context available

Tom Gentzsch

11W 4L

6-3 6-4#256Martin Krumich 7-5 6-7(3) 6-0#813Alan Wazny

6-3 7-6(1)#386Massimo Giunta

7-6(4) 6-4#201Francesco Passaro

7-5 6-3#210Pol Martin Tiffon

6-4 7-6(4)#284Jerome Kym

6-4 6-4#116Zsombor Piros

6-3 7-6(5)#238Henri Squire

6-1 1-6 6-1#208Chun Hsin Tseng

6-3 6-7(5) 6-4#282Thiago Moura Monteiro

6-4 3-6 7-6(8)#896Max Dahlin

6-3 6-3#220Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva

6-2 6-7(5) 6-3#164Gauthier Onclin

4-6 6-2 6-0#236Andrej Nedic

6-7(3) 7-5 6-4#334Dali Blanch

Luka Mikrut

9W 6L

6-3 2-2 ret.#183Laslo Djere

4-6 6-4 6-0#428Robert Strombachs

6-2 6-4#151Nishesh Basavareddy

6-3 6-4#233Nikolas Sanchez-Izquierdo

7-5 7-6(3)#158Stefano Travaglia

6-4 6-4#188Diego Dedura

5-7 7-5 6-3#259Marvin Moeller

6-3 6-3#74Jan Choinski

7-6(5) 7-5#506Alex Marti Pujolras

6-4 6-4#442Nerman Fatic

6-1 6-2#150Chris Rodesch

6-4 3-6 6-2#352Justin Engel

1-6 7-6(5) 3-2 ret.#283Stefano Napolitano

6-3 7-6(5)#426Jonas Forejtek

3-6 7-5 6-2#143Pablo Llamas Ruiz

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

TGTom GentzschGentzsch

Last 15

4–3

9 core stats · 2 even

Luka MikrutMikrutLM

Tom Gentzsch carries the stronger recent form — Luka Mikrut's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

1st Serve In65.3%+6.1pp59.2%

1st Serve Won73.2%—72.9%

2nd Serve Won49.5%+6.4pp55.9%

Aces / Match6.9+1.65.3

Double Faults / Match3.92.2 fewer1.7

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won40.4%+4.1pp36.3%

Pressure · 0–1 · 1 even

Break Pts Converted43.6%—43.4%

Break Pts Saved63.6%+1.9pp65.5%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won52.4%+1.0pp51.4%

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

65.3%1st Serve In+6.1pp59.2%

73.2%1st Serve Won—72.9%

49.5%2nd Serve Won+6.4pp55.9%

6.9Aces / Match+1.65.3

3.9Double Faults / Match2.2 fewer1.7

Return · 1–0

40.4%Return Pts Won+4.1pp36.3%

Pressure · 0–1 · 1 even

43.6%Break Pts Converted—43.4%

63.6%Break Pts Saved+1.9pp65.5%

Points · 1–0

52.4%Total Pts Won+1.0pp51.4%